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Atascadero Buxton Report 8-08
Retail Site Assessment August 2008 Table of Contents Summary........................................................................................................................... 1 Atascadero’s Retail Site................................................................................................ 2 Primary Trade Area Analysis....................................................................................... 3 Secondary Trade Area Analysis.................................................................................. 5 Brief Segment Descriptions......................................................................................... 7 Appendix A: Leakage and Demand Analysis Appendix B: Demographic Report Buxton CommunityID Staff Amy Wetzel, Senior Vice President, Western Region, awetzel@buxtonco.com Philip Davis, Manager/Senior GIS Analyst, pdavis@buxtonco.com Scott Place, Senior GIS Analyst, splace@buxtonco.com All Buxton personnel may be reached by phone at 817.332.3681 Atascadero, CA 1 Summary Buxton has reviewed the site provided by the City of Atascadero on the basis of retail recruitment potential. This Retail Site Assessment booklet features maps of Traffic Way & El Camino Real’s trade areas. The Primary trade area has an estimated household count of 24,604, while the secondary trade area has an estimate household count of 53,170 homes. The Leakage/Surplus Analysis has yielded positive results where each trade area, primary and secondary, attracted consumers from outside the trade area for their goods and retail/restaurant spending. A review of segmentation for Atascadero’s primary trade area shows that segment 13 (Upward Bound), segment 27 (Middleburg Managers), segment 34 (White Picket Fences), segment 12 (Brite Lites, Ii’l City), segment 28 (Traditional Times), segment 9 (Big Fish, Small Pond), and segment 10 (Second City Elite) comprise a substantial portion of the dominant segment households found at the study site. Segment 5 (County Squires), segment 32 (New Homesteaders), segment 24 (Up-And-Comers), segment 53 (Mobility Blues), segment 63 (Family Thrifts), segment 62 (Hometown Trend), segment 60 (Park Bench Seniors), and segment 41 (Sunset City Blues) account for the remaining dominant segment households within Atascadero’s primary trade area. The secondary trade area has four dominant segments which are not dominant within the primary trade area. The main difference is segment 47 (City Startups), segment 35 (Boomtown Singles), segment 23 (Greenbelt Sports), and segment 11 (God’s Country). Each of these segments possess unique income and lifesytle characteristics that would attract a variety of retailers to Atascadero, CA. Atascadero, CA 2 Atascadero’s Retail Site To begin the CommunityID process, the City of Atascadero selected the site at Traffic Way & El Camino Real to be analyzed for possible retail development or revitalization. To more fully understand the retail potential of the selected site, Buxton conducted the following analyses: • A fifteen-minute primary trade area was delineated for the site • A twenty-five minute custom secondary trade area was delineated for the site • The customers in the trade areas were segmented according to buying habits and lifestyles • A profile of Atascadero’s customers within the trade areas was developed • The surplus and leakage for more than 36 product types and 74 store types was determined for each potential trade area The purpose of these analyses is to develop Atascadero’s Customer Profile. The Customer Profile is a snapshot of the customers that reside in Atascadero’s trade areas. Even though these consumers are complex and diverse, Buxton is able to capture and catalogue the extent to which potential demand for retailer’s goods and services are concentrated in the trade areas. By overlaying Atascadero’s Customer Profile with over 4,500 retail matching profiles in Buxton’s proprietary database, we are able to identify major categories of retail that are candidates for location at Atascadero. 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Polaris Dr. Fort Worth, Texas 76137 tel: 817.332.3681 fax:817.332.3686 e-mail:buxton@buxtonco.com http://www.buxtonco.com Shopping Centers GLA in thousands 1000+ 500 to 1000 Data Sources: Claritas, Inc., Prizm®NE, 2008 , InfoUSA, Inc., © 2008 , National Research Bureau, © 2008 , MediamarkResearch, Inc., © 2008 , Geographic Data Technology, Inc. © 2008 Atascadero, California: Trade Area Sitelllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll N 15 Minute Drive Time 042 Miles Atascadero, CA 3 Trade Area Segmentation TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL 666564636261605958575655545352515049484746454443424140393837363534333231302928272625242322212019181716151413121110987654321 27% 24% 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% DescriptionDominant Segments Households % of All Households 5 COUNTRY SQUIRES 1,213 4.93% 9 BIG FISH, SMALL POND 1,274 5.18% 10 SECOND CITY ELITE 1,243 5.05% 12 BRITE LITES, LI'L CITY 1,446 5.88% 13 UPWARD BOUND 1,930 7.84% 24 UP-AND-COMERS 1,152 4.68% 27 MIDDLEBURG MANAGERS 1,930 7.84% 28 TRADITIONAL TIMES 1,309 5.32% 32 NEW HOMESTEADERS 1,204 4.89% 34 WHITE PICKET FENCES 1,736 7.06% 41 SUNSET CITY BLUES 766 3.11% 53 MOBILITY BLUES 1,056 4.29% 60 PARK BENCH SENIORS 783 3.18% 62 HOMETOWN RETIRED 945 3.84% 63 FAMILY THRIFTS 1,039 4.22% Primary Trade Area Drive-Time Trade Area The map on the opposite page depicts the primary trade area for Atascadero. The primary trade area consists of a fifteen-minute polygon, determined by Buxton’s proprietary drive- time technology. Psychographics The psychographic profile of the households within a fifteen-minute drive-time of Atascadero is presented below. Source: Claritas, Inc, PRIZM® NE, © 2008 Dominant Segments A segment that represents at least three percent of a trade area is a dominant segment. Following is a description of the dominant segments for Atascadero. Source: Claritas, Inc, PRIZM® NE, © 2008 Atascadero, CA 4 Total Demand $944,242,328 Actual Sales $1,177,147,830 Trade Potential Variables Site Estimated Household Count 24,604 Leakage Surplus Total $232,905,502 Number of Households in Dominant Segments 19,026 Traffic Count 61,000 Primary Trade Area (continued) Leakage Analysis The following table represents an overview by store type of the leakage or surplus within the studied trade area. This is represented by an index, with 1.0 being the baseline. 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Polaris Dr. Fort Worth, Texas 76137 tel: 817.332.3681 fax:817.332.3686 e-mail:buxton@buxtonco.com http://www.buxtonco.com Shopping Centers GLA in thousands 1000+ 500 to 1000 Data Sources: Claritas, Inc., Prizm®NE, 2008 , InfoUSA, Inc., © 2008 , National Research Bureau, © 2008 , MediamarkResearch, Inc., © 2008 , Geographic Data Technology, Inc. © 2008 Atascadero, California: Secondary Trade Area Sitelllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll N Secondary Trade Area 0105 Miles Atascadero, CA 5 DescriptionDominant Segments Households % of All Households 9 BIG FISH, SMALL POND 2,252 4.24% 10 SECOND CITY ELITE 1,650 3.10% 11 GOD'S COUNTRY 1,818 3.42% 12 BRITE LITES, LI'L CITY 2,186 4.11% 13 UPWARD BOUND 2,139 4.02% 23 GREENBELT SPORTS 1,752 3.30% 24 UP-AND-COMERS 2,476 4.66% 27 MIDDLEBURG MANAGERS 3,159 5.94% 28 TRADITIONAL TIMES 2,992 5.63% 32 NEW HOMESTEADERS 1,644 3.09% 34 WHITE PICKET FENCES 1,880 3.54% 35 BOOMTOWN SINGLES 2,608 4.91% 47 CITY STARTUPS 5,427 10.21% 53 MOBILITY BLUES 3,164 5.95% Trade Area Segmentation TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL 666564636261605958575655545352515049484746454443424140393837363534333231302928272625242322212019181716151413121110987654321 27% 24% 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% Secondary Trade Area Analysis Drive-Time Trade Area The map on the opposite page depicts the secondary trade area for Atascadero. The secondary trade area consists of a twenty-five-minute custom polygon, determined by Buxton’s proprietary drive-time technology. Psychographics The psychographic profile of the households within a twenty-five-minute drive-time of Atascadero is presented below. Source: Claritas, Inc, PRIZM® NE, © 2008 Dominant Segments A segment that represents at least three percent of a trade area is a dominant segment. Following is a description of the dominant segments for Atascadero. Source: Claritas, Inc, PRIZM® NE, © 2008 Atascadero, CA 6 Total Demand $2,431,871,197 Actual Sales $2,977,672,893 Estimated Household Count 53,170 Trade Potential Variables $545,801,696 35,147 Traffic Count 61,000 Number of Households in Dominant Segments Leakage Surplus Total Site Secondary Trade Area Analysis (continued) Leakage Analysis The following table represents an overview by store type of the leakage or surplus within the studied trade area. This is represented by an index, with 1.0 being the baseline. A leakage is reflected by an index less than 1.0, and a surplus is reflected by an index greater than 1.0. Please see Appendix A for detailed demand and actual sales by category. Source: Claritas, Inc, RETAIL MARKET POWER, © 2008 The following table presents the trade potential variables for Atascadero: Source: Claritas, Inc, RETAIL MARKET POWER, PRIZM® NE, © 2008 Atascadero, CA 7 Brief Segment Descriptions 1 UPPER CRUST – The nation’s most exclusive address, Upper Crust is the wealthiest lifestyle in America—a haven for empty-nesting couples over 55 years old. No segment has a higher concentration of residents earning over $200,000 a year or possessing a postgraduate degree, and none has a more opulent standard of living. 2 BLUE BLOOD ESTATES – Blue Blood Estates is a family portrait of suburban wealth, a place of million-dollar homes and manicured lawns, high-end cars and exclusive private clubs. The nation’s second-wealthiest lifestyle, it is characterized by married couples with children, college degrees, a significant percentage of Asian Americans and six- figure incomes earned by business executives, managers and professionals. 3 MOVERS & SHAKERS – Movers & Shakers is home to America’s up-and-coming business class: a wealthy suburban world of dual-income couples who are highly educated, typically between the ages of 35 and 54, often with children. Given its high percentage of executives and white-collar professionals, there is a decided business bent to this segment: Movers & Shakers rank number one for owning a small business and having a home office. 4 YOUNG DIGERATI – Young Digerati are the nation’s tech-savvy singles and couples living in fashionable neighborhoods on the urban fringe. Affluent, highly educated and ethnically mixed, Young Digerati communities are typically filled with trendy apartments and condos, fitness clubs and clothing boutiques, casual restaurants and all types of bars—from juice to coffee to microbrew. 5 COUNTRY SQUIRES – The wealthiest residents in exurban America live in Country Squires, an oasis for affluent Baby Boomers who have fled the city for the charms of small-town living. In their bucolic communities noted for their recently built homes on sprawling properties, the families of executives live in six-figure comfort. Country Squires enjoy country club sports like golf, tennis and swimming as well as skiing, boating and biking. 6 WINNER’S CIRCLE – Among the wealthy suburban lifestyles, Winner’s Circle is the youngest, a collection of mostly 25- to 34-year-old couples with large families in new- money subdivisions. Surrounding their homes are the signs of upscale living: recreational parks, golf courses and upscale malls. With a median income of nearly $90,000, Winner’s Circle residents are big spenders who like to travel, ski, go out to eat, shop at clothing boutiques and take in a show. 7 MONEY & BRAINS – The residents of Money & Brains seem to have it all: high incomes, advanced degrees and sophisticated tastes to match their credentials. Many of these city dwellers—predominantly white with a high concentration of Asian Americans—are married couples with few children who live in fashionable homes on small, manicured lots. Atascadero, CA 8 Brief Segment Descriptions 8 EXECUTIVE SUITES – Executive Suites consists of upper-middle-class singles and couples typically living just beyond the nation’s beltways. Filled with significant numbers of Asian Americans and college graduates—both groups are represented at more than twice the national average—this segment is a haven for white-collar professionals drawn to comfortable homes and apartments within a manageable commute to downtown jobs, restaurants and entertainment. 9 BIG FISH, SMALL POND – Older, upper-class, college-educated professionals, the members of Big Fish, Small Pond are often among the leading citizens of their small- town communities. These upscale, empty-nesting couples enjoy the trappings of success, belonging to country clubs, maintaining large investment portfolios and spending freely on computer technology. 10 SECOND CITY ELITE – There’s money to be found in the nation’s smaller cities, and you’re most likely to find it in Second City Elite. The residents of these satellite cities tend to be prosperous executives who decorate their $200,000 homes with multiple computers, large-screen TV sets and an impressive collection of wines. With more than half holding college degrees, Second City Elite residents enjoy cultural activities— from reading books to attending theater and dance productions. 11 GOD’S COUNTRY – When city dwellers and suburbanites began moving to the country in the 1970’s, God’s Country emerged as the most affluent of the nation’s exurban lifestyles. Today, wealthier communities exist in the hinterlands, but God’s Country remains a haven for upper-income couples in spacious homes. Typically college-educated Baby Boomers, these Americans try to maintain a balanced lifestyle between high-power jobs and laid-back leisure. 12 BRITE LITES, LI’L CITY – Not all of the America’s chic sophisticates live in major metros. Brite Lights, Li’l City is a group of well-off, middle-aged couples settled in the nation’s satellite cities. Residents of these typical double income, no kids households have college educations, well-paying business and professional careers and swank homes filled with the latest technology. 13 UPWARD BOUND – More than any other segment, Upward Bound appears to be the home of those legendary Soccer Moms and Dads. In these small satellite cities, upper-class families boast dual incomes, college degrees and new split-levels and colonials. Residents of Upward Bound tend to be kid-obsessed, with heavy purchases of computers, action figures, dolls, board games, bicycles and camping equipment. 14 NEW EMPTY NESTS – With their grown-up children recently out of the house, New Empty Nests is composed of upscale older Americans who pursue active—and activist— lifestyles. Nearly three-quarters of residents are over 65 years old, but they show no interest in a rest-home retirement. This is the top-ranked segment for all- inclusive travel packages; the favorite destination is Italy. Atascadero, CA 9 Brief Segment Descriptions 15 POOLS & PATIOS – Formed during the postwar Baby Boom, Pools & Patios has evolved from a segment of young suburban families to one for mature, empty-nesting couples. In these stable neighborhoods graced with backyard pools and patios—the highest proportion of homes were built in the 1960’s—residents work as white-collar managers and professionals, and are now at the top of their careers. 16 BOHEMIAN MIX – A collection of young, mobile urbanites, Bohemian Mix represents the nation’s most liberal lifestyles. Its residents are a progressive mix of young singles and couples, students and professionals, Hispanics, Asians, African-Americans and whites. In their funky row houses and apartments, Bohemian Mixers are the early adopters who are quick to check out the latest movie, nightclub, laptop and microbrew. 17 BELTWAY BOOMERS – The members of the postwar Baby Boom are all grown up. Today, these Americans are in their forties and fifties, and one segment of this huge cohort—college-educated, upper-middle-class and home-owning—is found in Beltway Boomers. Like many of their peers who married late, these Boomers are still raising children in comfortable suburban subdivisions, and they’re pursuing kid-centered lifestyles. 18 KIDS & CUL-DE-SACS – Upscale, suburban, married couples with children is the description of Kids & Cul-de-Sacs, an enviable lifestyle of large families in recently built subdivisions. With a high rate of Hispanic and Asian Americans, this segment is a refuge for college-educated, white-collar professionals with administrative jobs and upper-middle-class incomes. Their nexus of education, affluence and children translates into large outlays for child-centered products and services. 19 HOME SWEET HOME – Widely scattered across the nation’s suburbs, the residents of Home Sweet Home tend to be upper-middle-class married couples living in mid- sized homes with few children. The adults in the segment, mostly between the ages of 25 and 54, have gone to college and hold professional and white-collar jobs. With their upscale incomes and small families, these folks have fashioned comfortable lifestyles, filling their homes with toys, TV sets and pets. 20 FAST-TRACK FAMILIES – With their upper-middle-class incomes, numerous children and spacious homes, Fast-Track Families are in their prime acquisition years. These middle-aged parents have the disposable income and educated sensibility to want the best for their children. They buy the latest technology with impunity: new computers, DVD players, home theater systems and video games. They take advantage of their rustic locales by camping, boating and fishing. Atascadero, CA 10 Brief Segment Descriptions 21 GRAY POWER – The steady rise of older, healthier Americans over the past decade has produced one important by-product: middle-class, home-owning suburbanites who are aging in place rather than moving to retirement communities. A segment of older, mid-scale singles and couples who live in quiet comfort, Gray Power reflects this trend. 22 YOUNG INFLUENTIALS – Once known as the home of the nation’s yuppies, Young Influentials reflects the fading glow of acquisitive yuppiedom. Today, the segment is a common address for young, middle-class singles and couples who are more preoccupied with balancing work and leisure pursuits. Having recently left college dorms, they now live in apartment complexes surrounded by ball fields, health clubs and casual-dining restaurants. 23 GREENBELT SPORTS – A segment of middle-class exurban couples, Greenbelt Sports is known for its active lifestyle. Most of these middle-aged residents are married, college-educated and own new homes; about a third have children. And few segments have higher rates for pursuing outdoor activities such as skiing, canoeing, backpacking, boating and mountain biking. 24 UP-AND-COMERS – Up-and-Comers is a stopover for young, mid-scale singles before they marry, have families and establish more deskbound lifestyles. Found in second-tier cities, these mobile twenty-somethings include a disproportionate number of recent college graduates who are into athletic activities, the latest technology and nightlife entertainment. 25 COUNTRY CASUALS – There’s a laid-back atmosphere in Country Casuals, a collection of middle-aged, upper-middle-class households that have started to empty- nest. Workers here—and most households boast two earners—have well-paying blue- or white-collar jobs, or own small businesses. Today these Baby-Boom couples have the disposable income to enjoy traveling, owning timeshares and going out to eat. 26 THE COSMOPOLITANS – Educated, mid-scale and multi-ethnic, The Cosmopolitans are urbane couples in America’s fast-growing cities. Concentrated in a handful of metros—such as Las Vegas, Miami and Albuquerque—these households feature older home-owners, empty-nesters and college graduates. A vibrant social scene surrounds their older homes and apartments, and residents love the nightlife and enjoy leisure- intensive lifestyles. 27 MIDDLEBURG MANAGERS – Middleburg Managers arose when empty-nesters settled in satellite communities which offered a lower cost of living and more relaxed pace. Today segment residents tend to be middle-class and over 55 years old with solid managerial jobs and comfortable retirements. In their older homes, they enjoy reading, playing musical instruments, indoor gardening and refinishing furniture. Atascadero, CA 11 Brief Segment Descriptions 28 TRADITIONAL TIMES – Traditional Times is the kind of lifestyle where small-town couples nearing retirement are beginning to enjoy their first empty-nest years. Typically in their fifties and sixties, these middle-class Americans pursue a kind of granola-and-grits lifestyle. On their coffee tables are magazines with titles ranging from Country Living and Country Home to Gourmet and Forbes. But they’re big travelers, especially in recreational vehicles and campers. 29 AMERICAN DREAMS – American Dreams is a living example of how ethnically diverse the nation has become: more than half the residents are Hispanic, Asian or African-American. In these multilingual neighborhoods—one in ten residents speaks a language other than English—middle-aged immigrants and their children live in middle- class comfort. 30 SUBURBAN SPRAWL – Suburban Sprawl is an unusual American lifestyle: a collection of mid-scale, middle-aged singles and couples living in the heart of suburbia. Typically members of the Baby Boom generation, they hold decent jobs, own older homes and condos, and pursue conservative versions of the American Dream. Among their favorite activities are jogging on treadmills, playing trivia games and renting videos. 31 URBAN ACHIEVERS – Concentrated in the nation’s port cities, Urban Achievers is often the first stop for up-and-coming immigrants from Asia, South America and Europe. These young singles and couples are typically college-educated and ethnically diverse: about a third are foreign-born, and even more speak a language other than English. 32 NEW HOMESTEADERS – Young, middle-class families seeking to escape suburban sprawl find refuge in New Homesteaders, a collection of small rustic townships filled with new ranches and Cape Cods. With decent-paying jobs in white-collar and service industries, these dual-income couples have fashioned comfortable, child-centered lifestyles, their driveways filled with campers and powerboats, their family rooms with PlayStations and Game Boys. 33 BIG SKY FAMILIES – Scattered in placid towns across the American heartland, Big Sky Families is a segment of young rural families who have turned high school educations and blue-collar jobs into busy, middle-class lifestyles. Residents like to play baseball, basketball and volleyball in addition to going fishing, hunting and horseback riding. To entertain their sprawling families, they buy virtually every piece of sporting equipment on the market. 34 WHITE PICKET FENCES – Midpoint on the socioeconomic ladder, residents in White Picket Fences look a lot like the stereotypical American household of a generation ago: young, middle-class, married with children. But the current version is characterized by modest homes and ethnic diversity—including a disproportionate number of Hispanics and African-Americans. Atascadero, CA 12 Brief Segment Descriptions 35 BOOMTOWN SINGLES – Affordable housing, abundant entry-level jobs and a thriving singles scene— all have given rise to the Boomtown Singles segment in fast-growing satellite cities. Young, single and working-class, these residents pursue active lifestyles amid sprawling apartment complexes, bars, convenience stores and laundromats. 36 BLUE-CHIP BLUES – Blue-Chip Blues is known as a comfortable lifestyle for young, sprawling families with well-paying blue-collar jobs. Ethnically diverse—with a significant presence of Hispanics and African-Americans—the segment’s aging neighborhoods feature compact, modestly priced homes surrounded by commercial centers that cater to child-filled households. 37 MAYBERRY-VILLE – Like the old Andy Griffith Show set in a quaint picturesque berg, Mayberry-ville harks back to an old-fashioned way of life. In these small towns, middle-class couples and families like to fish and hunt during the day, and stay home and watch TV at night. With lucrative blue-collar jobs and moderately priced housing, residents use their discretionary cash to purchase boats, campers, motorcycles and pickup trucks. 38 SIMPLE PLEASURES – With more than two-thirds of its residents over 65 years old, Simple Pleasures is mostly a retirement lifestyle: a neighborhood of lower-middle-class singles and couples living in modestly priced homes. Many are high school-educated seniors who held blue-collar jobs before their retirement, and a disproportionate number served in the military; no segment has more members of veterans clubs. 39 DOMESTIC DUOS – Domestic Duos represents a middle-class mix of mainly over-55 singles and married couples living in older suburban homes. With their high-school educations and fixed incomes, segment residents maintain an easy-going lifestyle. Residents like to socialize by going bowling, seeing a play, meeting at the local fraternal order or going out to eat. 40 CLOSE-IN COUPLES – Close-In Couples is a group of predominantly African- American couples living in older homes in the urban neighborhoods of mid-sized metros. High school educated and empty nesting, these 55-year-old-plus residents typically live in older city neighborhoods, enjoying secure and comfortable retirements. 41 SUNSET CITY BLUES – Scattered throughout the older neighborhoods of small cities, Sunset City Blues is a segment of lower-middle-class singles and couples who have retired or are getting close to retirement. These empty-nesters tend to own their homes but have modest educations and incomes. They maintain a low-key lifestyle filled with newspapers and television by day, and family-style restaurants at night. Atascadero, CA 13 Brief Segment Descriptions 42 RED, WHITE & BLUES – The residents of Red, White & Blues typically live in exurban towns rapidly morphing into bedroom suburbs. Their streets feature new fast-food restaurants, and locals have recently celebrated the arrival of chains like Wal-Mart, Radio Shack and Payless Shoes. Middle-aged, high school educated and lower-middle class, these folks tend to have solid, blue-collar jobs in manufacturing, milling and construction. 43 HEARTLANDERS – America was once a land of small middle-class towns, which can still be found today among Heartlanders. This widespread segment consists of middle- aged couples with working-class jobs living in sturdy, unpretentious homes. In these communities of small families and empty-nesting couples, Heartlanders pursue a rustic lifestyle where hunting and fishing remain prime leisure activities along with cooking, sewing, camping and boating. 44 NEW BEGINNINGS – Filled with young, single adults, New Beginnings is a magnet for adults in transition. Many of its residents are twenty-something singles and couples just starting out on their career paths—or starting over after recent divorces or company transfers. Ethnically diverse—with nearly half its residents Hispanic, Asian or African-American—New Beginnings households tend to have the modest living standards typical of transient apartment dwellers. 45 BLUE HIGHWAYS – On maps, blue highways are often two-lane roads that wind through remote stretches of the American landscape. Among lifestyles, Blue Highways is the standout for lower-middle-class couples and families who live in isolated towns and farmsteads. Here, Boomer men like to hunt and fish; the women enjoy sewing and crafts, and everyone looks forward to going out to a country music concert. 46 OLD GLORIES – Old Glories are the nation’s downscale suburban retirees, Americans aging in place in older apartment complexes. These racially mixed households often contain widows and widowers living on fixed incomes, and they tend to lead home-centered lifestyles. They’re among the nation’s most ardent television fans, watching game shows, soaps, talk shows and newsmagazines at high rates. 47 CITY STARTUPS – In City Startups, young, multi-ethnic singles have settled in neighborhoods filled with cheap apartments and a commercial base of cafés, bars, laundromats and clubs that cater to twenty-somethings. One of the youngest segments in America—with ten times as many college students as the national average—these neighborhoods feature low incomes and high concentrations of Hispanics and African-Americans. Atascadero, CA 14 Brief Segment Descriptions 48 YOUNG & RUSTIC – Like the soap opera that inspired its nickname, Young & Rustic is composed of young, restless singles. Unlike the glitzy soap denizens, however, these folks tend to be lower income, high school-educated and live in tiny apartments in the nation’s exurban towns. With their service industry jobs and modest incomes, these folks still try to fashion fast-paced lifestyles centered on sports, cars and dating. 49 AMERICAN CLASSICS – They may be older, lower-middle class and retired, but the residents of American Classics are still living the American Dream of home ownership. Few segments rank higher in their percentage of home owners, and that fact alone reflects a more comfortable lifestyle for these predominantly white singles and couples with deep ties to their neighborhoods. 50 KID COUNTRY, USA – Widely scattered throughout the nation’s heartland, Kid Country, USA is a segment dominated by large families living in small towns. Predominantly white with an above-average concentration of Hispanics, these young working-class households include homeowners, renters and military personnel living in base housing; about 20 percent of residents own mobile homes. 51 SHOTGUNS & PICKUPS – The segment known as Shotguns & Pickups came by its moniker honestly: it scores near the top of all lifestyles for owning hunting rifles and pickup trucks. These Americans tend to be young, working-class couples with large families—more than half have two or more kids—living in small homes and manufactured housing. Nearly a third of residents live in mobile homes, more than any other segment. 52 SUBURBAN PIONEERS – Suburban Pioneers represents one of the nation’s eclectic lifestyles, a mix of young singles, recently divorced and single parents who have moved into older, inner-ring suburbs. They live in aging homes and garden-style apartment buildings where the jobs are blue-collar and the money is tight. What unites these residents—a diverse mix of whites, Hispanics and African-Americans—is a working- class sensibility and an appreciation for their off-the-beaten-track neighborhoods. 53 MOBILITY BLUES – Young singles and single parents make their way to Mobility Blues, a segment of working-class neighborhoods in America’s satellite cities. Racially mixed and under 25 years old, these transient Americans tend to have modest lifestyles due to their lower-income blue-collar jobs. Surveys show they excel in going to movies, playing basketball and shooting pool. 54 MULTI-CULTI MOSAIC – An immigrant gateway community, Multi-Culti Mosaic is the urban home for a mixed populace of younger Hispanic, Asian and African-American singles and families. With nearly a quarter of the residents foreign born, this segment is a Mecca for first-generation Americans who are striving to improve their lower- middle-class status. Atascadero, CA 15 Brief Segment Descriptions 55 GOLDEN PONDS – Golden Ponds is mostly a retirement lifestyle, dominated by downscale singles and couples over 65 years old. Found in small bucolic towns around the country, these high school-educated seniors live in small apartments on less than $25,000 a year; one in five resides in a nursing home. For these elderly residents, daily life is often a succession of sedentary activities such as reading, watching TV, playing bingo and doing craft projects. 56 CROSSROADS VILLAGERS – With a population of middle-aged, blue-collar couples and families, Crossroads Villagers is a classic rural lifestyle. Residents are high school- educated with lower-middle incomes and modest housing; one-quarter live in mobile homes. There’s an air of self-reliance in these households as Crossroads Villagers help put food on the table through fishing, gardening and hunting. 57 OLD MILLTOWNS – America’s once-thriving mining and manufacturing towns have aged—as have the residents in Old Milltowns communities. Today, the majority of residents are retired singles and couples living on downscale incomes in pre-1960 homes and apartments. For leisure they enjoy gardening, sewing, socializing at veterans clubs or eating out at casual restaurants. 58 BACK COUNTRY FOLKS – Strewn among remote farm communities across the nation, Back Country Folks are a long way away from economic paradise. The residents tend to be poor, over 55 years old and living in older, modest-sized homes and manufactured housing. Typically, life in this segment is a throwback to an earlier era when farming dominated the American landscape. 59 URBAN ELDERS – For Urban Elders—a segment located in the downtown neighborhoods of such metros as New York, Chicago, Las Vegas and Miami—life is often an economic struggle. These communities have high concentrations of Hispanics and African-Americans and tend to be downscale, with singles living in older apartment rentals. 60 PARK BENCH SENIORS – Park Bench Seniors are typically retired singles living in the racially mixed neighborhoods of the nation’s satellite cities. With modest educations and incomes, these residents maintain low-key, sedentary lifestyles. Theirs is one of the top-ranked segments for TV viewing, especially daytime soaps and game shows. 61 CITY ROOTS – Found in urban neighborhoods, City Roots is a segment of lower- income retirees, typically living in older homes and duplexes they’ve owned for years. In these ethnically diverse neighborhoods—more than a third are African-American and Hispanic—residents are often widows and widowers living on fixed incomes and maintaining low-key lifestyles. Atascadero, CA 16 Brief Segment Descriptions 62 HOMETOWN RETIRED – With three-quarters of all residents over 65 years old, Hometown Retired is one of the oldest segments. These racially mixed seniors tend to live in aging homes—half were built before 1958—and typically get by on social security and modest pensions. Because most never made it beyond high school and spent their working lives at blue-collar jobs, their retirements are extremely modest. 63 FAMILY THRIFTS – The small-city cousins of inner-city districts, Family Thrifts contain young, ethnically diverse parents who have lots of children and work entry-level service jobs. In these apartment-filled neighborhoods, visitors find the streets jam- packed with babies and toddlers, tricycles and basketball hoops, Daewoos and Hyundais. 64 BEDROCK AMERICA – Bedrock America consists of young, economically challenged families in small, isolated towns located throughout the nation’s heartland. With modest educations, sprawling families and blue-collar jobs, many of these residents struggle to make ends meet. One quarter live in mobile homes. One in three has not finished high school. Rich in scenery, Bedrock America is a haven for fishing, hunting, hiking and camping. 65 BIG CITY BLUES – With a population that’s half Latino, Big City Blues has the highest concentration of Hispanic Americans in the nation, but it’s also the multi-ethnic address for downscale Asian and African-American households occupying older inner- city apartments. Concentrated in a handful of major metros, these young singles and single-parent families face enormous challenges: low incomes, uncertain jobs and modest educations. More than 40% haven’t finished high school. 66 LOW-RISE LIVING – The most economically challenged urban segment, Low-Rise Living is known as a transient world for young, ethnically diverse singles and single parents. Home values are low—about half the national average—and even then, less than a quarter of residents can afford to own real estate. Buxton utilizes the Claritas® PRIZM®NE segmentation system in this analysis. PRIZM®NE and Claritas® are registered trademarks of Claritas Inc. The PRIZM segment nicknames (e.g., “Blue Blood Estates,” Big Sky Families,” “Country Squires”) are trademarks of Claritas Inc. Appendix A: Leakage Analysis Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis The Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis examines the quantitative aspect of the community's retail opportunities. It is a guide to understanding retail opportunities but it is not an analysis that indicates unconditional opportunities. The analysis is sometimes called "a gap analysis" or "a supply and demand analysis" and can aid in the following: ·Indicating how well the retail needs of local residents are being met ·Uncovering unmet demand and possible opportunities ·Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of the local retail sector ·Measuring the difference between actual and potential retail sales Understanding Retail Leakage Retail leakage means that residents are spending more for products than local businesses capture. Retail sales leakage suggests that there is unmet demand in the trade area and that the community can support additional store space for that type of business. However, retail leakage does not necessarily translate into opportunity. For example, there could be a strong competitor in a neighboring community that dominates the market for that type of product or store. Understanding Retail Surplus A retail surplus means that the community's trade area is capturing the local market plus attracting non-local shoppers. A retail surplus does not necessarily mean that the community cannot support additional business. Many communities have developed strong clusters of stores that have broad geographic appeal. Examples of these types of retailers include: sporting goods stores, home furnishing stores, restaurants, and other specialty operations that become destination retailers and draw customers from outside the trade area. Examining the quantitative aspects (Leakage/Surplus) is only part of the evaluation of community's retail opportunities. Before any conclusions can be drawn about potential business expansion or recruitment opportunities, qualitative considerations such as trade area psychographics and buying habits must be analyzed in context of other market factors. Site Address Analysis Geography Site1 TRAFFIC WAY and EL CAMINO REAL Atascadero, CA 93422 15 minute drive time Leakage/Surplus Index by Product The Leakage/Surplus Index provides a relative comparison of the supply and demand across retail product categories. It is calculated by dividing actual sales by potential sales. An index greater than 1.0 means that the community is attracting retail sales (surplus) from outside the trade area. If the index is less than 1.0 it means that out-shopping is taking place and the community is not successfully drawing its own residents. Leakage/Surplus Index (Figure 1) shows the strengths and weaknesses of a community's retail market by product. Figure 1. Leakage/Surplus Index by Product Site Address Analysis Geography Site1 TRAFFIC WAY and EL CAMINO REAL Atascadero, CA 93422 15 minute drive time The sales potential and the actual sales potential by product category and the resulting index are shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. Sales Potential and Actual Sales by Product Product Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Groceries and Other Foods 133,930,067 129,167,182 1.0 Meals and Snacks 92,823,317 118,688,033 1.3 Alcoholic Drinks 10,294,286 14,352,178 1.4 Packaged Liquor/Wine/Beer 15,856,092 27,994,782 1.8 Cigars, Cigarettes, and Tobacco & Smokers Accessories 13,507,105 26,931,494 2.0 Drugs, Health Aids, and Beauty Aids 54,929,764 69,003,958 1.3 Soaps, Detergents, and Household Cleaners 5,502,322 6,068,796 1.1 Paper and Related Products 6,641,459 5,041,803 0.8 Mens Wear 17,910,259 14,467,821 0.8 Womens, Juniors, and Misses Wear 33,339,130 28,138,723 0.8 Childrens Wear 8,374,836 7,356,174 0.9 Footwear 13,619,417 11,355,491 0.8 Sewing, Knitting, and Needlework Goods 1,834,077 1,463,275 0.8 Curtains, Draperies, Blinds, Slipcovers etc.6,170,607 7,446,485 1.2 Major Household Appliances 7,323,594 13,685,336 1.9 Small Electric Appliances 3,050,226 2,869,060 0.9 Televisions, Video Recorders, Video Cameras 7,161,717 8,349,829 1.2 Audio Equipment, Musical Instruments, and Supplies 11,242,141 10,698,476 1.0 Furniture and Sleep Equipment 16,703,515 17,842,383 1.1 Flooring & Floor Coverings 7,627,579 12,018,350 1.6 Computer Hardware, Software and Supplies 21,082,593 21,986,710 1.0 Kitchenware and Home furnishings 12,701,086 13,952,479 1.1 Jewelry 11,163,381 6,714,432 0.6 Books 6,231,606 4,172,226 0.7 Photographic Equipment & Supplies 2,280,267 1,262,593 0.6 Toys, Hobby Goods, and Games 7,444,879 5,533,322 0.7 Optical Goods 2,142,545 848,207 0.4 Sporting Goods 11,579,186 19,205,982 1.7 Hardware Tools, and Plumbing and Electrical Supplies 58,104,798 105,129,904 1.8 Lumber and Building Materials 46,343,218 79,616,683 1.7 Paint and Sundries 7,220,386 13,492,823 1.9 Cars, Trucks, and Other Powered Transportation 144,551,023 143,787,436 1.0 Automotive Fuels 77,457,417 152,730,914 2.0 Automotive Lubricants 31,487,053 39,888,886 1.3 Pets, Pet Foods, and Pet Supplies 4,325,932 4,003,314 0.9 All Other Merchandise 32,285,404 31,882,271 1.0 Site Address Analysis Geography Site1 TRAFFIC WAY and EL CAMINO REAL Atascadero, CA 93422 15 minute drive time Leakage/Surplus Index by Major Store Type The quantitative comparison of retail leakage and surplus in the twelve major store types shown in the chart and table below provides an initial measure of market opportunities. Combining this analysis with the knowledge of the local retail situation will take the process of identifying retail possibilities one step further. Figure 3 provides the leakage/surplus indices and following is the sales potential and actual sales for major store types. Figure 3. Leakage/Surplus Index and Actual and Potential Sales by Major Store Types Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers 181,396,308 182,677,787 1.01 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores 25,483,065 32,383,139 1.27 Electronics & Appliances Stores 23,172,161 29,471,736 1.27 Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supply Dealers 104,278,575 196,202,666 1.88 Food & Beverage Stores 113,224,489 124,337,706 1.10 Health & Personal Care Stores 42,608,982 54,146,167 1.27 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores 43,758,675 19,062,594 0.44 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores 18,108,305 21,096,949 1.17 General Merchandise Stores 112,511,488 79,410,835 0.71 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 25,502,963 26,573,999 1.04 Foodservice & Drinking Places 95,548,158 123,555,125 1.29 GAFO 233,341,655 194,310,048 0.83 Total Retail Sales (Including Food Service & Drinking Places)944,242,328 1,177,147,830 1.25 * GAFO refers to discount retailers that typically include the following departments: general merchandise; clothing and clothing accessories; furniture and home furnishings; electronics and appliances; sporting goods, hobby, books and music; and office supplies. Site Address Analysis Geography Site1 TRAFFIC WAY and EL CAMINO REAL Atascadero, CA 93422 15 minute drive time Leakage/Surplus Analysis by Sub-Categories of Major Retail Types Additional leakage/surplus details are provided on subcategories of stores in each of the twelve major store types. These details can help further identity possible business expansion opportunities. Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Automotive Dealers 156,437,544 154,383,111 0.99 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers 10,254,323 12,624,197 1.23 Automotive Parts, Accessories, & Tire Stores 14,704,440 15,670,478 1.07 Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers 181,396,308 182,677,787 1.01 Site Address Analysis Geography Site1 TRAFFIC WAY and EL CAMINO REAL Atascadero, CA 93422 15 minute drive time Electronics and Appliance Stores Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Household Appliances Stores 3,859,345 10,314,353 2.67 Radio Television and Other Electronics Stores 14,083,845 14,767,442 1.05 Appliance, Television, and Other Electronics Stores 17,943,191 25,081,795 1.40 Computer and Software Stores 4,347,168 4,389,940 1.01 Camera & Photographic Equipment Stores 881,801 0 0.00 Electronics & Appliances Stores 23,172,161 29,471,736 1.27 Site Address Analysis Geography Site1 TRAFFIC WAY and EL CAMINO REAL Atascadero, CA 93422 15 minute drive time Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Furniture Stores 13,611,358 13,353,162 0.98 Home Furnishing Stores 11,871,706 19,029,976 1.60 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores 25,483,065 32,383,139 1.27 Site Address Analysis Geography Site1 TRAFFIC WAY and EL CAMINO REAL Atascadero, CA 93422 15 minute drive time Building Material, Garden Equipment and Supply Dealers Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Home Centers 36,171,567 58,590,416 1.62 Paint and Wallpaper Stores 2,453,494 2,692,321 1.10 Hardware Stores 7,656,252 36,223,277 4.73 Building Materials, Lumberyards 16,699,407 28,496,411 1.71 Other Building Materials Dealers 48,785,751 83,564,465 1.71 Building Material & Supply Dealers 95,067,065 181,070,480 1.90 Outdoor Power Equipment Stores 1,424,242 923,026 0.65 Nursery and Garden Centers 7,787,266 14,209,159 1.82 Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores 9,211,509 15,132,185 1.64 Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supply Dealers 104,278,575 196,202,666 1.88 Site Address Analysis Geography Site1 TRAFFIC WAY and EL CAMINO REAL Atascadero, CA 93422 15 minute drive time Food and Beverage Stores Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores 97,622,408 104,402,528 1.07 Convenience Stores 5,005,877 3,738,642 0.75 Grocery Stores 102,628,285 108,141,171 1.05 Specialty Food Stores 3,518,539 1,171,132 0.33 Beer, Wine, & Liquor Stores 7,077,664 15,025,402 2.12 Food & Beverage Stores 113,224,489 124,337,706 1.10 Site Address Analysis Geography Site1 TRAFFIC WAY and EL CAMINO REAL Atascadero, CA 93422 15 minute drive time Health and Personal Care Stores Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Pharmacies and Drug Stores 36,561,450 49,512,001 1.35 Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies and Perfume Stores 1,499,707 367,409 0.25 Optical Goods Stores 1,810,409 482,579 0.27 Other Health and Personal Care Stores 2,737,414 3,784,177 1.38 Health & Personal Care Stores 42,608,982 54,146,167 1.27 Site Address Analysis Geography Site1 TRAFFIC WAY and EL CAMINO REAL Atascadero, CA 93422 15 minute drive time Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Mens Clothing Stores 1,948,757 263,777 0.14 Womens Clothing Stores 7,980,845 5,504,879 0.69 Childrens and Infants Clothing Stores 1,715,185 425,963 0.25 Family Clothing Stores 16,523,185 3,113,159 0.19 Clothing Accessories Stores 747,217 245,681 0.33 Other Clothing Stores 2,076,788 1,544,424 0.74 Clothing Stores 30,991,980 11,097,885 0.36 Shoe Stores 6,122,422 5,654,815 0.92 Jewelry Stores 6,133,078 2,309,893 0.38 Luggage, & Leather Goods Stores 511,194 0 0.00 Jewelry, Luggage, & Leather Goods Stores 6,644,272 2,309,893 0.35 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores 43,758,675 19,062,594 0.44 Site Address Analysis Geography Site1 TRAFFIC WAY and EL CAMINO REAL Atascadero, CA 93422 15 minute drive time Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Sporting Goods Stores 5,934,400 14,452,761 2.44 Hobby, Toys and Games Stores 3,834,382 1,059,025 0.28 Sew/Needlework/Piece Goods Stores 1,111,008 999,700 0.90 Musical Instrument and Supplies Stores 1,286,828 596,113 0.46 Sporting Goods, Hobby, & Musical Instrument Stores 12,166,619 17,107,601 1.41 Book Stores 3,683,676 2,113,191 0.57 News Dealers and Newsstands 207,785 61,512 0.30 Book Stores and News Dealers 3,891,461 2,174,704 0.56 Prerecorded Tape, Compact Disc, and Record Stores 2,050,223 1,814,644 0.89 Book, Periodical, & Music Stores 5,941,685 3,989,348 0.67 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores 18,108,305 21,096,949 1.17 Site Address Analysis Geography Site1 TRAFFIC WAY and EL CAMINO REAL Atascadero, CA 93422 15 minute drive time General Merchandise Stores Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Department Stores excluding leased depts.52,022,679 78,017,730 1.50 Warehouse Clubs and Super Stores 51,954,533 0 0.00 All Other General Merchandise Stores 8,534,275 1,393,105 0.16 Other General Merchandise Stores 60,488,808 1,393,105 0.02 General Merchandise Stores 112,511,488 79,410,835 0.71 Site Address Analysis Geography Site1 TRAFFIC WAY and EL CAMINO REAL Atascadero, CA 93422 15 minute drive time Miscellaneous Store Retailers Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Florists 1,852,020 2,137,519 1.15 Office Supplies and Stationery Stores 5,812,326 5,901,506 1.02 Gift, Novelty, and Souvenir Stores 4,495,631 6,983,287 1.55 Office Supplies, Stationery, & Gift Stores 10,307,958 12,884,793 1.25 Used Merchandise Stores 2,177,500 2,555,436 1.17 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers 11,165,483 8,996,249 0.81 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 25,502,963 26,573,999 1.04 Site Address Analysis Geography Site1 TRAFFIC WAY and EL CAMINO REAL Atascadero, CA 93422 15 minute drive time Foodservice and Drinking Places Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Full-service Restaurants 43,383,328 77,781,759 1.79 Limited-service Eating Places 40,356,796 38,947,225 0.97 Special Foodservices 7,735,681 3,633,975 0.47 Drinking Places -Alcoholic Beverages 4,072,350 3,192,164 0.78 Foodservice & Drinking Places 95,548,158 123,555,125 1.29 Site Address Analysis Geography Site1 TRAFFIC WAY and EL CAMINO REAL Atascadero, CA 93422 15 minute drive time Sources and Methodology Household demand estimates are derived by combining data from the Consumer Expenditures Survey by the Bureau of Labor Statistics with current household demographic estimates from Claritas. The demand estimates only account for household expenditures. Demand is defined as the estimated dollar amount spent by a household that resides in the area of analysis for a specified retail store type or merchandise line item. Supply estimates are generated from the Census of Retail Trade, a component of the Economic Census. County-level sales tax data is allocated to low levels of geography using business sales estimates, business locations, and employee counts provided by Claritas' Business Facts® database. Supply includes all products sold at retail outlets in a specified area for a one-year period. Supply is defined as the estimated total retail sales for a retail store type or merchandise line item. Source: Retail Market Power (Claritas). Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis The Retail Leakage and Surplus Analysis examines the quantitative aspect of the community's retail opportunities. It is a guide to understanding retail opportunities but it is not an analysis that indicates unconditional opportunities. The analysis is sometimes called "a gap analysis" or "a supply and demand analysis" and can aid in the following: ·Indicating how well the retail needs of local residents are being met ·Uncovering unmet demand and possible opportunities ·Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of the local retail sector ·Measuring the difference between actual and potential retail sales Understanding Retail Leakage Retail leakage means that residents are spending more for products than local businesses capture. Retail sales leakage suggests that there is unmet demand in the trade area and that the community can support additional store space for that type of business. However, retail leakage does not necessarily translate into opportunity. For example, there could be a strong competitor in a neighboring community that dominates the market for that type of product or store. Understanding Retail Surplus A retail surplus means that the community's trade area is capturing the local market plus attracting non-local shoppers. A retail surplus does not necessarily mean that the community cannot support additional business. Many communities have developed strong clusters of stores that have broad geographic appeal. Examples of these types of retailers include: sporting goods stores, home furnishing stores, restaurants, and other specialty operations that become destination retailers and draw customers from outside the trade area. Examining the quantitative aspects (Leakage/Surplus) is only part of the evaluation of community's retail opportunities. Before any conclusions can be drawn about potential business expansion or recruitment opportunities, qualitative considerations such as trade area psychographics and buying habits must be analyzed in context of other market factors. Site Address Analysis Geography Site 1 TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA 93422 Secondary Trade Area Leakage/Surplus Index by Product The Leakage/Surplus Index provides a relative comparison of the supply and demand across retail product categories. It is calculated by dividing actual sales by potential sales. An index greater than 1.0 means that the community is attracting retail sales (surplus) from outside the trade area. If the index is less than 1.0 it means that out-shopping is taking place and the community is not successfully drawing its own residents. Leakage/Surplus Index (Figure 1) shows the strengths and weaknesses of a community's retail market by product. Figure 1. Leakage/Surplus Index by Product Site Address Analysis Geography Site 1 TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA 93422 Secondary Trade Area The sales potential and the actual sales potential by product category and the resulting index are shown in Figure 2. Figure 2. Sales Potential and Actual Sales by Product Product Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Groceries and Other Foods 341,465,496 346,724,305 1.0 Meals and Snacks 247,127,329 321,964,907 1.3 Alcoholic Drinks 28,447,480 32,871,700 1.2 Packaged Liquor/Wine/Beer 42,773,636 58,983,335 1.4 Cigars, Cigarettes, and Tobacco & Smokers Accessories 32,911,173 55,732,906 1.7 Drugs, Health Aids, and Beauty Aids 142,270,844 152,332,306 1.1 Soaps, Detergents, and Household Cleaners 13,367,456 15,507,094 1.2 Paper and Related Products 16,592,242 14,736,635 0.9 Mens Wear 47,599,856 43,631,923 0.9 Womens, Juniors, and Misses Wear 87,848,502 80,210,454 0.9 Childrens Wear 18,555,355 19,721,780 1.1 Footwear 34,611,808 37,263,681 1.1 Sewing, Knitting, and Needlework Goods 4,646,882 4,982,713 1.1 Curtains, Draperies, Blinds, Slipcovers etc.15,739,966 18,119,811 1.2 Major Household Appliances 18,261,124 31,139,104 1.7 Small Electric Appliances 7,966,645 6,983,398 0.9 Televisions, Video Recorders, Video Cameras 19,093,991 23,587,637 1.2 Audio Equipment, Musical Instruments, and Supplies 30,465,812 34,579,121 1.1 Furniture and Sleep Equipment 41,679,500 50,405,939 1.2 Flooring & Floor Coverings 18,254,352 33,494,598 1.8 Computer Hardware, Software and Supplies 55,358,709 61,849,772 1.1 Kitchenware and Home furnishings 31,862,865 37,890,240 1.2 Jewelry 28,463,093 22,367,064 0.8 Books 21,560,269 17,962,930 0.8 Photographic Equipment & Supplies 5,613,290 4,817,616 0.9 Toys, Hobby Goods, and Games 17,232,977 17,091,036 1.0 Optical Goods 5,221,402 2,721,871 0.5 Sporting Goods 28,682,377 60,356,597 2.1 Hardware Tools, and Plumbing and Electrical Supplies 141,340,051 229,662,489 1.6 Lumber and Building Materials 110,292,947 199,445,847 1.8 Paint and Sundries 17,636,368 26,123,555 1.5 Cars, Trucks, and Other Powered Transportation 378,398,253 434,354,045 1.1 Automotive Fuels 203,962,081 286,127,766 1.4 Automotive Lubricants 82,043,013 96,888,537 1.2 Pets, Pet Foods, and Pet Supplies 10,789,913 10,858,219 1.0 All Other Merchandise 83,734,061 86,181,919 1.0 Site Address Analysis Geography Site 1 TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA 93422 Secondary Trade Area Leakage/Surplus Index by Major Store Type The quantitative comparison of retail leakage and surplus in the twelve major store types shown in the chart and table below provides an initial measure of market opportunities. Combining this analysis with the knowledge of the local retail situation will take the process of identifying retail possibilities one step further. Figure 3 provides the leakage/surplus indices and following is the sales potential and actual sales for major store types. Figure 3. Leakage/Surplus Index and Actual and Potential Sales by Major Store Types Store Type Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers 474,112,339 533,960,330 1.13 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores 63,268,036 96,692,070 1.53 Electronics & Appliances Stores 60,347,535 94,561,174 1.57 Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supply Dealers 252,067,900 442,373,439 1.76 Food & Beverage Stores 289,608,687 308,039,981 1.06 Health & Personal Care Stores 109,806,485 111,423,127 1.01 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores 112,643,204 94,822,272 0.84 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores 48,740,911 85,247,826 1.75 General Merchandise Stores 287,214,125 245,888,155 0.86 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 65,484,013 72,308,732 1.10 Foodservice & Drinking Places 255,095,338 332,565,433 1.30 GAFO 598,778,860 654,571,470 1.09 Total Retail Sales (Including Food Service & Drinking Places)2,431,871,197 2,977,672,893 1.22 * GAFO refers to discount retailers that typically include the following departments: general merchandise; clothing and clothing accessories; furniture and home furnishings; electronics and appliances; sporting goods, hobby, books and music; and office supplies. Site Address Analysis Geography Site 1 TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA 93422 Secondary Trade Area Leakage/Surplus Analysis by Sub-Categories of Major Retail Types Additional leakage/surplus details are provided on subcategories of stores in each of the twelve major store types. These details can help further identity possible business expansion opportunities. Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Automotive Dealers 409,115,243 459,742,330 1.12 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers 26,253,092 33,680,449 1.28 Automotive Parts, Accessories, & Tire Stores 38,744,003 40,537,550 1.05 Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers 474,112,339 533,960,330 1.13 Site Address Analysis Geography Site 1 TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA 93422 Secondary Trade Area Electronics and Appliance Stores Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Household Appliances Stores 9,770,209 22,723,153 2.33 Radio Television and Other Electronics Stores 36,973,324 55,906,008 1.51 Appliance, Television, and Other Electronics Stores 46,743,534 78,629,162 1.68 Computer and Software Stores 11,402,690 14,434,536 1.27 Camera & Photographic Equipment Stores 2,201,310 1,497,475 0.68 Electronics & Appliances Stores 60,347,535 94,561,174 1.57 Site Address Analysis Geography Site 1 TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA 93422 Secondary Trade Area Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Furniture Stores 33,988,081 41,390,191 1.22 Home Furnishing Stores 29,279,954 55,301,878 1.89 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores 63,268,036 96,692,070 1.53 Site Address Analysis Geography Site 1 TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA 93422 Secondary Trade Area Building Material, Garden Equipment and Supply Dealers Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Home Centers 87,967,737 121,751,333 1.38 Paint and Wallpaper Stores 6,031,057 4,918,942 0.82 Hardware Stores 18,870,979 59,829,273 3.17 Building Materials, Lumberyards 39,987,823 77,039,084 1.93 Other Building Materials Dealers 116,486,793 225,913,690 1.94 Building Material & Supply Dealers 229,356,567 412,413,239 1.80 Outdoor Power Equipment Stores 3,472,238 2,225,479 0.64 Nursery and Garden Centers 19,239,094 27,734,720 1.44 Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores 22,711,332 29,960,199 1.32 Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supply Dealers 252,067,900 442,373,439 1.76 Site Address Analysis Geography Site 1 TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA 93422 Secondary Trade Area Food and Beverage Stores Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores 248,850,506 262,551,642 1.06 Convenience Stores 12,835,174 8,100,524 0.63 Grocery Stores 261,685,681 270,652,166 1.03 Specialty Food Stores 8,966,152 5,224,670 0.58 Beer, Wine, & Liquor Stores 18,956,853 32,163,144 1.70 Food & Beverage Stores 289,608,687 308,039,981 1.06 Site Address Analysis Geography Site 1 TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA 93422 Secondary Trade Area Health and Personal Care Stores Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Pharmacies and Drug Stores 94,415,047 86,843,629 0.92 Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies and Perfume Stores 3,879,787 2,569,590 0.66 Optical Goods Stores 4,420,354 1,893,337 0.43 Other Health and Personal Care Stores 7,091,296 20,116,570 2.84 Health & Personal Care Stores 109,806,485 111,423,127 1.01 Site Address Analysis Geography Site 1 TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA 93422 Secondary Trade Area Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Mens Clothing Stores 5,152,946 3,136,270 0.61 Womens Clothing Stores 20,954,484 20,447,492 0.98 Childrens and Infants Clothing Stores 3,885,263 3,088,226 0.79 Family Clothing Stores 42,763,604 30,486,583 0.71 Clothing Accessories Stores 1,932,865 1,571,067 0.81 Other Clothing Stores 5,442,289 7,999,322 1.47 Clothing Stores 80,131,452 66,728,963 0.83 Shoe Stores 15,586,684 16,598,965 1.07 Jewelry Stores 15,639,492 11,140,629 0.71 Luggage, & Leather Goods Stores 1,285,575 353,715 0.28 Jewelry, Luggage, & Leather Goods Stores 16,925,067 11,494,344 0.68 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores 112,643,204 94,822,272 0.84 Site Address Analysis Geography Site 1 TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA 93422 Secondary Trade Area Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Sporting Goods Stores 14,914,404 50,287,633 3.37 Hobby, Toys and Games Stores 9,211,820 7,138,659 0.78 Sew/Needlework/Piece Goods Stores 2,824,410 3,888,880 1.38 Musical Instrument and Supplies Stores 3,460,155 2,138,848 0.62 Sporting Goods, Hobby, & Musical Instrument Stores 30,410,790 63,454,022 2.09 Book Stores 12,084,780 12,939,704 1.07 News Dealers and Newsstands 556,457 796,770 1.43 Book Stores and News Dealers 12,641,237 13,736,474 1.09 Prerecorded Tape, Compact Disc, and Record Stores 5,688,882 8,057,329 1.42 Book, Periodical, & Music Stores 18,330,120 21,793,804 1.19 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores 48,740,911 85,247,826 1.75 Site Address Analysis Geography Site 1 TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA 93422 Secondary Trade Area General Merchandise Stores Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Department Stores excluding leased depts.132,594,523 132,732,793 1.00 Warehouse Clubs and Super Stores 132,958,434 110,735,997 0.83 All Other General Merchandise Stores 21,661,166 2,419,365 0.11 Other General Merchandise Stores 154,619,601 113,155,362 0.73 General Merchandise Stores 287,214,125 245,888,155 0.86 Site Address Analysis Geography Site 1 TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA 93422 Secondary Trade Area Miscellaneous Store Retailers Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Florists 4,635,567 5,746,823 1.24 Office Supplies and Stationery Stores 15,004,385 16,530,051 1.10 Gift, Novelty, and Souvenir Stores 11,560,661 20,829,919 1.80 Office Supplies, Stationery, & Gift Stores 26,565,046 37,359,970 1.41 Used Merchandise Stores 5,685,304 5,206,776 0.92 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers 28,598,095 23,995,161 0.84 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 65,484,013 72,308,732 1.10 Site Address Analysis Geography Site 1 TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA 93422 Secondary Trade Area Foodservice and Drinking Places Potential Actual Sales Leakage/Surplus Index Full-service Restaurants 116,013,643 187,555,852 1.62 Limited-service Eating Places 107,373,985 127,506,772 1.19 Special Foodservices 20,567,413 12,166,298 0.59 Drinking Places -Alcoholic Beverages 11,140,296 5,336,509 0.48 Foodservice & Drinking Places 255,095,338 332,565,433 1.30 Site Address Analysis Geography Site 1 TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA 93422 Secondary Trade Area Sources and Methodology Household demand estimates are derived by combining data from the Consumer Expenditures Survey by the Bureau of Labor Statistics with current household demographic estimates from Claritas. The demand estimates only account for household expenditures. Demand is defined as the estimated dollar amount spent by a household that resides in the area of analysis for a specified retail store type or merchandise line item. Supply estimates are generated from the Census of Retail Trade, a component of the Economic Census. County-level sales tax data is allocated to low levels of geography using business sales estimates, business locations, and employee counts provided by Claritas' Business Facts® database. Supply includes all products sold at retail outlets in a specified area for a one-year period. Supply is defined as the estimated total retail sales for a retail store type or merchandise line item. Source: Retail Market Power (Claritas). Appendix B: Demographic Report Demographics Analysis Geography:TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA Date:8/26/2008 Secondary Trade Area 15 Min Drive TimePopulation Profile 2012 Projection 2007 Estimate 2000 Census 1990 Census 71,919 51,132 149,656 121,149 66,957 142,636 60,735 134,608 Household Profile 2012 Projection 2007 Estimate 2000 Census 1990 Census 18,319 21,670 24,604 26,771 56,727 53,170 48,627 42,908 Work Place Population 15 Min Drive Time Secondary Trade Area Total 39,135 100,605 15 Min Drive Time Secondary Trade Area Population Change Growth 1990-2000 % Growth 2000-2007 % Growth 5 Year Proj % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 15 Min Drive Time Secondary Trade Area Household Change Growth 1990-2000 % Growth 2000-2007 % Growth 5 Year Proj % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Data Sources: Buxton®, Claritas, Inc., Prizm NE®, © 2008, infoUSA, Inc., © 2008, National Research Bureau, © 2008, Mediamark Research, Inc., © 2008, Geographic Data Technology, Inc, © 2008 Page: 1 Demographics Analysis Geography:TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA Date:8/26/2008 Population By Race (Current) White Black American Indian Asian Pacific Islander Other Two Or More Total Population By Race 66,957 2,673 5,150 81 1,131 757 1,345 55,820 117,634 4,534 1,372 4,555 173 8,959 5,409 142,636 Secondary Trade Area 15 Min Drive Time Population By Hispanic Origin (Current)15 Min Drive Time Secondary Trade Area Hispanic Origin Non Hispanic Origin 12,453 54,504 117,030 25,606 15 Min Drive Time Secondary Trade Area Population By Race (Current) White Black American Indian Asian Pacific Islander Other Two Or More 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Data Sources: Buxton®, Claritas, Inc., Prizm NE®, © 2008, infoUSA, Inc., © 2008, National Research Bureau, © 2008, Mediamark Research, Inc., © 2008, Geographic Data Technology, Inc, © 2008 Page: 2 Demographics Analysis Geography:TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA Date:8/26/2008 Population By Age (Current)15 Min Drive Time Secondary Trade Area 0 to 4 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 17 years 18 to 20 years 21 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85+ Years Total Population By Age Average Age 37.7 66,957 1,445 3,122 3,881 3,017 4,252 5,180 5,680 8,587 7,980 3,901 3,459 3,806 4,708 3,958 3,981 6,329 6,376 7,478 5,444 11,849 13,843 20,268 18,330 10,466 9,825 8,402 6,032 7,902 6,720 3,372 142,636 37.8 Median Age 37.5 36.8 15 Min Drive Time Secondary Trade Area Population By Age (Current)0 - 4 Years5 - 9 Years10 - 14 Years15 - 17 Years18 - 20 Years21 - 24 Years25 - 34 Years35 - 44 Years45 - 49 Years50 - 54 Years55 - 59 Years60 - 64 Years65 - 74 Years75 - 84 Years85+ Years15% 10% 5% 0% Data Sources: Buxton®, Claritas, Inc., Prizm NE®, © 2008, infoUSA, Inc., © 2008, National Research Bureau, © 2008, Mediamark Research, Inc., © 2008, Geographic Data Technology, Inc, © 2008 Page: 3 Demographics Analysis Geography:TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA Date:8/26/2008 Households By Income (Current) 15 Min Drive Time Secondary Trade Area Under $15,000 $15,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 to $249,999 $250,000 to $499,999 $500,000 + Total Households By Income Average Household Income Per Capita Income 2,464 2,264 2,446 3,853 5,324 3,680 3,179 1,075 243 76 24,604 $67,878 $26,867 $27,749 $62,533 53,170 174 564 2,260 5,834 6,405 10,115 8,244 5,728 5,850 7,996 Median Household Income $57,056 $50,245 15 Min Drive Time Secondary Trade Area Households By Income (Current)Under $15K15K - 25K25K - 35K35K - 50K50K - 75K75K - 100K100K - 150K150K - 250K250K - 500K500K +23.51% 21.84% 20.16% 18.48% 16.8% 15.12% 13.44% 11.76% 10.08% 8.4% 6.72% 5.04% 3.36% 1.68% 0% Data Sources: Buxton®, Claritas, Inc., Prizm NE®, © 2008, infoUSA, Inc., © 2008, National Research Bureau, © 2008, Mediamark Research, Inc., © 2008, Geographic Data Technology, Inc, © 2008 Page: 4 Demographics Analysis Geography:TRAFFIC WAY & EL CAMINO REAL ATASCADERO, CA Date:8/26/2008 Housing Units By Occupancy (Current) 15 Min Drive Time Secondary Trade Area Owner - Occupied Renter - Occupied Vacant Owner - Occupied Property Values (Current) 63.9% 32.4% 3.8%7.1% 40.3% 52.7% Under $20,000 $20,000 to $39,999 $40,000 to $59,999 $60,000 to $79,999 $80,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 to $199,999 $200,000 to $299,999 $300,000 to $399,999 $400,000 to $499,999 $500,000 to $749,999 $750,000 to $999,999 $1,000,000 + Total Owner - Occupied Property Values 16,329 783 1,336 4,056 3,278 3,791 1,767 397 265 196 106 104 166 84 184 266 265 310 328 646 767 2,684 5,243 5,136 8,320 3,400 2,588 30,137 Median Property Value 440,910 516,499 15 Min Drive Time Secondary Trade Area Owner - Occupied Property Values (Current)Under 20K20K - 40K40K - 60K60K - 80K80K - 100K100K - 150K150K - 200K200K - 300K300K - 400K400K - 500K500K - 750K750K - 1000K1000K +31.67% 28.15% 24.63% 21.11% 17.59% 14.07% 10.56% 7.04% 3.52% 0% Data Sources: Buxton®, Claritas, Inc., Prizm NE®, © 2008, infoUSA, Inc., © 2008, National Research Bureau, © 2008, Mediamark Research, Inc., © 2008, Geographic Data Technology, Inc, © 2008 Page: 5