HomeMy WebLinkAbout2023 Comprehensive Financial Strategy
Atascadero
Comprehensive Financial Strategy
April 2023
DollarsYears
Financial Strategy
Expenses Revenues
City of Atascadero
Financial Strategy – April 2023
Introduction:
The City of Atascadero has worked hard to maintain fiscal stability through the ups and
downs in the economy that have occurred over the years. The effects of the state,
national, and worldwide financial environments all have an impact on the local
economy. The ability of an organization to navigate through a changing environment is
often times directly related to the planning and preparation that was done in advance.
Fortunately, through Atascadero’s visionary leadership, appropriate policies and
strategies have been put in place and continue to be used to help maintain consistent
City services, regardless of the state of the economy. Of course, to make this happen,
tradeoffs have been, and will continue to need to be agreed upon in order to keep the
organization strong and resilient.
The City of Atascadero has experienced its share of financial challenges over the last
three or more decades. In the early 1990s, a sharp slow-down of the economy
devastated the City’s budget and brought the staff to a skeleton crew. In more recent
years, the state budget crisis brought more challenges as the State sought to balance
their budget on the backs of local government. Then there was the Great Recession in
2008, the loss of redevelopment in 2012, and, of course, the pandemic-induced
recession in 2020. The importance of a well-defined financial strategy to anticipate and
conquer difficult issues cannot be understated. Equally as important, is the privilege
and responsibility of the recent Sales Tax Measure D-20 Essential Service Tax revenue.
The maintenance of a strong organization is shared community wide, but as the City
Council and City employees, we agree to be the leaders in this effort. The Council has
shown great leadership in its forward-thinking members and continues to look toward
ensuring a sustainable future.
As with all successful organizations, the City needs to continue to revisit and update the
long-term plan. A current yet fluid Fiscal Strategy is a key element of building a solid
foundation upon which to move into the future. The City first adopted a Financial
Strategy in 1998 and by focusing its resources, its financial condition has improved
dramatically since that time.
The financial plan should outline general
strategies and guidelines to mold the City’s
decisions. The plan should identify actions
and describe the current belief of the
organizational needs. However, it should also
be flexible as the economy or situations
change, direction and efforts can be modified
to best suit the needs of the City and
community. The plan requires periodic updates
to ensure the City’s financial strategy remains
current and reflects the priorities of the
citizenry.
1
The overall strategy has consistently been to maintain a conservative outlook by putting
aside reserves in good times and then using those reserves during down periods to
achieve stable operations. By employing this conservative strategy, the City can avoid
the undesirable peaks and valleys in services due to revenue fluctuations and can
better maintain its long-term financial vitality.
Comprehensive Financial Strategy:
The first section of this plan highlights some of the actions that Council and staff have
taken to accomplish Council’s Strategic Goals and focus on financial health.
The second section reviews some of the major revenues for the City. This section
includes a description of these sources, how they’ve changed over the years, and what
that means to the City now and into the future.
The third section analyzes ongoing operating costs. This includes employee and
benefits costs, trends and assumptions. Additionally, this section reviews operating
service costs, supplies, and capital expenditures.
The fourth section discusses long-term costs. These include discussions on long-term
funding for maintenance and replacement of streets and bridges, storm drains,
buildings, technology, vehicles, and equipment. Additionally, employee leave accruals
are reviewed and analyzed.
The fifth section discusses reserves. The City has several different types of reserves to
serve different purposes. The organization must retain some reserves to deal with cash
flow issues, personnel, equipment, liabilities, and other unexpected expenses. Having a
prudent plan to deal with ongoing operating costs and reserves will allow the Council
and community to understand levels of risk in the City’s financial operation.
The sixth and last section reviews the City’s fiscal policies. These policies guide our
budget process, projects, purchases and general City business. The City has taken a
variety of steps over the years to maximize limited resources including economic
development, strengthening of reserves, short- and long-term budget reductions,
Strategic Planning, and revenue enhancement solutions. Staff continues to search for
ideas to better the financial condition of the organization.
As we noted, all organizations must have a plan to succeed. This plan keeps the City’s
focus on the top priorities. The plan is dynamic and change is always expected.
Improvements will occur and good ideas are invited from all sources. The underlying
belief is that through our collective knowledge and teamwork, the City will continue to
have a strong financial foundation that will withstand adversity.
2
Atascadero
Comprehensive Financial Strategy
April 2023
Section 1- Key Actions
3
Highlights of Key Actions
Council and employees have worked as a powerful team to maintain the organization as
fiscally nimble as possible. Critical indicators and influences are continuously monitored
and analyzed so adjustments and modifications can be made as new information is
available. Detailed below are highlights of some of the key actions completed, in
progress, or as future action items to move forward Council’s priority goals determined
during the 2021/23 Budget Cycle.
Economic and Community Vibrancy
• Restart events
• Plan and execute events at the new Zoo event center
• Design events around new plaza
• Hold new/recurring events in Centennial plaza to ensure the space is shared by
all in the community
• Encourage events on privately owned vacant properties downtown (interim until
developed)
• Encourage more events that focus on downtown (Music, Food, Host a stage)
• Pursue funding and complete construction documents for Downtown
Infrastructure Enhancement Plan
• Assist development of new restaurants
• Explore ways to reduce start-up costs
• Maximize utilization of the plazas (food trucks, etc.)
• Look for funding and opportunities to fix existing street trees & sidewalks in the
downtown
• Pursue opportunities along East Mall
• Develop land use options for the adapted re-use options of the City-owned
property near Centennial Plaza
• Explore programs such as infrastructure assistance, parking flexibility, and
zoning changes to promote new desired development of underutilized space
• Promote the preservation of the theater in Colony square
• Pursue the Armory site as a potential location for replacement of fire station #1
• Develop and implement a plan to increase utilization of parking in City-owned
alleys
• Communicate collaboratively with businesses to encourage a sense of pride,
ownership, positive attitude, and harmony that promotes downtown vibrancy
• Work to enhance broadband infrastructure
• Evaluate areas for restricted time parking
• Expand the Outreach for Underrepresented Residents (OUR)Team
• Increase pedestrian safety/access downtown through the Downtown
Infrastructure Enhancement Plan
• Commence citywide General Plan Update
4
• Creatively support development at Del Rio, Dove Creek & San Anselmo nodes
• Implement an online payment and tracking system for City fees and tax
payments
• Discuss potential policies related to wastewater capacity charges and other
development fees that may discourage desired business types
• Look for opportunities and grants to fund infrastructure
• Create and incentivize a new customer satisfaction survey for permit/planning
processes
• Support expansion of Bridgeworks through SB1090
• Update City Engineering Standards to provide safe and consistent public
improvements
• Perform critical third-party review of permitting process towards essentialism
• Explore Community Choice Energy (February 2022)
Fiscal and Infrastructure Efficiency and Sustainability
• Purchase and implement an asset management system
• Prepare a detailed inventory w/condition assessment
• Develop a sustainable replacement plan for City assets
• Begin funding vehicle, technology, equipment, infrastructure and facility reserves
• Replace failing/vulnerable and vital equipment and facilities and citywide
apparatus
• Begin Replacement of Fire Station #1
• Prepare needs assessment
• Explore use of Armory site for Fire Station #1 replacement project
• Complete design phase and engineer’s estimates
• Prepare financing plan
• Ensure that the resources (tools, equipment, facilities) are available to assist staff
and to build staff capacity.
• Identify and invest in equipment and facilities to increase long-term operational
efficiencies
• Use technology where appropriate/right technology applications to save staff time
• Expand energy infrastructure (back-up generators, redundancy)
• Consider sidewalk repair amnesty or other limited assistance program
• Develop responsible reserves for unfunded liabilities (non-asset)
• Explore and consider funding Section 115 Trust for pension
• Consider additional payments for unfunded pension liability (UAL)
• Look for ways to fund reserve for future State and Federal mandates
• Adopt budgets and fiscal strategies that:
o Continue conservative Council/general fiscal strategy
o Prepare the City for changing economic conditions
5
o Consider and plan for lifecycle costs and long-term cost savings/cost-
effectiveness
o Develop balanced strategy of operational expenditures vs. capital/one-
time expenditures that will accommodate future growth for Measure D-20
funds
• Implement opportunities, strategies and plans to grow the organization as the
community grows
• Identify and modestly invest in programs to increase long-term operational
efficiencies
• Capitalize on grant opportunities to accomplish action plan goals
• Explore public and private partnerships to achieve action plan goals
• Use technology for transparency and accountability
• Overhaul/modernize/simplify/make more efficient website
• Develop and implement strategy to maintain website and accessibility
• Implement records management program to facilitate access to public records
• Prepare, publicize and widely distribute an annual report on the use of Measure
D-20 funds. While the Measure D-20 annual report will not include detailed
accounting of spending, it should include information on the general areas where
the funding was targeted, the goals to be achieved with the Measure D-20
funding, and objective metrics for measuring the success in achieving those
goals.
Ensuring Public Safety and Providing Exceptional City Services
• Hire and retain an adequate number of staff to achieve our priorities
• Complete an essentialism evaluation of each department
• Provide competitive salaries/benefits and appropriate classifications for all
employees
• Provide opportunities for employee growth & succession
• Explore other retention and attraction strategies
• Provide training and professional development opportunities
• Hire for heart- look to hire employees that care and are vested in the community
• Encourage growth and development of local workforce
• Expand police department explorer program
• Explore a wider City employee recognition/commendation program
• Work to ensure that employees have the tools necessary to do their job
• Train and educate staff and community members on available support resources
for our unhoused population
• Train and educate staff and community members on compassionate interactions
with our underrepresented residents
• Establish needed Outreach for Underrepresented Residents (OUR) Team
(formerly known as CAT)
6
• Support partner non-government organizations outreach efforts
• Support regional combined approach related to unhoused population
• Perform regular clean-ups of problem encampments
• Perform vegetation management activities in the Downtown District
• Implement strategies to encourage existing unhoused residents to reduce trash
and litter in public and sensitive environmental areas
• Implement strategies for ongoing areas of public concern including design of
public spaces
• Provide staff resources to maximize effectiveness (use technology)
• Look for opportunities and grants to provide resources to respond to future
opportunities to support underrepresented residents
• Hold more public safety outreach events
• Ensure that all messaging is accessible and consistent across all media
platforms
• Look for more opportunities for public engagement
• Continue online and in-person engagement in decision-making discussions
• Improve emergency planning communications with business community through
the fire inspection program
Quality of Life
• See Action Items under the “Economic and Community Vibrancy” section
• Discuss long-term capital needs of the zoo and the viability of continuing AZA
accreditation
• Begin to address key deferred maintenance issues in parks and public spaces
• Fund lake quality program to mitigate algae blooms
• Work with and support community partners and volunteers to advance diversity,
inclusion, and community beautification
• Use technology to facilitate volunteer opportunities
• Encourage regional organizations that bring attention to childcare needs in the
community
• Continue on-going successful partnerships with organizations such as ECHO,
LINK, and AUSD
• Remain involved in regional efforts to improve broadband access to residents
and businesses
• Educate staff and community members of availability of mental health resources
that are available in the community
• Continue to implement affordable housing policies of the General Plan Housing
Element including minimum densities, objective design standards, small lot
standards, ADU ordinance, and inclusionary housing ordinance
• Explore Community Choice Energy (February 2022)
7
During Council’s Strategic Planning Sessions in February, 2023, the Council,
community and staff highlighted some recent “wins” for the City. These are items that
have been accomplished, achieved, or occurred that have had a positive impact on the
community and city organization.
• Traffic Way sewer project
• Partnerships with the community
• La Plaza development completion
• COVID response/navigation
• East Mall Properties
• Keeping the community safe
• Additional Dwelling Units (ADU) Stock Plans
• Cooperation with the school district
• Social media engagement
• Teamwork between staff and council
• Staff approachability and staff engagement
• Good customer service
• Good City Council
• Downtown infrastructure enhancement
• Measure F-14 Road work and improvements
• Property improvement at the corner of El Camino Real and Traffic Way
• Joy Playground completion
• Zoo Garden Event Center
• Zone Haven and Evacuation Plan
• Creation of new Mission Statement
• Passage of Measure D-20 and retention of personnel
• Public engagement
• Good new staff hires
• Del Rio Specific Plan
• 2023 Storm flood response and pre-storm preparation
• Pickleball courts
• Alleyway paving project
• Traffic Way change to 3 lanes
• Wastewater lift station #2 renovation
• Emergency equipment replacement to include radio and repeaters
• Adoption of new fee schedule
• Fall Festival
• The Plaza on El Camino Real
• Keeping people engaged during COVID
• Collaboration with other agencies during emergencies and future planning
8
• Meeting and exceeding Reginal Housing Needs Allocation numbers
• Funding of $3 million through Senator Laird
• Fire Department 100-year anniversary
• Public Safety Plan
• General Plan work
• Maintaining City’s urban status
• Credit card acceptance program for Central Reception
• CAD/RMS Project replacement
• Fully staffed City Manager’s office
• Management of Senate Bill 1383, Organics Recycling
• First Fridays
• Friends of the Zoo
• Active movie theater
• Transient Occupancy Tax revenue increases
• Assistance with ECHO expansion
• CAT/OUR Team foundation
• New business opportunities near The Plaza on El Camino Real
• Fiscal solvency
• Success through staff turnover
• Resumed in-person recognitions
• Transparency with City spending
• Small Business Grant Program
• Community Choice Energy
• Fire Marshall position added
• Peer Support/Mental Health for our employees
• Events
• Zoo boxes and virtual engagement
• Countywide Five-year plan
• ARPA funding
• Broadband grant
• Economic development position addition
• Bridgeworks expansion
• Chamber of Commerce teamwork
• Clean financial audit report
• Conservative fiscal approach
• Introduction of kickball league
• Strong City executive team
• Sewer fee update
9
Conclusion
These actions are but a small sampling of the work that has been done, and continues
to be done, to successfully move toward the Council’s goals. This will continue to
position the City to respond to the ebbs and flows of an uncertain economy and to make
the community an even better place to live and visit.
Seven Year Projection
In preparation of the two-year budget process, staff prepared a Seven Year Projection
to more fully understand the long-term impacts of the two-year budget. The Seven Year
Projection is an excellent planning tool to get a broader perspective of how the
organization will fare and to ensure that the level of reserves currently available are
appropriate. Similar to the planning horizon for Strategic Planning purposes, the seven
year view is generally believed to be a reasonable time frame for projecting the future.
Staff has updated the projection’s key revenues and expenses and extended them out
to seven years.
A ten-year history and a Seven Year Projection are displayed on the following pages.
10
Actual
2012/2013
Actual
2013/2014
Actual
2014/2015
Actual
2015/2016
Actual
2016/2017
Actual
2017/2018
Actual
2018/2019
Actual
2019/2020
Actual
2020/2021
Actual
2021/2022
Taxes
6,766,432$ 7,183,294$ 7,462,645$ 7,853,744$ 8,308,110$ 8,743,471$ 9,197,648$ 9,480,157$ 9,857,013$ 10,282,677$
RDA Dissolution Distributions 2,374,020 150,565 131,077 181,523 283,066 759,176 460,501 465,449 527,383 497,884
Other Property Taxes 176,693 218,048 278,887 280,534 336,496 296,515 332,067 396,138 408,113 433,071
Sales Tax *3,295,061 3,510,813 3,428,731 3,812,457 3,620,027 4,058,583 4,133,073 4,188,715 4,728,862 5,169,751
Sales Tax - Measure D-20 - - - - - - - - 1,415,443 6,239,847
Franchise Fees 1,009,974 1,058,736 1,041,578 1,047,677 1,168,572 1,099,534 1,117,791 1,146,994 1,232,615 1,301,298
Transient Occupancy Tax 703,990 771,019 852,154 1,238,431 1,337,528 1,376,498 1,390,972 1,123,619 1,385,896 2,049,160
Other Taxes 270,090 269,684 318,826 313,844 319,124 368,885 350,047 333,635 433,722 454,656
Permits 404,420 648,501 619,182 518,013 542,181 472,398 585,524 614,507 754,420 787,086
Intergovernmental 101,364 100,786 203,137 137,993 139,698 184,415 164,735 1,182,335 557,292 3,829,655
Grants 269,330 72,451 166,837 103,203 13,455 272,265 180,817 275,881 155,648 385,669
Service Fees
Safety Fees 239,274 233,012 220,911 191,158 194,113 204,270 213,082 212,763 233,544 230,548
Mutual Aid 688,182 590,311 511,899 758,524 473,670 643,165 342,543 239,292 1,442,644 693,598
Development Fees 767,005 1,001,012 644,836 596,370 728,993 535,114 697,321 632,008 689,401 643,780
Recreation Fees 312,422 313,738 311,583 339,714 362,792 326,418 332,099 223,025 77,986 309,724
Administrative Fees 49,117 56,175 50,842 47,591 56,654 54,096 58,884 59,118 65,619 70,945
Pavilion & Other Rental Fees 149,811 158,579 108,698 115,140 115,069 148,550 135,392 85,682 19,991 132,591
Parks Fees 36,156 33,304 35,191 32,983 36,980 25,123 50,373 25,747 9,860 48,852
Zoo Fees 334,174 350,179 352,610 376,252 377,732 417,983 438,779 336,927 682,418 746,188
Fines 60,418 66,730 108,839 92,007 76,981 87,647 117,943 90,707 49,312 58,580
Interest Income 51,961 61,127 46,308 105,686 3,231 9,741 270,995 385,548 95,125 (525,334)
Other
Interfund Charges 1,002,650 980,999 923,738 1,056,563 1,189,488 1,088,534 1,055,347 1,113,639 1,214,010 1,363,975
Donations 99,337 74,501 791,833 486,556 242,282 48,333 176,967 47,360 55,071 65,390
Other 160,964 112,125 124,665 78,906 45,654 27,818 31,645 66,680 115,634 125,419
Transfers 752,219 363,600 372,470 391,090 494,190 540,250 548,350 690,450 698,950 703,570
Total Revenues 20,075,064 18,379,289 19,107,477 20,155,959 20,466,086 21,788,782 22,382,895 23,416,376 26,905,972 36,098,580
Employee Services (12,926,538) (12,286,188) (13,254,966) (13,429,637) (14,213,908) (14,882,845) (14,886,317) (15,755,553) (16,722,868) (18,665,393)
Operations (4,946,518) (4,555,813) (4,490,717) (4,834,594) (4,896,276) (5,383,830) (5,373,114) (5,871,187) (5,844,712) (7,518,538)
(514,586) (844,797) (789,322) (370,934) (1,351,509) (338,333) (1,005,181) (585,561) (975,754) (610,243)
Capital Outlay (136,425) (77,967) (732,778) (713,773) (236,948) (315,252) (86,124) (111,429) (1,139,757) (1,036,630)
Other Uses (10,491) (1,080) (1,020) (1,400) (1,400) (1,400) (2,690) (3,250) (3,250) (4,000)
Total Expenses (18,534,558) (17,765,845) (19,268,803) (19,350,338) (20,700,041) (20,921,660) (21,353,426) (22,326,980) (24,686,341) (27,834,804)
1,540,506 613,444 (161,326) 805,621 (233,955) 867,122 1,029,469 1,089,396 2,219,631 8,263,776
- - - - - - - - (1,375,175) -
1,540,506 613,444 (161,326) 805,621 (233,955) 867,122 1,029,469 1,089,396 844,456 8,263,776
Fund Balance Beginning of Year 6,466,562 8,007,068 8,620,512 8,459,186 9,264,807 9,030,852 9,897,974 10,927,443 12,016,839 12,861,295
FUND BALANCE END OF YEAR 8,007,068$ 8,620,512$ 8,459,186$ 9,264,807$ 9,030,852$ 9,897,974$ 10,927,443$ 12,016,839$ 12,861,295$ 21,125,071$
Fund Balance as % of Expenses 43.2%48.5%43.9%47.9%43.6%47.3%51.2%53.8%52.1%75.9%
* Sales Tax Measure F-14 funds are not included
Net changes in fund balance
Special Projects & Community
Funding
Property Tax (Current Secured
& VLF)
Net changes in fund balance prior
to extraordinary item
Extraordinary gains/(losses)-
Write-off of RDA Loans
Ten Year History *
General Fund
(excluding Sales Tax Measure F-14 Activity)
11
Adopted
Budget
2022/2023
Estimated
2022/2023
Estimated
2023/2024
Estimated
2024/2025
Estimated
2025/2026
Estimated
2026/2027
Estimated
2027/2028
Estimated
2028/2029
Estimated
2029/2030
Taxes
10,619,020$ 10,975,430$ 11,414,560$ 11,872,880$ 12,291,490$ 12,724,730$ 13,172,180$ 13,635,290$ 14,141,280$
RDA Dissolution Distributions 527,500 519,830 566,220 604,330 642,160 682,390 721,060 682,700 720,980
Other Property Taxes 443,970 450,200 452,900 455,620 458,370 464,950 467,760 470,590 473,450
Sales Tax *4,654,950 5,244,780 5,204,540 5,324,240 5,483,970 5,648,490 5,817,940 5,992,480 6,172,250
Sales Tax - Measure D-20 5,430,000 6,425,270 6,404,870 6,564,990 6,761,940 6,964,800 7,173,740 7,388,950 7,610,620
Franchise Fees 1,255,480 1,346,100 1,385,680 1,405,080 1,420,000 1,435,090 1,450,350 1,465,790 1,481,410
Transient Occupancy Tax 1,490,830 2,065,000 2,090,100 2,131,900 2,174,500 2,218,000 2,262,400 2,307,600 2,353,800
Other Taxes 368,620 317,800 319,900 322,030 324,190 326,380 328,600 330,850 333,150
Permits 700,550 782,600 808,960 824,720 832,620 840,890 849,230 866,090 883,290
Intergovernmental 211,540 3,807,260 3,211,830 221,900 226,440 185,800 190,730 195,840 201,130
Grants 19,240 268,320 - - - - - - -
Service Fees
Safety Fees 219,340 224,010 216,610 220,190 223,140 226,160 229,230 232,360 235,540
Mutual Aid 250,000 350,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000
Development Fees 614,670 828,300 782,540 796,260 801,950 807,700 813,490 824,940 836,620
Recreation Fees 305,780 263,880 287,330 317,860 331,190 345,340 361,380 377,370 395,380
Administrative Fees 60,200 70,870 69,400 70,320 70,950 71,610 72,280 73,140 74,040
Pavilion & Other Rental Fees 128,610 111,000 113,770 116,620 119,530 122,520 125,570 128,710 131,930
Parks Fees 26,160 40,500 42,110 43,170 44,260 45,370 46,500 47,670 48,860
Zoo Fees 463,450 679,950 682,570 690,260 697,240 706,760 716,400 726,180 736,090
Fines 61,600 46,140 41,200 41,700 42,410 43,140 43,880 44,630 45,390
Interest Income 61,000 188,190 236,580 256,590 256,600 256,610 256,620 256,630 256,640
Other
Interfund Charges 1,327,640 1,318,380 1,353,960 1,354,920 1,356,110 1,359,280 1,362,450 1,365,520 1,368,930
Donations 24,500 21,070 24,500 24,500 24,960 24,960 25,430 25,910 26,400
Other 24,960 41,710 37,870 38,290 38,730 39,170 39,620 40,070 40,540
Transfers 746,460 746,460 768,850 791,920 815,680 840,150 865,350 891,310 918,050
Total Revenues 30,036,070 37,133,050 36,766,850 34,740,290 35,688,430 36,630,290 37,642,190 38,620,620 39,735,770
Employee Services (20,631,090) (19,729,440) (21,321,560) (22,195,000) (22,595,110) (23,272,970) (24,080,560) (24,872,170) (25,823,420)
Operations (7,979,780) (8,118,890) (8,637,290) (8,845,710) (9,003,320) (9,023,320) (9,175,130) (9,355,450) (9,452,850)
(912,680) (2,963,190) (1,600,000) (100,000) (100,000) (100,000) (100,000) (100,000) (100,000)
Capital Outlay (1,208,970) (2,677,100) (4,200,000) (6,894,580) (1,800,000) (1,800,000) (1,800,000) (1,800,000) (1,800,000)
Other Uses (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000)
Total Expenses (30,736,520) (33,492,620) (35,762,850) (38,039,290) (33,502,430) (34,200,290) (35,159,690) (36,131,620) (37,180,270)
(700,450) 3,640,430 1,004,000 (3,299,000) 2,186,000 2,430,000 2,482,500 2,489,000 2,555,500
- - - - - - - - -
(700,450) 3,640,430 1,004,000 (3,299,000) 2,186,000 2,430,000 2,482,500 2,489,000 2,555,500
Fund Balance Beginning of Year 8,764,760 21,125,070 24,765,500 25,769,500 22,470,500 24,656,500 27,086,500 29,569,000 32,058,000
FUND BALANCE END OF YEAR 8,064,310$ 24,765,500$ 25,769,500$ 22,470,500$ 24,656,500$ 27,086,500$ 29,569,000$ 32,058,000$ 34,613,500$
Fund Balance as % of Expenses 26.2%73.9%72.1%59.1%73.6%79.2%84.1%88.7%93.1%
* Sales Tax Measure F-14 funds are not included
Net changes in fund balance
Special Projects & Community
Funding
Property Tax (Current Secured
& VLF)
Net changes in fund balance prior
to extraordinary item
Extraordinary gains/(losses)-
Write-off of RDA Loans
General Fund
(excluding Sales Tax Measure F-14 Activity)
Seven Year Projection*
12
Atascadero
Comprehensive Financial Strategy
April 2023
Section 2- Significant Revenues
13
Significant Revenues
The General Fund is the City’s primary operating fund, providing resources for most of
the City’s ongoing activities including police, fire, parks, recreation and general
government. It is this fund that the Council has the most discretion in directing
expenditures and accomplishing Council priorities. For many years, the City’s top three
General Fund revenues were 1) Property Tax revenue, 2) Sales Tax revenue, and 3)
Development Fee revenue, in that order. Property Tax and Sales Tax, while they have
evolved over the years, still maintain the top two positions for percentage of General Fund
revenue. Transient Occupancy Tax revenue (TOT) is now the third largest source of
general fund revenue.
Sales Tax Measure D-20 was passed by Atascadero Voters in November 2020, and
placed an additional one cent of sales tax on applicable purchases. Council understood
the importance of transparency and the need to ensure that the public would have multiple
opportunities to provide input on the City’s priorities and the expenditure of both the tax
measure funds and other City funds, and planned a series of 20 public outreach meetings
to discuss the funding. Measure D-20 Revenue is coming in stronger than originally
expected, and is estimated to be about $6.2 million per year. Although the Bradley-Burns
base sales tax revenue is charged at one percent like Measure D-20, Measure D-20
actually brings in more revenue due to the fact Atascadero collects Measure D-20 on
certain items purchased by residents outside the area, while the Bradley-Burns portion of
that same sale goes to the City where the purchase takes place.
The local, state and national economies all impact revenues in Atascadero. While there
continue to be challenges associated with COVID-19, by and large things are back to the
new normal. Property tax revenues are stable, and other revenues such as sales tax and
transient occupancy tax have increased more than projected.
Revenue projections in this discussion are based on information at the time of this writing,
and staff will continue to adjust them as more is known.
Following will be a review of all these key income sources in detail, as well as other
important, but smaller, revenue sources. Although both Sales Tax Measure D-20 and
Sales Tax Measure F-14 are General Fund Taxes, the discussion below will include
Measure D-20 impacts, but will exclude Measure F-14 impacts, as Measure F-14 is
focused on local road maintenance projects and not for ongoing City services.
14
Property Tax Revenue
The City of Atascadero currently
receives around 30%-35% of its
General Fund revenues from
property tax revenues.
WHAT ARE PROPERTY TAX
REVENUES?
Property tax revenues are taxes
imposed on real property (land
and permanently attached
improvements) and tangible
personal property (movable
property). The tax is based on the
value of the property rather than
on a fixed amount or benefit to the
property or person. Proposition
13 (Article XIIIA of the State
Constitution) limits the real
property tax rate to 1% of a
property’s assessed value, plus rates approved by the voters. The amount of the tax is
based on an annually determined assessed valuation. The property tax is paid to the
county tax collector and allocated to local taxing agencies pursuant to a statutory
allocation formula. The property tax is guaranteed by placing a lien on the real property.
The City of Atascadero participates in the Teeter Plan. This means that the City receives
its entire amount of the property tax levy regardless of whether or not the tax has been
paid to the County. In exchange, the County is entitled to all future penalties and interest
collected on the levy.
In order to understand property taxes, it is important to understand assessed value.
Proposition 13 calls for a base year assessed value to be established when the property
undergoes a change of ownership (typically a sale) or when new construction occurs.
After the base year value is established, the value is factored annually for inflation, which
is the lesser of the change in cost of living or 2%. The assessed value may also be
adjusted by a Proposition 8 factor. Proposition 8 allows a property to be temporarily
reassessed at a lower value. It requires that the lower of either the adjusted base year
value or the current market value determine a property’s annual assessment. A
significant number of property values were written down to market value during the 2008
recession. When the prices recover, the assessed value is adjusted back up to the lower
of the new fair market value or the original base value adjusted annually for inflation. The
table below illustrates how assessed value would be calculated for a fictional property.
15
Date Description of Changes in
Assesssed Value
CCPI
Factor
Inflation
Factor
Base
Value 1
Fair Market
Value (FMV)
Assessed
Value
Percent
Change2
1/1/X1 Market Value when Purchased N/A N/A 300,000$ 300,000$ 300,000$ N/A
1/1/X2 Annual 2% inflation applied 2.46%2.00%306,000 335,000 306,000 2.00%
1/1/X3 CCPI inflation rate applied 1.85%2.00%311,670 375,000 311,670 1.85%
1/1/X4 Declining Real Estate Market 2.10%2.00%317,904 290,000 290,000 -6.95%
1/1/X5 Slight Improvement in RE Market 4.37%2.00%324,262 300,000 300,000 3.45%
1/1/X6 Drastic Improvement in RE Market 2.08%2.00%330,747 350,000 330,747 10.25%
1/1/X7 Annual 2% inflation applied 2.08%2.00%337,362 360,000 337,362 2.00%
1/1/X7 Home addition adds $50,000
to base value N/A N/A 380,747 410,000 380,747 12.86%
1/1/X8 CCPI inflation rate applied 1.01%2.00%384,592 437,000 384,592 1.01%
1/1/X9 Annual 2% inflation applied 2.76%2.00%392,284 450,000 392,284 2.00%
1 Base Value is calculated on lessor of CCPI or Inflation Factor
2 Amount of Change from prior year assessment
EXAMPLE OFASSESSED VALUE FOR FICTIONAL HOME
The City receives various forms of property tax revenues each with its own distinct issues
and trends as follows:
Current Year Secured - Current secured revenues
usually make up about 65% of the City’s property
tax revenues and are what most people think of
when discussing property taxes. Assessed values
are established as of January 1 of each year and
taxes are paid to the Tax Collector in two
installments, due on December 10 and April 10. As
the Tax Collector receives the funds, they are then
allocated and distributed to the various agencies,
including the City. Amounts levied but not
collected by the County are distributed to the City
under the Teeter Plan at the end of the fiscal year.
Property Tax in Lieu of Vehicle License Fees - This
revenue source grew out of a state-local budget
agreement as part of the State 2004 budget
package. Under this arrangement, the Vehicle
License Fee (VLF) was reduced to Californians and
the reduction in city and county revenues was
replaced with a like amount of property taxes.
Subsequent to the fiscal year 2004/05 base year,
the property tax in lieu of VLF fluctuates in
proportion to the gross assessed valuation in the
City.
Current Year Unsecured - Unsecured property tax
is collected on items such as mobile homes that are
not on a permanent foundation, machinery and
equipment owned by businesses, and personal property such as airplanes and watercraft.
Unsecured roll taxes are due on August 31.
Fiscal
Year Atascadero
% Change
in
Assessed
Value
2003/04 1,964,719,525 9.58%
2004/05 2,166,790,995 10.29%
2005/06 2,424,564,670 11.90%
2006/07 2,796,694,310 15.35%
2007/08 3,090,464,606 10.50%
2008/09 3,153,920,008 2.05%
2009/10 3,048,359,883 -3.35%
2010/11 2,974,274,420 -2.43%
2011/12 2,905,011,491 -2.33%
2012/13 2,911,262,172 0.22%
2013/14 3,016,930,596 3.63%
2014/15 3,194,259,931 5.88%
2015/16 3,378,519,547 5.77%
2016/17 3,578,899,913 5.93%
2017/18 3,775,528,569 5.49%
2018/19 3,990,810,592 5.70%
2019/20 4,172,031,404 4.54%
2020/21 4,361,659,685 4.55%
2021/22 4,536,122,089 4.00%
2022/23 4,830,807,720 6.50%
Total Adjusted Gross Secured and
Unsecured Assessed Value in
Atascadero *
* County of San Luis Obispo Auditor Controller's Office
16
Current Year Supplemental - This property tax is an extra assessment that occurs when
new construction is completed on real property or when a property changes ownership.
The assessed value of the property is then increased to the current market value as of
the date of the title transfer or completion of construction. Supplemental property tax is
the amount due on the difference between the pre-event assessed value and the new
market value of the property. Because there is a time lag between the change of
ownership or completion of construction and the actual change of assessed value to the
tax roll, supplemental property taxes are generally collected six months to a year or more
after the event.
Redevelopment Property Tax Trust Fund (RPTTF) Distributions- This revenue category
was created as a result of the dissolution of Redevelopment in 2012. As part of the
dissolution of redevelopment agencies, all revenues and assets of the former
redevelopment agency that are not needed to pay to the required obligations of the former
agency must be distributed to the taxing agencies. The City of Atascadero is a taxing
agency within the former Atascadero Community Redevelopment Agency and thus is
entitled to approximately 18% of the “excess” revenues and assets.
WHAT IS THE CURRENT STATUS OF PROPERTY TAXES?
Property taxes are a function of assessed value and
assessed value is a function of the base year adjusted
for inflation and/or the fair market value. According to
the San Luis Obispo Auditor Controller’s data,
assessed value of adjusted secured and unsecured
property has increased more than 4% over the prior
year, in each of the last eight fiscal years.
The median home price is the midpoint price of homes
being sold and is therefore a function of both the value
of real estate and number of high-end versus low-end
properties being sold.
The median home price in San Luis Obispo County
has continued to rise since the Great Recession. In
2020/21, the pandemic pushed mortgage rates to
record and near-record lows. Homes were in high
demand not only due to the low interest rates, but also
due to shifts in the work environment. Many
metropolitan-dwelling employees started looking for
houses in rural areas to work remotely as the
pandemic caused remote work environments to
become more mainstream. Supply in the residential
market was limited and with the low mortgage rates,
the prices shot up significantly and most homes sold
quickly and well over the asking price.
For the Month of
October
SLO County Existing
Detached Median
Home Price *
2002 348,684$
2003 401,724
2004 492,372
2005 619,949
2006 568,965
2007 584,302
2008 411,956
2009 379,166
2010 371,740
2011 364,540
2012 395,140
2013 440,380
2014 455,660
2015 526,650
2016 538,500
2017 560,000
2018 586,000
2019 627,000
2020 700,500
2021 800,000
2022 815,000
SLO County Single Family Residence
Median Home Prices *
* California Association of Realtors
17
Interest rates began to rise in early 2022. Even with the rising inflation, salaries didn’t
keep up with the increase in interest rates so buying power became more limited. In
addition, many people with low fixed 30-year mortgages who may have otherwise sold to
upgrade their homes are now waiting because 1) their buying power is reduced due to
both higher interest rates and increased sales prices, and 2) they don’t want to refinance
their great low interest rate loan for the higher rates that are currently available. Sales
volume of homes started to decline in 2022, however the supply of housing continues to
be tight. Therefore, even when interest rates begin to lessen, the increase in buyers will
likely put upward pressure on home prices. Given that tight supply, it is unlikely that
residential real estate will lose value. While 6%+ interest rates are high in the current
environment relative to the 2%-3% rate level during the height of the pandemic, they are
still moderate when compared to a fifty-year history. Rates peaked in the early 1980s at
over 18%! Now those were high interest rates.
WHAT ARE PROPERTY TAX REVENUES EXPECTED TO BE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
YEARS?
Current Secured Property Tax
When projecting out future property tax revenues, staff tried to consider the factors that
go into assessed value: What will the economy and annual inflation look like? What will
the real estate market look like? What is the housing demand? Will Proposition 19 have
a significant impact on assessed values? How much new construction can be expected?
Spurred by pandemic-related stimulus, consumer demand for goods has increased
recently. The heightened demand exceeded the production capacity of the economy.
Amid continued global supply chain challenges, businesses have strained to meet surging
consumer demand. This led to inflation as there was too much disposable income chasing
too few products. Consumer prices have risen 8 percent over the last year, more than
three times the norm of the last three decades. However, buyer behavior hasn’t reacted
to the increase in inflation too drastically, as demand hasn’t correspondingly diminished.
The State Board of Equalization has recently released the inflation factor for the 2023/24
property tax assessments. The California Consumer Price Index (CCPI) is the metric that
determines this factor and it has increased by 7.27%, which is much more than the 2%
Proposition 13 cap. The county of San Luis Obispo, using the maximum assessed value
increase of 2%, along with other additions and changes to the assessed values, is
projecting a 4% countywide increase in current secured assessed values for fiscal year
2023/24. However, commercial and industrial properties continue to experience relatively
more difficulty bouncing back from the impact of the pandemic.
Proposition 19 is expected to have a negative impact on assessed values. Proposition 19
was enacted in late 2021 and allows intergenerational transfers of family homes or farms
between parents and their children without causing a change in ownership for property
tax purposes. A Proposition 19 transfer is an exclusion from the change in ownership
trigger that would otherwise adjust the property to market value. This Proposition will allow
18
homeowners to move across California and bring their lower property tax base with them.
The result of this Proposition will keep assessed values of some properties at levels well
under market value for generations, resulting in lower property tax revenues than would
otherwise be collected.
Beacon Economics’ Winter 2023 The Beacon Outlooks: California indicates that
California’s housing market shows signs of slower sales and is projecting prices will drop
throughout the majority of the year. The report indicates that the decelerating real estate
industry will slow the economy in 2023. However, strong demand for goods will likely
continue to drive the economy in the near future. Beacon Economics goes on to indicate
that because most consumer debt consists of fixed rate mortgage debt, the rise in interest
rates will not cause existing debt to become excessively expensive for most households.
Ultimately, the hike in interest rates will do little to cool consumer demand, and hence do
little to cool inflation. Beacon Economics believes that while inflation has peaked, it is
expected to be higher than normal for the next two or more years.
The State Legislative Analyst’s Office’s (LAO’s) 2023/24 California Fiscal Outlook
indicates that State estimated income tax payments for 2022 are notably weaker than
those from 2021, due in part to falling stock prices. Of the State’s “big three” revenues,
Personal Income Tax is expected to continue to decrease slightly in 2023/24, and then
resume increases in 2024/25. Corporation Tax is expected to increase in 2023/24 and
2024/25, before starting a downward trend in the years following. The LAO estimates that
Sales Tax revenue will decrease slightly in 2023/24 and then continue to increase through
the remainder of their outlook period. The LAO anticipates total overall state revenue
collections are expected to decrease in 2022/23, remain relatively flat in 2023/24 and
2024/25, before growing again in the two years after that. The LAO expects the State will
face a $24 billion budget shortfall in 2023/24 and ongoing deficits.
The Economic Outlook from the California Governor’s Budget Summary (Attachment D)
indicates that economic growth is expected to continue, albeit at a slow pace, through
2024 as high interest rates decrease demand. The Federal Reserve has signaled
ongoing increases to the target federal funds rate in order to return inflation to its long-
term target of around 2 percent, and policy could be tighter than expected if high inflation
persists longer than expected. It goes on to indicate that global unrest could further disrupt
the supply chain. The report notes that California home prices fell in the second half of
2022. If a steeper decline in home prices occurred, it could depress statewide permit
activity more than expected, reducing construction employment and overall economic
activity in the state in the short term.
19
In Atascadero, however, permit and construction activity is the strongest is has been since
the Great Recession. Permit activity is a good indicator of the level of private investment
in the community. There is a substantial number of commercial and residential projects
in the works, and once built out, will increase the assessed valuation in the City. Permit
applications were up 27% in 2022 when compared to 2021.
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Applications Received by Year
A portion of the City’s growth in assessed valuation is due to this significant construction
activity. Atascadero’s assessed valuation will continue to reflect this added value. For
every $1 million that is added in new construction, $10,000 a year is paid to the County
in property tax, and about $1,600-$1,800 of that comes back to Atascadero’s General
Fund.
Housing trends are often difficult to predict because they are influenced by so many of
these factors including income and employment growth, mortgage interest rates,
affordability, savings rates, tax policy and consumer confidence. That being said, the
demand for housing across the State, while slowed, is still strong and statewide rental
rates continue to increase. While some of the factors determining housing values,
demands, and trends conflict, there continues to be an overriding growth in real estate
market values.
When refining property tax for the budget and projecting what the real estate market may
hold, staff will continue to consult with experts.
Assumptions
Assumptions that went into the projected property tax revenues were as follows:
• 2022/23- Assumed that Current Secured, Redevelopment Agency Pass-Through,
and Property Tax in Lieu of Vehicle License Fees are equal to the amounts
estimated by the County Auditor’s Office as of January 2023 (increase of 6.9%.)
Current Year Supplemental revenues are expected to come in slightly above
budgeted levels.
• 2023/24- Assumes that all current secured property tax increases by 4.0% as new
residential and commercial construction comes online. Current Year Supplemental
revenue and Current Unsecured revenue are expected to see some modest
20
growth, reflecting the residential turnover, additions, and new unsecured
purchases. RPTTF will grow slightly with the tax base in the former RDA area.
• 2024/25- Assumes that all current secured property tax increases by 4% as new
residential and commercial construction comes online. Current Year Supplemental
revenue is expected to be fairly flat, and Current Unsecured revenues are
expected to see minimal increases. RPTTF will grow slightly with the tax base in
the former RDA area.
• 2025/26- Assumes a positive inflation factor. Assumes some continued growth
due to new construction. Overall, current secured rolls are increased by 3.5% and
supplemental rolls continue to be flat.
• 2026/27- Assumes a stable growth of 3.5%, and assumes some new commercial
construction will add to the City’s assessed value. As homes sell, supplemental
rolls continue to increase.
• 2027/28- Similar assumptions of prior year, including positive inflation factor of
3.5% and assumes new commercial construction will slightly increase the
assessed value.
• 2028/29- Assumes a 3.7% inflation factor with adjustment for additional
construction and increases in fair market value.
• 2029/30- Assumes a 3.7% inflation factor with adjustment for additional
construction and increases in fair market value.
Sales Tax Revenue
The City of Atascadero currently
receives 30%-35% of its General
Fund revenues from the combination
of Bradley Burns sales tax and
Measure D-20 revenues.
WHAT ARE SALES AND USE
TAXES?
Under the California Sales and Use
Tax Law, the sale of tangible personal
property is subject to sales or use tax
unless exempt or otherwise excluded.
Sales tax is imposed on all retailers
for the privilege of selling tangible
personal property and is measured by
the retailer’s gross receipts. Use tax
is imposed on the purchaser of
tangible personal property from any
retailer for storage, use or other consumption in California. As of March 2023, the City’s
21
sales tax rate is 8.75%. This includes the State’s base sales tax amount of 7.25%, plus
Measure D-20 of 1%, and another 0.5% from Measure F-14. Sales Tax is distributed to
the City by the State in monthly installments which lag significantly behind the period in
which the sales occur.
HOW IS SALES TAX HANDLED ON INTERNET PURCHASES?
Atascadero has seen a revenue boost following the implementation of Assembly Bill 147
(AB 147), which expanded the collection of sales and use taxes from out-of-state sales
via the implementation of the landmark U.S. Supreme Court decision in South Dakota v.
Wayfair (2018).
The Wayfair decision addressed a longstanding problem associated with the rapid growth
of online sales, resulting in the under-collection of billions in local sales and use tax
revenues across the country. Previous court decisions were based on antiquated
catalogue sales disputes that pre-dated the internet and required retailers to have
physical nexus with each state prior to imposing an obligation on an out-of-state retailer
to collect and remit applicable sales and use taxes from customers for remote sales. In
Wayfair, the court reversed those decisions.
AB 147 provides important direction in the law for the implementation of Wayfair in
California. The bill (1) adds “economic nexus” for retailers with sales for delivery in
California that exceed $500,000 to collect and remit sales tax effective April 1, 2019, and
(2) defines a “marketplace facilitator” as the retailer responsible for the collection and
remittance of sales and use taxes effective October 1, 2019. Marketplace facilitators
contract with sellers to sell goods on their on-line platforms. Facilitators generally list
products, process payments, collect receipts, and in some cases, take possession of a
seller’s inventory, hold it in warehouses, and ship it to the customers.
Under the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration rules, the revenue
collected under AB 147 is distributed through state and countywide “pools” in proportion
to the rest of taxable sales within the county. This type of allocation puts Atascadero at
a disadvantage. Without significant brick and mortar retail locations in the City, many
residents either shop in neighboring communities or online for taxable goods. Shopping
outside of city limits lowers Atascadero’s tax base, which in turn lowers the city’s
proportionate share of the pools. The allocation of sales tax revenue to jurisdictions has
long been considered inequitable and not reflective of what is actually occurring.
However, substantive change is difficult and results in winners and losers. In the event
that changes did occur to more accurately reflect the purchases of Atascadero residents,
the additional funds Atascadero received would reduce the funds that other agencies
receive. Often, those agencies with biggest revenues are the current winners and would
end up losing revenues if the rules were changed. They have the most money to fight
change and are highly motivated to do so.
22
WHAT IS THE CURRENT STATUS OF SALES TAX REVENUES?
The City’s sales tax consulting firm, The HdL Companies (HdL), provides information to
the City’s staff periodically to track sales tax revenues. HdL bases their reporting on data
from the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration (CDTFA).
Widespread fear was common as COVID-19 began; fear for personal safety, and fear of
how the economy would survive. The data was surprising. While the pandemic closed
entire sales tax generating industries so vital for governments, expectations were that
sales tax revenue would be drastically reduced across the board. However, the
pandemic-induced unemployment primarily affected lower wage service sector workers
that produced a lesser share of total sales tax revenues. Other, less affected employees
were able to work from home and found they had extra cash due to pandemic-related
stimulus payments, reduced commutes, cancelled travel plans, and few opportunities
overall to spend money due to the stay-at-home orders. Low interest rates and favorable
lending practices allowed that extra money to be spent on previously put off items such
as autos and home improvement. Sales and sales tax revenue continue to rise, although
curbed by increasing inflation, decreasing supplies, and the end of the stimulus funds.
Fuel and service stations
are the largest sector of
Atascadero sales tax,
making up about 18% of the
sales tax revenue. Sales
tax from fuel prices has
historically been very
volatile in California, and
this can have an impact on
revenues. COVID-19
struck the Fuel and Service
Stations industry hard.
People stayed home and
did not travel or participate
in many road trips. This
industry experienced
decreases in fiscal year 19-
20 and again in 20-21.
Fiscal year 21-22 has since
recovered as both unit price and volume sold of fuel are up from COVID level reductions.
23
Second quarter 2022 versus 2021 revenue by industry group is illustrated in the following
graph. It shows how each of Atascadero’s sectors performed during the two-year
comparison period.
Revenue from the state and county pools are now the second largest contributor to the
sales tax base for the City, followed closely by the building and construction industry.
Together, the City’s top three industries, 1) fuel and service stations, 2) state and
countywide pools, and 3) building and construction make up just over half of the City’s
sales tax revenue base.
24
The 13-year history graph by industry below illustrates the changes in each sector. The
increases in pool revenue due to AB 147 is quite significant.
Atascadero has historically had one of the lowest per capita revenues in the County. As
shown on the following graph, the amount that the City earns in sales tax per capita has
improved with the introduction of Measure D-20 revenue, but is still lower than the majority
of cities in the county and is indicative of some of the reasons why the community can’t
sustain the same level of services and amenities as some of our neighbors. Atascadero
receives just under $331 per resident compared with the receipts of San Luis Obispo at
about $937 per resident, almost three times the amount! This is a significant difference
and is important to understand as we continue to address concerns for expansion of City
services.
$330.87 $254.93
$444.64
$257.02
$639.55 $587.36
$936.50
$-
$100.00
$200.00
$300.00
$400.00
$500.00
$600.00
$700.00
$800.00
$900.00
$1,000.00
Atascadero Arroyo Grande Grover Beach Morro Bay Paso Robles Pismo Beach San Luis Obispo
Sales Tax per Capita by City
Adopted Budget FY2022-23
25
Sales tax overall was up 7.8% in fiscal year 2021/22 versus the prior year. AB 147,
COVID-19 recovery, high fuel prices, and strong sales in building and construction helped
to continue to grow sales tax revenues.
WHAT ARE SALES TAX REVENUES EXPECTED TO BE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
YEARS?
Sales tax is arguably the most volatile of the major revenues and is therefore the hardest
to estimate in the Seven Year Projection. When looked at as a whole, sales tax is closely
tied to state and national indicators such as consumer confidence, availability of money,
savings rates, and other trend projections. It can be assumed that a portion of the City’s
sales tax may follow State projected trends.
An important component of making sales tax revenue projections is considering the
unique business mix here in Atascadero and the Central Coast. Valuable questions to
consider are: Which businesses are building? Which are closing? Which sectors are
strong or currently being established in Atascadero? Where are competitors opening?
What are local businesses expecting? What are the trends in businesses here in
Atascadero?
All this information and the ebbs and flows of the City’s historic sales tax revenue can
help to project future revenue. Sometimes the trends can get clouded with inconsistent
data, as what happened with the introduction of the CDTFA’s new reporting software
program that caused numerous timing issues in reporting and payments, the impact of
the pandemic-related shut down and associated repercussions, and the Federal
Reserve’s repetitive rate hikes.
The LAO forecasts a slight decrease in sales tax revenue statewide in fiscal year 2023/24,
before increasing about 3% in each of the remaining years of their forecast.
26
Statewide, HdL expects slow statewide growth in the near term, before returning to more
typical growth rates of 3% - 3.5% in fiscal year 2025/26 through fiscal year 2027/28.
As shown in Attachment C- HdL’s California Forecast – December 2022, HdL is projecting
statewide decreases in 2023/24 in Fuel and Service Stations of -7.7%, increases in pool
allocations of 4.5%, and increases in Building and Construction of 1.0%.
For Atascadero specifically, HdL is projecting fiscal year 2022/23 will end about 1.5%
higher over the prior year. They expect fiscal year 2023/24 will be flat, and then slow, but
steady growth of about 2.5% will resume in fiscal year 2024/25. Consistent with statewide
projections, HdL’s projections for Atascadero in 2023/24 include a drop in revenue from
Fuel and Service Stations at -7.7%, and increase in state and countywide pools of 4.5%,
and an increase in building and construction of 0.6%.
In order to update the sales tax projections for the next few years, staff met with HdL
Companies sales tax experts, looked at projections from the LAOs office, discussed
building trends, and looked at the expected effects of Council’s current economic
development policies and strategies. Over the next few months, staff will continue to
meet with experts and refine sales tax revenue projections.
Current assumptions that went into the projected sales tax revenues were as follows:
• 2022/23- Assumes strength in some of the city’s sales tax sectors, with an increase
of 1.5% overall.
• 2023/24- Assumes tentative consumer confidence, inflation, and limited consumer
supplies. Estimates revenues are essentially flat.
27
• 2024/25- Assumes more stabilization and recovery in economy and 2.3% growth.
• 2025/26- Assumes continuing underlying growth of 3%, spurred by Atascadero’s
economic development efforts.
• 2026/27- Assumes continuing underlying growth of 3%, spurred by Atascadero’s
economic development efforts.
• 2027/28- Assumes continuing underlying growth of 3%, spurred by Atascadero’s
economic development efforts.
• 2028/29- Assumes continuing underlying growth of 3%, spurred by Atascadero’s
economic development efforts.
• 2029/30- Assumes continuing underlying growth of 3%, spurred by Atascadero’s
economic development efforts.
The Sales Tax revenue projections graph on the next page shows the revenues since
fiscal year 1996/97. The first quarter of Measure D-20 was collected and included in fiscal
year 2020/21 below. Fiscal year 2021/22 was the first full year of collections of Measure
D-20, and is evident by the large increase in that year.
As with all projections, these assumptions are based on the information, policies and
actions that are in place today. Changes in Council or State policies and/or additional
information could and should adjust these projections. Staff will continue to monitor and
update projections as things evolve.
28
Other Revenue
Property tax and sales tax account for about 60%-70% of the City’s General Fund
revenues, however there are a couple of other significant revenues that should be
discussed.
Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT)
TOT is collected from guests staying at hotels within the City. Revenues were steadily
trending up through February 2020, but then began to decline in March 2020 due to impacts
of COVID-19. As restrictions began to loosen, revenue picked up again in fiscal year
2020/21, where it came back up to 2018/19 levels. In fiscal year 2021/22, TOT revenue
broke the two-million-dollar mark for the first time ever and ended the year at $2,049,160,
or 48% over the prior (COVID impacted) year.
HdL expects the Restaurant and Hotel industry to increase 8.6% statewide in fiscal year
2022/23, as compared to the prior year, and expects an increase of 2.5% for 2023/24. In
Atascadero, the projection is a 6.1% increase in 2022/23, and 1.2% increase in 2023/24,
and 4.0% in 2024/25. In their California Consensus Forecast for December 2022, HdL
notes leisure travel remains strong. Demand for experiences has been high. Ever-
increasing prices are pushing hotels and leisure outlets to post strong gains.
Below is HdL’s most recent statewide quarterly forecast for the restaurant and hotel
sector.
According to Visit California, the statewide occupancy rate in January 2023 was 57%, up
10% over the prior year. Tourism spending in California is on course to reach $154.4
billion in 2023, 107% of the 2019 amount. The average statewide daily rate was $181 in
January 2023, which was a 10% year-over-year increase. This higher average daily rate
helped to offset some of that continued weakness in the occupancy levels.
29
Visit California forecasts that travel-related spending from domestic visitors is expected
to recover to 113% of 2019 levels in 2023, while international travel into California will
continue to recover from COVID impacts for the remainder of 2023. Canadian and
Mexican visitors will lead the trend, with almost complete recovery to pre-COVID
spending levels. Overall, leisure travel (person trips) should recover to 100% of 2019
volume in 2023, while business-related travel will recover to 88%.
Intergovernmental Revenues
In fiscal year 2021/22, the City’s received the first of two payments from the Federal
government under the American Rescue Plan Act, Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal
Recovery Funds, for additional financial relief in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The City received the first payment of $3,597,290 in July 2021. Funds may be used for
specific purposes as designated in the US Department of Treasury’s Final Rule. The Final
Rule offers a standard allowance for revenue loss of up to $10 million. Recipients, such
as Atascadero, that select the standard allowance may use the funds for general
government services. The second of the two payments was received in July 2022.
Franchise Fees
The City receives around $1.3 million a year from franchise fees. These are a tax charged
on cable, electric, garbage disposal, gas, wastewater, recycling and the local landfill.
These fees are based on the revenues collected by each of the entities charged. These
revenues have remained fairly flat over the years. However, significant increases in
natural gas and electricity are expected to prompt higher franchise revenues.
Building Permit Activity
Atascadero has seen significant building activity increases in recent years. In 2022, staff
issued a record number of building permits, 1,798 in total. That is a 32% increase over
the prior year. Some of this increase may have been associated with the update in the
building code that went into effect January 1, 2023.Some large projects are in various
stages of development including multiples projects in the area of Del Rio and El Camino
Real, Barrel Creek, California Manor, Emerald Ridge, Dove Creek, and Woods Humane
Society expansion.
1335
1125
793
487 467
624 612 698
868
1040 1095
1295
1180 1131
1206 1166
1362
1798
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Building Permits
30
Building permit activity in Atascadero has typically been relatively volatile, reflecting the
real estate ebbs and flows that occurred nationally. In 2005, the City received 1,335
building permit applications and issued permits for 330 housing units. By 2009, overall
permit activity dropped to 467 permits with only 12 housing permits issued. In 2016,
building permit activity increased to a level that was only just slightly below the pre-real
estate boom in 2005. Of the 1,798 permits issued in 2022, 76 were for new residential
units.
Other Fees for Service
The City typically receives $2-$3 million a year in various fees for other services (including
mutual aid). These fees include many items such as development services, zoo
admissions, pavilion rentals, softball field rental fees, park rental charges, weed
abatement charges, and vehicle release fees. The closures due to the pandemic reduced
or shut down many of the programs impacting this category, but most have largely
recovered since then. The Zoo, in particular, has seen a positive resurgence since the
pandemic-related closures. Zoo revenues (admissions, education, special events, and
gift shop) were up 9% in fiscal year 2021/22, and up a whopping 87% over the pre-COVID
fiscal year 2018/19.
A Service Fee Study was performed and services fees were updated in the summer of
2022 to better reflect current costs. Smaller scaled reviews and adjustment are made to
the Service Fee Schedule annually to adjust for changes in the consumer price indexed
inflation.
Interfund Revenues
The 2021/22 audited financial statements included $1.3 million in interfund revenues.
These are typically charges to other funds and departments within the city for services
provided by the General Fund (such as legal, finance, capital project management, grant
administration, affordable housing services, etc.). Staff has found it more efficient to
allocate these charges out as Administrative Fees rather than charging a small portion of
each support employee’s time or a portion of each invoice to each fund directly.
Summary
The overall revenue projections show a slow but steady climb in revenues over the next
seven years. The Sales Tax Measure D-20 – Essential Services Tax will add additional
revenue to the General Fund.
31
Atascadero
Comprehensive Financial Strategy
April 2023
Section 3- Operating Costs
32
Operating Costs
A healthy organization needs to review inflows (revenues) and outflows (expenses) on a
regular basis in order to achieve balance over the long-run. Certainly, the Council has
successfully navigated this balanced path over the years by holding to the fiscal
strategy of saving up a little extra in the good years to use in the down years. Just as
the City began recovery from the effect of the Great Recession, rising pension costs
and other costs continued to limit the City’s ability to increase operating budgets to the
level they needed to be. Expense reductions were made over the last decade or so to
artificially low levels in order to better balance the inflow and outflow equation. Funding
from Measure D-20 is providing some needed relief toward better funding for necessary
and existing services, but it will most certainly not be enough to provide all of the
services, programs, and amenities that people might desire. It is important to set clear
priorities on which items need to be addressed first.
Ongoing operating costs are typically the bulk of the outflow side of the equation. Given
the City’s relative lack of direct control of the inflow side of the equation (property tax,
sales tax, TOT, development revenue), operating costs are an area where the City has
more control to determine its own fate.
Operating costs are typically broken into four different categories in the budget
document, some are ongoing and some are one-time expenditures:
• Employee Services (ongoing)
• Operations (ongoing)
• Special Programs & Projects (usually one-time)
• Capital Projects (usually one-time)
Each of these categories will be defined in this section, and assumptions of the
projected costs of each of these will be reviewed. The effective growth management of
these categories is what helps the City to influence the bottom line.
33
EMPLOYEE SERVICES
WHAT ARE EMPLOYEE SERVICES COSTS?
Employee services are the backbone of
the community. The City is a service
organization, so the largest portion of
General Fund expenditures is
dedicated to employee services. In
fact, an average of 65% of General
Fund expenditures for the budget cycle
2021-2023 were allocated directly
toward the cost of employee services. It
is critical that the significance of this
component to the budget is well
understood since it plays such a major
role.
Employees are grouped into six different categories or bargaining units. (Atascadero
Police Association, Atascadero Firefighters Bargaining Unit, Local 620 Service
Employees International Union, Mid Management / Professional Employees, Non-
Represented Professional and Management Workers and Confidential Employees, and
Non-Represented Part-time employees.) Salaries and benefits for each of the four
represented bargaining units are set forth in Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs).
Pay and benefits for Management and Confidential employees are governed by a
resolution of the Council and pay for part-time employees are governed by
administrative policy.
The following are the general categories of labor costs that are found in the City’s
budget:
• Salaries- This base pay figure for full-time City employees represents 53% of the
City’s total General Fund labor costs.
• Wages- This is the pay for part-time or hourly employees such as scorekeepers,
recreation workers and fire reserves. (2%)
• Overtime- This represents the amount paid in overtime to both full-time and part-
time personnel. (4%)
• Other Pay- This category includes amounts paid to employees for items other
than base pay. Items charged to this category include stand-by pay, holiday pay-
off, uniform allowance, pay-off of vacation upon leaving the City and other similar
pay types. (2%)
• Benefits, Taxes and Insurance- This category is made up of the following:
o Health Benefits- Each full-time employee receives health benefits upon
employment. The City contributes varying amounts towards medical
insurance, dental insurance, vision insurance and life insurance. The amounts
Employee
Services
65%
Operations
25%
Capital and
Special
Projects
10%
Average Expenditures by Category
2021-2023
34
vary between bargaining units and whether coverage is for the employee
only, the employee plus one dependent or for the employee and his/her
family. Employees who were hired prior to September 1, 2000 are entitled to
a “medical payback” stipend if they elect employee only coverage. The
stipends range from $240.56 - $319.53 per month. Current MOUs require the
City to pick up 100% of the increased health benefits cost for the employee
and 50% of the increased cost for dependents annually. (13%)
o Retirement- The City and City employees do not contribute to Social
Security and are therefore required to participate in another retirement
program. For part-time employees who work less than 1,000 hours per year,
the City contributes 2.5% to a FICA Substitute / Defined Contribution plan.
For full-time employees and part-time employees who work more than 1,000
hours a year, the City participates in CalPERS. The City is now on a three-
tiered system for both sworn safety personnel and miscellaneous (non-sworn
personnel) as discussed later in this Section. This is a defined benefit plan
which means that the City is guaranteeing the benefit that the employee will
receive upon retirement (in the case of tier 1 sworn personnel, 3% of the
highest year’s salary for each year of service the employee has upon
retirement at age 50 or older). Contribution rates for this benefit change
annually based on actuarial studies performed by CalPERS. (22%)
o Medicare- The City contributes 1.45% of pay to Medicare. (1%)
o Workers Compensation- The City participates in California Joint Powers
Insurance Agency (CJPIA) for workers compensation coverage. Cost of
workers’ compensation coverage is a formula based on payroll, the City’s loss
experience and the overall loss experience of CJPIA. (2%)
o Unemployment- the City is self-insured for unemployment through the
Employment Development Department (EDD). The EDD bills the City
quarterly for actual unemployment benefits paid to former employees.
(0.25%)
o Other Benefits- There are other minor benefits afforded to employees such as
the education reimbursement program, deferred compensation match, and
long-term disability. (1.25%)
Payroll is not just a function of salary and benefit amounts, but is also a function of the
number of employees. The current budget includes funding for 137 full-time employees,
up from 130 in fiscal year 2020/21. With a few exceptions, part-time employees are
budgeted with a lump sum dollar amount, rather than the number of employees. In
fiscal year 2021/22, 58 part-time employees worked almost 30,000 hours or the
equivalent of about 14 full-time employees. Prior to COVID, the City typically used
about 81 part-time employees working over 39,000 hours per year, equal to almost 19
full-time equivalents.
35
WHAT IS THE CURRENT STATUS OF EMPLOYEE SERVICES?
Staffing Levels
There is no group of people that can do more with less than the City staff here in
Atascadero. Of course, budgets have always been lean, but starting with the 2009-
2011 budget cycle, lean took on a whole new meaning. With the loss of fifteen laid off
positions (seven of which were vacant at the time), the remaining staff did their best to
carry the load. During the 2011-2013 and 2013-2015 budget cycles, a continuing policy
of “hiring chills” was also in place. This was a process where management evaluated
each position that became empty due to attrition to determine if that position was a
priority in the short run.
While this staffing policy kept costs to a minimum, it also caused staffing levels to be
deficient in all departments. With the improvement in the economy, however, the City
was able to add six full-time staff members during the 2015-2017 budget cycle. The
City also added one full-time staff member during the 2017-2019 budget cycle, and then
four more in 2019-2021. With the addition of Measure D-20 funds, seven positions
were able to be added to budgeted positions: five police officers, one public safety
dispatcher, and one fire battalion chief. This certainly provided some needed relief and
is a significant movement in the right direction. However, the City continues to lag
behind other local jurisdictions when it comes to staffing level metrics.
Per capita staffing for both police officers and fire fighters is low compared to
surrounding cities, making it difficult to effectively staff these 24/7 operations without
using excessive overtime. This situation becomes even more difficult when employees
are out on vacation, are sick, or have been injured on the job.
The two charts below show the 2022/23 budgeted staffing levels per capita for police
officers and fire fighters in Atascadero compared to other local cities:
- 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00
Atascadero
San Luis Obispo
Morro Bay
Paso Robles
Police Officers per 1,000 Residents
36
The Police Department is a good example of the challenges associated with limited
staffing levels. The Department was established in 1980 with 19 sworn officers serving
16,232 residents. The department grew commensurate with the population through the
80s and early 90s. In 1994, the Department reached 29 sworn officers to keep pace
with 23,982 residents. The Department peaked at 30 officers in the early 2000’s;
however, three sworn positions were lost during the great recession in 2007 to 2009.
The current population of Atascadero is estimated at 30,480 and the Atascadero Police
Department has just three more officers than it did in the early 2000s - 33 sworn officer
positions.
The Department is experiencing increased calls associated with the population growth
along with concerns in the community including opioid epidemic and an influx of
homeless related calls for service. Along with these calls, there are mental health
problems associated with these issues. Communities across California, including
Atascadero, are also suffering the unintended consequences of the recent trend to
decriminalize narcotics and other crimes. In 2011, Assembly Bill 109 shifted much of the
prison population to county jails, which were not designed or equipped for this function
and quickly caused the jails to be became overcrowded. Proposition 47 in 2014 reduced
certain theft and drug offenses from felonies to misdemeanors and Proposition 57 in 2016
allowed parole consideration instead of incarceration for nonviolent offenders, which all
combined has resulted in a substantial increase in offenders released without
incarceration. This has, and will continue to, leave more offenders in the community and
increase criminal activity in Atascadero.
Combine this with other recent requirements, such as the new reporting standards
which have increased the amount of reports officers are required to take, the change in
medical clearance and procedures for mental health detentions, county jail bookings,
and increased training standards all result in task saturated officers that spend less time
on patrol. This directly impacts officers’ availability to respond to calls for service and
increase response times.
Although this narrative has focused on the police department’s staffing shortages, every
department in the City is understaffed. When compared to other communities of our
size, the staffing history and numbers for Planning, Public Works, Finance, and
Administration are all similar to those in the Police Department. This affects staff’s
ability to provide the expected level of City services across the board.
- 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40
Atascadero
San Luis Obispo
Morro Bay
Paso Robles
Fire Fighters per 1,000 Residents
37
Employee Retention
The City has been able to stay within its financial constraints with the cooperation of its
employees. The employees are used to doing more with less and this often carries over
into salaries and wages. There is significant competition from other agencies whom are
able to offer more generous salaries than Atascadero is able to. The market for labor is
tight and employers are competing. With one of the historically lowest per capita
revenue cities in the county, Atascadero has always had a difficult time offering salaries
that are on par with other agencies. Below are the current comparisons to other
jurisdictions for top step police officer and sergeant positions:
Officer Sergeant
City of San Luis Obispo 9,880$ 11,960$
City of Paso Robles 9,116$ 11,480$
City of Grover Beach 8,540$ 10,624$
City of Pismo Beach 8,247$ 10,821$
City of Atascadero 7,932$ 10,162$
City of Morro Bay 7,785$ 9,981$
City of Arroyo Grande 7,435$ 9,516$
Jurisdiction Monthly Salary
While there are some differences in benefit packages between jurisdictions, the City is
consistently amongst the lowest total compensation for most positions at the City.
While compensation is often not the only reason an employee chooses to work for an
employer, when there are significant differences in pay, it is an important consideration.
Because the cost of living is high in the Central Coast area, and neighboring
jurisdictions are able to pay more, the City’s low wages are often a barrier to attracting,
hiring and most importantly, retaining, professional employees. This has a large effect
on City operations as vacancies lead to even lower staffing levels, inefficiencies,
additional incurred costs as new employees are trained, and losses of institutional
knowledge when key employees leave.
Measure D-20 made large strides toward enhancing staff salaries and helping to bring
them into better alignment with other agencies. However, at the same time that
Atascadero voters passed Measure D-20, voters in other cities passed similar
measures. Those other agencies were able to use their new sales tax measure
revenues toward increasing salaries at their agencies. The labor market is a dynamic
environment, and while strides forward definitely help Atascadero from falling further
behind, they don’t necessarily put us near the head of the pack as neighboring agencies
continue to sharpen their competitive edge as well.
38
Minimum Wage
California’s minimum wage has seen significant increases in recent years, and has
increase to $15.50 per hour. This continues to impact City operations. Since the
budgeted amounts allocated to part-time employees are based on a lump sum dollar
amount versus hourly rates times the number of expected hours, the increases in hourly
wages have affected how many hours the lump sum budget will buy, or alternatively, the
lump sum amount will require increases in order to provide the same number of staff
hours at a higher hourly rate. Increases are difficult due to the limited resources the
City has to work with. This will impact the City’s ability to hire part-time staff to provide
City services. Many of the part-time employees work in recreation-related activities
where additional recovery of costs may not be the best option.
CalPERS Retirement
The City is enrolled in CalPERS to provide employees fixed benefit retirement plans. In
2012, the Council adopted pension reform that separates the City’s retirement benefits
into three different tiers: 1) existing employees, 2) employees hired after 7/14/12, but
already part of CalPERS, and 3) employees hired after 1/1/13 not previously part of
CalPERS. Each tier has a related formula that is used to calculate future benefits.
These changes to retirement plans are consistent with the California Public Employees’
Pension Reform Act (PEPRA).
Details of each of the tiers for Safety and Miscellaneous are in the following tables:
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3
Employees Affected Existing employees PERS members hired after
7/14/12
Non-PERS members hired
after 1/1/13
Formula 2.5% @ 55 2.0% @ 55 2% @ 62
Contribution 4.7% of employee
contribution rate
4.7% of employee
contribution rate
6.5% of employee
contribution rate
Salary Factor single highest year
compensation
3 year average
compensation
3 year average
compensation
Miscellaneous
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3
Employees Affected Existing employees PERS members hired after
7/14/12
Non-PERS members hired
after 1/1/13
Formula 3% @ 50 3% @ 55 2.7% @ 57
Contribution 9.0% of employee
contribution rate
9.0% of employee
contribution rate
11.5% of employee
contribution rate
Salary Factor single highest year
compensation
3 year average
compensation
3 year average
compensation
Safety
39
The calculation of the pension costs is a complicated actuarial process and involves a
number of different assumptions and strategies. CalPERS Board of Administration
(Board) authorizes changes to the assumptions and structural changes to risk pooling
as they see appropriate to ensure the program remains properly funded. A number of
changes have occurred in recent years that affect the City’s pension costs including a
change in the smoothing policy, changes to the risk pools, changes to the method of
allocating the pool’s unfunded liability, retiree life expectancy assumptions, investment
impacts due to the state of the economy, and actual investment rates differing from
assumed earnings rates.
The City has two components to the CalPERS annual contributions. The first is the
“normal rate”, or the cost of pension benefits for one year. CalPERS’ actuaries
determine what the normal cost percentage is for each employer, and the employer
pays an amount throughout the year equal to the percentage multiplied by the
applicable payroll. The second component is a flat dollar amount known as the
Unfunded Accrued Liability, or UAL. The UAL is also determined by CalPERS actuaries
and the City pays it as a flat dollar amount at the beginning of the fiscal year.
In December 2016, the CalPERS Board voted to change the discount rate from 7.5% to
7.0%, and the impact of this change was spread over a three-year period. The discount
rate is the assumed rate of return on investments, or essentially, interest earnings.
Decreasing the rate means the Board assumes that CalPERS will earn less interest
income on its investments each year. As the discount rate is decreased, employers like
Atascadero typically see large increases in the costs required to fund the retirement
plans.
In July 2021, a strong 21% fiscal year (2020/21) investment return automatically
triggered a discount rate reduction to 6.8% under CalPERS’s Funding Risk Mitigation
Policy. This Mitigation Policy was adopted by the CalPERS Board in 2015 and is
triggered when investment returns during the fiscal year exceed the current target rate
of return by 2 or more percentage points. When this happens, the discount rate for the
Public Employees’ Retirement Fund (PERF) is automatically lowered by an amount
commensurate with the excess returns. The higher the excess returns, the more the
discount rate drops. The maximum amount the discount rate can be reduced in any one
year is 0.25% (25 basis points).
The positive returns earned from fiscal year 2020/21 helped increase PERF assets, and
the overall funding status was estimated at 82%. However, the reduction in the discount
rate to 6.8% dropped the funding status to 80%. While the better-than-expected positive
investments returns will help to decrease future City contribution rates, the reduction in
the discount rate will increase City contributions in the future.
In fiscal year 2021/22, CalPERS’ investment return was negative 6.1%. Between the
drop of the discount rate to 6.8% in 2021 and the fiscal year 2021/22 negative return,
the overall funded status of the PERF dropped to 72%. These two items will offset the
positive impact to the City’s contribution rates due to CalPERS’ positive earnings from
fiscal year 2020/21.
40
The City’s normal rate (excluding any City-paid employee portion) and the annual UAL
for each tier for both the Miscellaneous and Safety Pools are listed in the following
charts.
21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/30
Tier 1 - normal rate 12.99%13.02%14.92%14.90%14.90%14.90%14.90%14.90%14.90%
Tier 2 - normal rate 11.06%11.06%12.63%12.60%12.60%12.60%12.60%12.60%12.60%
Tier 3 - normal rate 7.73%7.76%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%
Tier 1 -UAL 1,098,400$ 1,239,825$ 1,043,388$ 1,035,000$ 995,000$ 952,000$ 890,000$ 924,000$ 924,000$
Tier 2 - UAL 9,240$ 9,558$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Tier 3 - UAL 50,630$ 52,189$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 24/25 25/26 26/27
Tier 1 - normal rate 23.71%23.75%27.11%27.10%27.10%27.10%27.10%27.10%27.10%
Tier 2 - normal rate 20.64%20.64%22.83%22.80%22.80%22.80%22.80%22.80%22.80%
Tier 3 - normal rate 13.13%12.78%13.54%13.50%13.50%13.50%13.50%13.50%13.50%
Tier 1 -UAL 1,516,603$ 1,704,066$ 1,684,329$ 1,679,000$ 1,251,000$ 1,192,000$ 1,109,000$ 1,152,000$ 1,152,000$
Tier 2 - UAL 7,914$ 8,457$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Tier 3 - UAL 26,210$ 27,275$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
Miscellaneous
Safety
Vacation accruals
Vacation accruals are another issue to consider. Details on vacation and other leave
accruals are discussed at length in Section 4 of this document. At this point, it is critical
to simply understand that as employees utilize more of their vacation time, there are
less people to accomplish the tasks for the vacationing employees. While in some
cases the work could be delayed, in most cases, the work still has to get done on
schedule and/or works shifts have to be covered. At the end of the day, what this really
translates into is additional overtime costs. Overtime is an unavoidable component of
spending down the vacation accrual.
Health Care
The City has been on the offense regarding health care costs. Health care benefits are
important to the well-being of the employee group. As health care costs continue to be
on the rise, the City continues to search for efficient options to meet the employees’
health care needs. The health care cost trend increases in California have averaged
about 8% over the last five years. The City’s costs increases have averaged 5.5% over
the last five years. This average is unusually low due to a highly atypical zero percent
increase for calendar year 2023. Increases in future years are expected to be
approximately 7% per year, consistent with market trends.
WHAT ARE EMPLOYEE SERVICE COSTS EXPECTED TO BE FOR THE NEXT
SEVEN YEARS?
In order to project labor costs, a spreadsheet was developed which details salary and
benefits for each employee. Every employee’s expected labor costs were developed for
each of the seven years. Step increases and other expected pay changes as an
employee moves through his/her career were built into the projections.
41
The projections include a cost of living salary increase for the first fiscal year, 2023/24,
based on the current negotiated Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) and very
modest increases in the remaining years. A
one percent cost of living salary increase for
the current employees would amount to
about $164,000 of additional ongoing costs
annually. This is not to say that staff is
recommending a policy of no salary
increases for the next seven years. Instead,
these projections are intended to illustrate
that labor costs will continue to need to be a
function of available funding and the market.
Currently, the existing Memorandums of
Understand with all employee groups expire at the end of fiscal year 2023/24.
Assumptions that went into the projected employee service costs were as follows:
• 2022/23- Assumes that current employees remain in place, step increases are
given to eligible employees, and cost of living salary increases are consistent
with current Memorandums of Understanding. No increases were included for
the part-time staff. Assumes no medical insurance costs increase, workers
compensation increases of 20%, unemployment rates remain flat, CalPERS
rates are 7.7%-13% for non-sworn employees and 12.8%-23.8% for sworn safety
employees, and UAL payment of $3.04 million (CalPERS actuarially determined
rates). CalPERS rates for vacant positions are assumed to be Tier 3 for most
positions.
• 2023/24- Assumes that current employees remain in place, step increases are
given to eligible employees, and there are minimal cost of living salary increases
for full- and part-time staff. Assumes medical insurance costs increase by 7%,
workers compensation increases 5%, unemployment rates remain flat, CalPERS
rates are 8%-14.9% for non-sworn employees and 13.5%-27.1% for sworn safety
employees, and UAL payment of $2.72 million (CalPERS actuarially determined
rates). CalPERS rates for vacant positions are assumed to be Tier 3 for most
positions.
• 2024/25- Assumes that current employees remain in place, step increases are
given to eligible employees, and there are minimal cost of living salary increases
for full- and part-time staff. Assumes medical insurance costs increase by 7%,
workers compensation increases 5%, unemployment rates remain flat, CalPERS
rates are 8%-14.9% for non-sworn employees and 13.5%-27.1% for sworn safety
employees, and UAL payment of $2.71 million.
• 2025/26- Assumes that current employees remain in place, step increases are
given to eligible employees, and there are minimal cost of living salary increases
for full- and part-time staff. Assumes medical insurance costs increase by 7%,
workers compensation increases 5%, unemployment rates remain flat, CalPERS
rates are 8%-14.9% for non-sworn employees and 13.5%-27.1% for sworn safety
employees, and UAL payment of $2.25 million.
Cost of 1%
Police 52,600$
Fire 29,800
SEIU 37,200
Mid Management 3,500
Management and Confidential 40,700
Total 163,800$
Annual Cost of 1% Salary Increase
Fiscal Year 2023/24
42
• 2026/27- Assumes that current employees remain in place, step increases are
given to eligible employees, and there are minimal cost of living salary increases
for full- and part-time staff. Assumes medical insurance costs increase by 7%,
workers compensation increases 5%, unemployment rates remain flat, CalPERS
rates are 8%-14.9% for non-sworn employees and 13.5%-27.1% for sworn safety
employees, and UAL payment of $2.14 million.
• 2027/28- Assumes that current employees remain in place, step increases are
given to eligible employees, and there are minimal cost of living salary increases
for full- and part-time staff. Assumes medical insurance costs increase by 7%,
workers compensation increases 3%, unemployment rates remain flat, CalPERS
rates are 8%-14.9% for non-sworn employees and 13.5%-27.1% for sworn safety
employees, and UAL payment of $2.0 million.
• 2028/29- Assumes that current employees remain in place, step increases are
given to eligible employees, and there are minimal cost of living salary increases
for full- and part-time staff. Assumes medical insurance costs increase by 7%,
workers compensation increases 3%, unemployment rates remain flat, CalPERS
rates are 8%-14.9% for non-sworn employees and 13.5%-27.1% for sworn safety
employees, and UAL payment of $2.1 million.
• 2029/30- Assumes that current employees remain in place, step increases are
given to eligible employees, and there are minimal cost of living salary increases
for full- and part-time staff. Assumes medical insurance costs increase by 7%,
workers compensation increases 3%, unemployment rates remain flat, CalPERS
rates are 8%-14.9% for non-sworn employees and 13.5%-27.1% for sworn safety
employees, and UAL payment of $2.1 million.
43
OPERATIONS COSTS
WHAT ARE OPERATIONS COSTS?
Operations costs are expenditures related to the regular ongoing operation of the
department, including supplies, tools, utilities, insurance, contract services, and other
similar expenditures.
Each year as the budget is being prepared, a target is established for the operations
category. Even with some expenses increasing at rapid rates, departments were asked
to target either very minimal increases or even some decreases in each of the last ten
budget cycles. These minor escalations (and the reductions) in operations were
effective in closing the deficit gaps in the tight years to an amount that was consistent
with Council’s strategic plan. Certainly, these cuts were not easy, but in the short term
were achievable. As the cost of doing business continues to rise, additional increases
will be needed to sustain service levels in the long-run. Targeted operating cost
increases averaged 1% per budget cycle for the last ten cycles (or twenty years).
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation increased about 64% during
that same twenty-year period.
These operating budgets were exceptionally tight with the understanding that the
reductions were a temporary solution. Atascadero employees continue to work hard at
keeping costs down and are always looking for better and more cost-effective ways to
get things done. There are, however, a few areas of particular concern as the 2023-
2025 budget cycle approaches:
• Utilities – The cost of utilities such as electricity, natural gas, and water have
been increasing over recent years, but there have been even steeper increases
in electricity and natural gas over the last 6-8 months. Electricity is expected to
increase as much as another 25%-30% during this cycle. These increase affects
all of the City’s facilities.
• Automotive Fuel - The cost of fuel for the City’s fleet has gone up over 30% in the
last five fiscal years.
• Janitorial and Other Services – Labor services, such as janitorial services, have
been increasing as well. The City has seen an increase of over 25% just in the
last few budget cycles.
• Insurance – Liability, property, pollution and crime insurance costs have gone up
over 50% since 2017/18. Costs are expected to continue to grow into the next
budget cycle. Property insurance will increase 21% from fiscal year 2022/23 to
2023/24.
• Other Underfunded Operating Costs – There are a number of other costs in the
operational budgets that have been outpacing the operational budget increases.
Continued increases are being seen in medical supplies, recycled paper
products, zoo animal diets, and computer software licenses and maintenance
agreements.
44
• Issues Related to Transients and Homelessness - The human impact of the
homeless crisis is tragic. While not as visible, there is also a very real impact to
government services and in particular, local services, as cities that were never
designed, nor funded to provide social services and deal with the inherent
conflicts and problems of people living on the streets. It is important that we
point out that staff are not classifying individuals because of their housing status.
The reference is to those people who are engaged in behavior that precipitates a
call for service for public safety or other City resources.
The illegal camps that exist throughout the City have a significant impact on the
environment and the general quality of life for the neighborhoods. The creeks,
rivers, underpasses and other areas of encampment were never designed to be
someone’s home. The homeless crisis/addiction issues have led people to
establish camps where there are no sanitary services, no heat, no water and
other basic necessities for life. The camps contain a large amount of trash and
personal refuse. Legally, notices must be posted at the camps before cleanup
and property removed must be retained for a substantial period of time before
disposal. Clean-up of these camps is also a fairly time-consuming job as clean-
up workers must be extremely cautious as dirty needles and other bio hazards
are often found amongst the camp debris. The workload involved in the
cleanups and debris removal must be balanced with the workload and primary
responsibilities of a Public Works Department that is stretched too thin to
maintain the 106 acres of parks, the 140 miles of streets and the many City
facilities that are the responsibility of the personnel. The existing budget includes
some funding for camp clean-up, but this will be a continued area to address in
the 2023-2025 budget cycle.
• Regulations – While state and federal regulating agencies have good intentions
with their various programs, compliance becomes more burdensome and costly
with each new regulation. The Air Pollution Control District, the Regional Water
Quality Control Board, the National Fire Protection Association, Occupational
Safety and Health Administration and other similar agencies have specific
requirements that the City must meet. Programs such as the Short-Lived
Climate Pollutant Reduction Strategy (AB 1383), Storm Water Management Plan,
the Storm Water Trash Amendment, Groundwater Monitoring, the National
Pollutant Discharge Elimination System, and the Federal Highway
Administration’s Retro-Reflectivity are just a few of the many regulations that
affect the City and its budget. There are also additional requirements of the
Public Safety departments, such as the new Police Department reporting
standards, changes in medical clearance and procedures for mental health
detentions and county jail bookings, increased training standards, and radio
system/security protocol changes. The trend is toward greater regulation in a
number of different areas which increases City costs for permits, monitoring,
equipment replacement, training, and compliance.
• 2023 Storm Response Costs – In January and March of 2023, the State of
California experienced a series of severe storms caused by atmospheric river
systems that produced significant damage throughout the state. The City
45
sustained damages to roads, creeks, parks, buildings and other public
infrastructure. The City declared a local emergencies in January, and again in
March. Estimates of the damage caused by these storms are still being
determined. The City has performed (and continues to perform) emergency
repair and cleanup work at considerable cost. The City has filed a property
insurance claim and will actively pursue all avenues for reimbursement for storm
repairs. The Governor of California and the President of the United States
declared a state of emergency in January 2023, and then again in March 2023,
which qualifies the City to seek reimbursement from FEMA and Cal OES for
storm related damages. The City’s goal is to achieve full cost recovery for all
damage repairs, but ultimately, it is the City’s financial responsibility to repair and
restore the affected public areas, regardless of reimbursement funding.
WHAT ARE OPERATIONS COSTS EXPECTED TO BE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
YEARS?
The projections assume a target increase of 4% in 2023/24 and 2% in 2024/25. The
Seven Year Projection assumes modest increases of 2% in operations costs in the
outer five years. This assumes a continued focus on keeping costs lean, smart, and
effective, but also understanding the reality that costs are, and will continue to, increase.
46
SPECIAL PROJECTS AND PROGRAMS COSTS
WHAT ARE SPECIAL PROJECTS AND PROGRAMS COSTS?
Special Projects and Programs are costs that are either atypical expenses or other
projects or programs that are not part of the City’s regular operations. Included in this
category are items such as minor equipment, studies, intangible assets, community
programs, and infrequent repairs or maintenance.
WHAT ARE SPECIAL PROJECTS AND PROGRAMS COSTS EXPECTED TO BE FOR
THE NEXT SEVEN YEARS?
The Seven Year Projection assumes $100,000 annually in special project costs
throughout the lookout period. Also included in this section for fiscal year 2023/24 is
$500,000 for the Restaurant Loan Program, and $1,000,000 for the Broadband
Enhancement Project.
CAPITAL PROJECTS COSTS
WHAT ARE CAPITAL PROJECTS COSTS?
Capital Projects costs are expenditures for new capital equipment with a life in excess
of one year and costing over $2,500, and capital improvement projects. Capital
purchases are included in the budget only after supplemental budget requests
effectively identify and justify the need for such a purchase. Historically, many capital
expenditures have been minimized in order to keep costs down. Measure D-20 has
made it possible to begin replacement of some of the City’s assets and equipment. Staff
will continue to pursue grants and effectively use donations when available for the
purchase of these and other items as well.
WHAT ARE CAPITAL PROJECTS COSTS EXPECTED TO BE FOR THE NEXT
SEVEN YEARS?
The Seven Year Projection assumes a flat $200,000 each year to cover anticipated
capital projects and expenses. Also included in the fiscal year 2023/24 is $1,000,000
for the replacement of Fire Station #1/Public Safety Center and $3,000,000 for the
Downtown Infrastructure Enhancement Project. Fiscal years 2024/25 through fiscal
year 2029/30 include $1,500,000 annually as a place holder for debt service for Fire
Station #1/Public Safety Center replacement. Fiscal year 2024/25 also includes
$5,194,580 for the Downtown Infrastructure Enhancement Project. Revenue for the
Downtown Infrastructure Enhancement Project was received in years prior to the
expenditure and is currently reflected in the General Fund Reserves.
47
Summary
Across the last two decades, Council has shown strong leadership in sticking to its
financial strategy; tucking away reserves in the good years and judiciously using them
as the economy dipped and now continues to improve. The Council, the community,
and the staff have responsibly budgeted much of the funding made available by Sales
Tax Measure D-20 funds. While these funds have brought some needed relief, they
aren’t sufficient to fund everything. Prioritization and compromise will continue to be
key factors to consider while analyzing the opportunities to come.
48
Atascadero
Comprehensive Financial Strategy
April 2023
Section 4- Long-Term Costs
49
Long-Term Costs
In the financial strategy
diagram to the right, there are
two expenditure trend lines.
The lower dotted line
represents the strategic plan.
That is the limit at which the
expenditures are budgeted.
However, there are many
services that are being
consumed that are not
included in the bi-annual
budget. The upper solid line
includes not only the
budgeted items, but also all of
the unseen expenses that will eventually come due. The City currently doesn’t put any
funding into Storm Drain Reserves, yet the storm drains are used constantly, and wear
out a little more each day. At some point, they will need replacing and there will be a
large price tag associated with this. This has become even more evident after the January
2023 storms. Similarly, there are only minor reserves being set aside for replacement of
park equipment or building components. The parks in our community are heavily used
and are exposed to the elements. Building components like roofs, HVAC units, and
plumbing have a life span and will eventually need to be replaced. The City has made
long strides in funding some of these hidden costs like vehicles and technology, but not
all of the categories of long-term costs have been funded or funded consistently. In order
to make ends meet during some of the economic downturns, many of the reserves that
had historically been funded on some level were reduced or not funded at all. Although
this expense holiday is helpful to keep the immediate use of reserves to a minimum, these
unseen costs continue to incur and escalate each year, and should be understood for
thoughtful future planning since the City’s infrastructure and facilities will eventually fail
and need to be replaced. The economic impacts from the recent storms will exacerbate
the unfunded infrastructure liabilities in the short to mid-term, but Measure D-20 could
assist in lessening this effect and provide stable funding to address deferred and
unfunded needs.
Let’s take the example of a hard-working teenager
named Dominic. His parents agree to give him his
first car as long as he can pay for its expenses. He
thinks getting a free car sounds great, so he agrees
to the deal and gets a job flipping burgers making
$12.00/hour. He works 10-15 hours a week. He
feels good about himself. After taxes, he takes
home $5,800 annually. That’s just the right amount
to pay for his insurance, gas, minor car repairs, and
of course, his girlfriend and a few video games.
Take home pay $ 5,800
Insurance (2,000)
Gas (2,200)
Repairs (800)
Girlfriend (350)
Video Games (450)
Net $ -
YearsDollars
Nominal Expenses RevenuesReal Expenses
50
Satisfied that he makes enough money to accommodate all of the important things in life,
our friend Dominic continues on his merry way.
Time moves on, and eventually Dominic finds himself
several years down the road. Feeling successful that
he’s always been able to take care of himself without
getting a loan from mom and dad, he hasn’t made any
lifestyle changes to improve his ability to earn more
income or tuck away extra in savings. Therefore, he
still works flipping burgers, an honest living.
Thankfully, he gets a cost of living raise each year, so
he has been able to keep up with inflation. Tragedy
strikes when his beloved car finally breaks down and
he has to buy a new one. He has not been saving up
any money over the last several years, so he has to
apply for a loan. Now, with the new car payment, he is unable to make ends meet.
Dominic truly regrets not looking forward to prepare for this day by having made the
changes that could have allowed him options now that his car is broken and he still has
to get to work. As we plan for the City’s future, understanding some of the City’s unfunded
costs will help us to avoid making the same mistake that Dominic made.
This section analyzes some of the annual hidden costs facing the City. The information
developed within the following pages has been verified to the extent possible. However,
as more information becomes known or as experience modifies the facts or assumptions,
the information will be modified. The intent is one of information; to provide general facts
about significant business concerns facing the City. This information is essential to
establishing a practical financial strategy.
This section of the report includes an in-depth discussion of issues surrounding street
and bridge maintenance, storm drains, building and component replacement, technology
replacement, vehicle replacement, and equipment replacement (collectively referred to
as infrastructure); a discussion of long-term leave liability, followed by a general
discussion of unfunded liabilities and wastewater assets.
In former editions of the Comprehensive Financial Strategy, estimates were provided in
each of the categories for the Reserve Deficit, or the total amount of money that should
have been placed aside in the reserve fund to date. These estimates have been
eliminated from this edition, as they were based on historical costs. The historical cost
methodology took the historical cost of each asset when it was built, and then estimated
how much of that cost had been used up.
While this is useful information to know for accounting purposes, it is not as useful for
planning for future needs of the community. For instance, we know that Fire Station #1
has a historical cost basis of approximately $177,000 and of that historical investment
amount, about $113,000 has been depreciated or used up. We also know that the costs
to rebuild the Fire Station to essential services building standards is in the tens of millions
of dollars, not hundreds of thousands of dollars, and using the $177,000 figure would give
Take home pay $ 6,300
Insurance (2,100)
Gas (2,400)
Repairs (300)
Girlfriend (400)
Video Games (520)
Car payment (1,380)
Net $ (800)
51
the wrong understanding of the financial picture. Data is not available for the precise
costs of Fire Station #1, other City facilities, equipment and infrastructure, as adequate
resources have not been available to further update the valuation data. Information is
provided, where possible, to give the reader a sense of the magnitude of replacement
cost deficits in each category.
Infrastructure
Infrastructure includes the basic facilities and assets needed to run the City. It includes
public infrastructure such as roads, storm drains, street lights, traffic signals, sidewalks,
bridges, wastewater collection and treatment, and other large capital items needed to
support households, businesses, and industries. It includes facilities such as fire stations,
police station, parks, the zoo, City Hall and other large capital assets that are needed to
provide services to the public. It also includes the basic underlying capital assets needed
for the day-to-day operations of the City including computers, software, radios, breathing
apparatus, police cars, tractors, fire engines, etc.
The research into these areas illustrates the need for reserve funds to deal with these
business costs. The following table summarizes the findings contained in this Section.
The Reserve Fund Strategy is the average amount budgeted for each year in the current
budget cycle. The Annual Reserve Fund Requirement is the annual need for each of the
areas if the City was able to provide full funding.
Streets Maintenance $ 5,000,000 $ 5,533,200
Bridge Maintenance 280,000 115,400
Storm Drain Maintenance 390,000 60,000
Building and Park
Replacement 2,049,320 250,000
Technology Replacement 198,000 198,000
Vehicle Replacement 544,290 544,290
Equipment Replacement 264,750 225,000
TOTAL $ 8,726,360 $ 6,925,890
INFRASTRUCTURE REPLACEMENT
Estimated Annual
Reserve
Requirement
Reserve Fund Strategy
The scope of this may seem daunting, however, the City does not need to have all assets
in new condition to function smoothly and provide services to its citizens, and all costs
certainly won’t come due in the near term or all at the same time. A “fair” condition for
the roads might be the realistic targeted service level, and that is a much different reserve
than assuming all roads need to be in “excellent” condition. Each infrastructure system
needs to be looked at individually and when analyzing infrastructure funding, the City
should look at immediate needs, long-term funding needs, when an asset needs to be
replaced, what has worked historically, and what are the service levels the City can
maintain.
52
Street and Bridge Maintenance
Introduction:
The City of Atascadero is responsible for maintaining a transportation system that
involves 145 centerline miles of roadway. While the primary focus of maintaining this
system has been on pavement management, other system components include bridges,
traffic signals, traffic signs, pavement markings, guardrails, street lights, landscape
medians, curbing, sidewalks, pedestrian ramps, and storm drainage. All these
components are integrated into the City’s transportation system and work in concert to
support safety of motorists, pedestrians, and bicyclists. Furthermore, the transportation
system is a core function to support residents, businesses, industries, commerce, and
public safety (police and fire). This network represents a substantial investment by the
City, and has been identified as a critical concern of the community. This section deals
with the street, bridge and other similar infrastructure maintenance responsibilities of the
City.
Analysis:
Streets:
The Atascadero Road Program was developed in 1999 to focus the City’s efforts in
maintaining and protecting the roads of Atascadero in an organized, efficient and cost-
effective manner. With the relatively high miles of road to maintain and the relatively low
revenue per capita, keeping the City’s roads maintained in a fair or good condition has
always been a challenge. Ironically, some of the conditions that make the community so
wonderful to live in, such as Atascadero’s rural character and relatively low population,
make it the most difficult to secure funding. Many federal and state road maintenance
funds (i.e. Gas Tax revenue) are derived from population statistics. Similar to many other
cities, Atascadero suffers from a funding shortfall for road maintenance due to the aging
road system and the City’s revenue base. The reality is that funding options from federal
and state agencies are limited, leaving the City with fewer options for maintenance and
rehabilitation.
Since the inception of the Atascadero Roads Program, significant effort has been made
toward repairing the roads and minimizing the maintenance deficit. The Atascadero Road
Program is based on local pavement management strategy. Pavement management is
the process of planning the maintenance and repair of City streets, in order to optimize
pavement conditions over the entire network. Pavement management incorporates life
cycle costs into a more systematic approach to minor and major road maintenance and
reconstruction projects. The needs of the entire network as well as budget projections are
considered before projects are executed. Pavement management encompasses the
many aspects and tasks needed to maintain a quality pavement inventory, and ensure
that the overall condition of the road network can be maximized to the extent possible.
In March 2015, the City Council endorsed the Critical Point Management methodology
for the City’s Pavement Management System. The City utilizes a software program called
53
StreetSaver® to manage roadway pavements. This software is one of the most accepted
industry leaders in pavement management technology. The road network and GIS
information were entered into the program and then streets were field inspected for
pavement distresses. The collected data is used to calculate a Pavement Condition Index
(PCI) based on the 0 to 100 rating scale, 100 being excellent and 0 representing a failed
road. StreetSaver® keeps track of the inspected conditions for each roadway segment
(intersection to intersection) and any maintenance and improvement work is logged to
keep conditions current. Funding scenarios are run using the critical point management
and PCI break points to develop a priority list of roadway segments that are included in
the City 5-year Capital Improvement Program.
Visual field inspections were last performed in April 2019
for the 145 miles of municipally maintained and managed
roadway system. At that time, the overall weighted PCI
was 50 on a 100-point scale, which corresponds to the very
upper range of “poor” pavement conditions. This also
represents an increase in PCI of three points from the
previous field inspections conducted in 2014. Back in
2014, the PCI was projected to decrease three points over
a five-year period, even with the new Measure F-14
funding, but actually increased three points. This increase
demonstrates that Critical Point Management, coupled with
sound engineering decisions, is a successful strategy. It is
important to keep in mind that PCI numbers are relevant to one another and used as a
planning tool for prioritizing where monies are best spent. Field inspections are
undertaken every five years, with the next inspections scheduled for 2024.
The breakdown by functional road classification is summarized in the following table:
Street Classification
Centerline
Miles
Area
(Square Feet)
Percent of
System
Average
PCI
Arterial 37.36 5,928,609 31.2% 59
Collector 21.65 2,895,138 15.2% 50
Residential 85.73 10,185,434 53.6% 46
Total 144.74 19,009,181 100.0% 50
The following table shows the PCI distribution in the street system in 2019:
Condition PCI Range Percent of System
Excellent – Very Good 100 - 91 5.73%
Good 90 - 71 14.01%
Fair 70 - 51 25.17%
Poor 50 - 31 30.33%
Failed 30 – 0 24.76%
54
Critical Point Management involves utilizing pavement management strategies,
improvement techniques, and prioritization for roadway projects with the available funding
that are geared to provide the lowest life cycle costs for the roadway system.
There are three common strategies in pavement management and project prioritization:
1. “Best First” – focuses on keeping best conditioned streets in good condition;
2. “Worst First” – focuses on improving the worst conditioned street; and
3. “Critical Point” – focuses on preventing streets from dropping into PCI ranges
that trigger more expensive maintenance and improvements.
There are economical, safety, and
social/political considerations in
each of the strategies. The first two
strategies are short-sighted and will
allow roadways to degrade and slip
into a more costly PCI range for
needed improvements. The critical
point strategy is a long-range
methodology that focuses on
preventing roadways from dropping
into PCI ranges that trigger more
expensive maintenance and
improvements.
Although the unit prices are not
current, the charts to the right
provide an example of the costs
savings by employing the critical
point management theory.
State and federal revenue streams for transportation are primarily funded through the fuel
tax. Higher fuel efficiency vehicles, increases in electric vehicle use (which do not pay
any gas tax) and changes in vehicle use patterns all affect the current revenue stream
and foreshadow continuing declines in fuel tax receipts for future transportation
investments. Even though vehicle miles traveled in California have increased and fuel
prices have risen significantly in that same time period, the California gas tax can’t keep
pace with the cost of road maintenance and repairs. Broad inflation over the last several
years has also significantly impacted construction costs, and oil price increases
specifically have increased the costs for asphalt pavement rehabilitation. The passage
of SB-1 accommodates annual adjustments to the gas tax rates, but it will take many
years (if ever) to finally intercept the inflated rates and CPI increases that have occurred
in the past.
Funding available to the City for road projects has been a challenge. The City continues
to maximize the projects that can be completed with the funding that is available, in
addition to actively looking for any grant opportunities that may become available. The
cost to maintain Atascadero’s road system, combined with the declining availability of
55
road funds to accomplish this maintenance, were key considerations for a sales tax
increase that would primarily fund road projects.
In November 2014, Atascadero voters approved Measure F-14, a half-cent sales tax
increase that became effective April 1, 2015. The voters also approved advisory Measure
E-14 at the same time, indicating that the community preferred to spend that additional
revenue on roads. Measure F-14 provides additional road funding and will work together
with the City’s existing funding sources to maintain/increase the citywide road conditions.
Measure F-14 was approved for a period of 12 years. It will expire in fiscal year 2026/27
unless it is approved by Atascadero voters to continue beyond that time. The Road
Maintenance and Rehabilitation Act (SB1) provides an estimated $600,000± annually to
supplement the City’s ongoing maintenance efforts.
The City has developed a 5-year Capital Improvement Program (CIP) for roadway
projects, which includes projects funded by both Measure F-14 fund and existing City
capital project funds. Over the five-year period, the City anticipates spending over $28
million to maintain and improve City maintained roads. StreetSaver®, using critical point
management, is used to develop a list of roadway segments for consideration each fiscal
year. Roadway projects utilizing Measure F-14 funds are typically not combined with
other roadway segments utilizing other funding sources. A separate list is generated for
Measure F-14 roadway segments and non-Measure F-14 roadway repairs.
The current 5-Year Capital Improvement Plan (FY21/22 – FY25/26) includes over 36
centerline miles of roadway improvements involving rehabilitation or resurfacing. Almost
25 miles are funded with Measure F-14 funding, and the remaining approximate 11 miles
have other funding sources, such as LTF and SB1. While the 36 miles of road
improvements translates to nearly 25% of the City’s maintained roadway system being
improved over five years, this does not translate to mean that the entire system will be
improved in the next 15 to 20 years since many of these roads are in a fair to good
condition and less costly to repair than those which are not included.
The StreetSaver® pavement management approach will assist the City in optimizing
available funding by focusing projects in the highest need ranked areas and performing
lower cost preventative maintenance as much as possible to avoid higher cost
reconstruction project. Spending funds on preservation (crack filling, seal coating, chip
seals, etc.) delays or prevents major restoration projects, and results in lower long-term
costs. Well-timed preventative maintenance of a roadways’ surface increases its service
life and delays the need for expensive rehabilitation or reconstruction. This has been
particularly apparent in the last several years as both oil prices (the primary cost
component of asphalt) and labor costs have escalated. While costs for resurfacing, which
has the lowest oil content and is the most mechanized, have remained fairly stable, costs
for more labor-intensive asphalt overlays and roadway reconstructions have increased
substantially. This is illustrated in the cost per square yard for minor maintenance all the
way up to major reconstruction in the following chart.
56
Traffic Signals, Traffic Signs, and Pavement Markings:
The City owns and operates 12 signalized intersections - two which are located at the
Santa Rosa Road/US 101 interchange and the remaining ten located on El Camino Real
at Santa Barbara Road, San Rafael Road, Santa Rosa Road, Palomar Avenue, Junipero
Avenue, Curbaril Avenue, West Mall, Traffic Way, San Anselmo Road, and Del Rio Road.
Many of these traffic signals were constructed as a condition of nearby developments to
mitigate traffic impacts generated by the development to the intersections. The most
recent traffic signal constructed is over ten years old (Santa Rosa at US 101) and others
are much older. However, over the last two years improvements have been made, as a
condition of adjacent developments, to portions of the intersections signal systems at the
West Mall and Del Rio Road intersections. Additionally, signal improvements are planned
at the El Camino Real/Traffic Way intersection as part of an upcoming CIP project.
The Master Facilities Plan includes improvements to some of the remaining intersections
that will require replacement or upgrades to traffic signals. The cost of these
improvements are calculated into the Traffic Impact Fees charged to developments and
eligible for use of those funds when improved or upgraded. However, these funds are
not eligible for upkeep, repairs, or in-kind replacement of traffic signal components, which
often are paid from operational expenditures.
Other critical components to the City’s transportation system include traffic signs and
pavement markings. There are currently 2,120 traffic signs, 16.5 miles of pavement
striping and 24,210 pavement legends in use on City maintained roadways. While these
signs and markings may seem to be trivial expenses compared to road improvements
and bridge replacements, signs and markings instruct and guide motorists and other
roadway users for safe use of the roadways. This is especially important when driving in
the dark.
57
The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) understands the importance of keeping
traffic signs and pavement markings in good condition, and made an amendment in 2012
to the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) requiring retro-reflectivity
standards. The MUTCD requires the City to have a management plan to inspect and
replace traffic signs, which typically need replacement every ten to fifteen years.
Pavement markings wear out much quicker depending on type and traffic usage. Painted
markings last from one to four years, while new thermoplastic markings may last up to
seven years. Pavement markings will become much more important to keep in good
condition as vehicle automation with self-driving cars rely on pavement markings for
controlling and guiding the vehicle. Replacement of traffic signs and maintenance of
pavement markings is currently paid through operational expenditures. Pavement
markings are typically replaced with thermoplastic markings with roadway projects on the
capital improvement program, but maintenance of others are typically painted.
The annual reserve requirement for streets, including traffic signals, signs and pavement
markings, is estimated at $5 million. Based on information from StreetSaver®, it is
estimated that the total accumulated reserve deficit is about $120 million.
Estimated Annual
Reserve
Requirement
Streets Maintenance $ (5,000,000)
Bridges:
The City is also responsible for 18 vehicular bridges and a handful of other non-vehicular
bridges such as Centennial Bridge over Atascadero Creek. While some of these bridges
are relatively newer, such as the Lewis Avenue Bridge over Atascadero Creek, others are
in excess of 100 years old. The following table shows the vehicular bridge inventory
within the City. The Garcia Road over Graves Creek is privately owned and maintained,
and the UPRR railroad bridge over Capistrano Avenue is the responsibility of Union
Pacific Railroad, but both are shown on the table as they are located within City limits.
58
Caltrans inspects and rates each of the 18 City bridges every two years. As the table
shows, most bridge condition are in the fair and good category rating. There are two
bridges with poor ratings, and three that are “Structural Deficient” (SD) or not capable of
handling the current design loads. Many others in the table are “Functionally Obsolete”
and do not meet current standards for lane configuration, approach alignments, or other
geometric requirements.
Historically, bridge maintenance and replacement have largely been funded through the
federal Highway Bridge Replacement and Rehabilitation Program (HBRRP). While this
funding had been looking much less secure, significant funding became available in 2022
for bridge replacement projects ready for construction. This is welcome news for the City,
as two bridges currently scheduled for replacement (Via Avenue over Atascadero Creek
and Santa Lucia Road over Graves Creek), were allocated construction funding through
HBRRP and will be replaced during 2023. Going forward, however, the amount of
HBRRP funding available for future projects remains unclear, and eligibility requirements
for HBRRP funds have tightened as costs escalated for current projects in the federal
Program, leaving fewer resources available.
The annual reserve requirement for bridges is estimated at $280,000.
Estimated Annual
Reserve
Requirement
Bridge Maintenance $ (280,000)
59
Conclusion:
It is the City’s goal to fully fund street maintenance and the Public Works Department has
developed a strategy to maximize available road project funding. Measure F-14 and SB1
have been a boost in local roadway funding and will go a long way in improving the PCI
of Atascadero’s road system, but the City needs to invest more if the overall pavement
condition of the roadway system is to continue to increase and other transportation
components are proactively maintained and replaced to ensure the performance,
reliability, and safety of all that depend upon it.
60
Storm Drain Maintenance
Introduction:
Atascadero’s Storm Drain system has historically been a source of mystery and concern.
The collection system is primarily a covert system; its purpose is to quietly collect excess
runoff and keep the streets from flooding. Thanks to the efforts of the Public Works
department, the storm drain system is fairly effective in keeping the water off the streets
and reducing the risk of flooding in typical rain events, but it hasn’t always been like that.
In the not too distant past, even modest rains brought uncontrolled flooding, primarily due
to the “organic” nature in which the system was constructed, which relies on surface
drainage to convey stormwater runoff. By better understanding the system and evaluating
the condition of each of the components, the City is better able to manage the system
and be proactive in preventing problems.
Analysis:
To this end, in 2012, the Public Works Department inventoried the complete drainage
system of all pipes, inlets, manholes and bridges, and measured and characterized the
location, size, material and general condition of each facility. There are currently over 28-
miles of culvert or storm drain piping within City road right-of-way. The study created an
initial priority list for future projects, and established a replacement schedule and the
funding needs based on conservative lifespan and construction costs so as to not
overstate the cost to maintain these facilities.
Using the information collected, a number of immediate maintenance and replacement
projects were identified, and carried out within the limitations of the current Operations
budget.
The following are some highlights of the study’s findings:
Existing Storm Drain Inventory (2012 Study)
• 28 miles of existing culverts within the city’s storm drain network
• A total of 1,740 individual pipe segments
– 1,022 segments are CMP (shortest lifespan)
– 416 segments are HDPE
– 238 segments are RCP
– 60 segments are PVC
– 4 segments are Steel
• 1,440 segments are City maintained
– The length of city maintained culverts is 24.4 miles
– 48% of all city maintained culverts are CMP
– Currently 3,180 feet of culvert is characterized as needing near term
replacement
• 600 drain inlets and structures
61
The graph below illustrates the condition of the segments in 2012:
EXCELLENT
10%
GOOD
52%
FAIR
24%
POOR
9%
REPLACE
5%
Storm Drain Segment Condition
The good news is that 86% of pipes in the 2012 Study were considered “Fair” or better.
As of 2012 that left only 14% in a condition that needed replacement in the next 4 to 10-
years. However, galvanized steel pipe (CMP) has a life expectancy of 15-40 years, and
over the past ten years since the 2012 study a significant percentage of the CMP installed
in the City has reached or exceeded that life expectancy. A rough estimate of the annual
storm drain replacement needs over a 30-year period is $200,000 per year through 2025,
ultimately increasing to $600,000 per year.
When possible, the City includes replacement of old CMP storm drain pipes with new
HDPE (high density polyethylene) pipes during roadway rehabilitation projects. This
significantly lowers storm drain replacement construction costs and minimizes impacts to
the travelling public. This also reduces the amount that the City needs to set aside
specifically for drainage replacement costs as those costs are included with the road
project costs An updated drainage system evaluation will provide more accurate and
detailed information of existing liabilities.
62
The future replacement schedule will significantly increase as CMP material culverts
(primarily) installed in the ‘70’s, 80’s and ‘90’s reach their expected lifespan. The study
concludes that replacement costs step up and are estimated as follows:
The annual reserve requirement for storm drains is estimated at $390,000.
Estimated Annual
Reserve
Requirement
Storm Drains $ (390,000)
Conclusion:
The City gained a much better understanding of the Storm Drain system after the 2012
study was performed. The 2012 study, combined with additional data gathered during
street inspections, has provided valuable information on the condition and location of
each of the many components so the Public Works Department can best focus resources
on the issues of highest concern. Although the system is aging, the majority of it is in
relatively good shape. The proactive approach to repairs of the storm drain components
protect life and property by reducing or preventing flooding and helping to preserve the
adjoining roads and infrastructure. City staff plans to perform an updated evaluation of
the storm drains and culvert conditions and costs in the near future.
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Annual Reserve RequirementFiscal Year
63
Building Replacement
Introduction:
The City of Atascadero owns a number of different buildings including City Hall, Police
and Fire Stations, the Pavilion on the Lake, the Colony Park Community Center, and the
City Corporate Yard. This section also encompasses a wide range of assets such as
park restrooms, playgrounds, sports areas, building improvements, and Zoo exhibits, just
to name a few. Assets of most departments are included in the following discussion, with
the exception of the Wastewater Department.
Analysis:
The City keeps a list of all buildings and improvements within the City. The list estimates
the original cost, size, age and remaining life of the assets. The list tracks all buildings,
storage structures, park buildings and improvements, and Zoo exhibits along with the
corresponding costs and depreciation. The City should be setting aside funds each year
in the reserve account to fund replacements and major repairs.
The fire stations are good examples of the City’s need to invest in building replacement.
Over the decades, the fire stations have housed many firefighters while they work to
protect the City of Atascadero. Built in 1952, Station 1 on Lewis Avenue was designed as
a station for a mostly volunteer firefighting staff. From volunteer firefighter beginnings,
the station morphed into what we have today, which required several remodels and
changes along the way. Station 1 now facilitates 24/7 staffing which required the addition
of bedrooms, bathrooms and a kitchen. It houses three fire engines, one rescue trailer,
one ambulance and several command vehicles. It provides storage for advanced medical
equipment and supplies, self-contained breathing apparatus equipment, the firefighter
turnout washer, breathing air compressor and so much more.
While staff takes great pride in maintaining the Fire Station, the station is showing signs
of its nearly 70-year old age. Water-stained ceiling tiles, masonry cracks throughout the
station flooring, driveway and exterior columns, diesel exhaust stained walls, small rooms
and limited storage all speak to the underlying issues that the current budget has been
unable to fix. Safety items to be addressed include the structural stability and earthquake
retrofit of both the roof structure and the hose tower. The station needs updated features
to keep firefighters safe. Cancer causing agents such as vehicle exhaust and dirty turnout
gear or biohazards on medical equipment need to be isolated from the living quarters to
keep firefighters safe and healthy. Fire Station #1 is in the early stages of replacement
using Measure D-20 funds.
Fire Station 2 was built in the mid-1980s and is also showing its age. With one bedroom
and a small square footage, it was built to house two firefighters. With four firefighters
now on duty at the station during the wildfire season, this small footprint provides for very
cramped quarters.
64
Maintenance and enhancement of the Charles Paddock Zoo and the animal exhibits will
continue to be a priority. Many of the animal exhibits at the zoo are very old, deteriorated
and functionally obsolete. In order to continue to provide for these endangered animals,
these exhibits must be replaced in the near future. Many of the Zoo’s needs are often
met through the generous donations of the community. The Zoo has historically received
donations both through the Friends of the Zoo, and directly from members of the
community. The Thelma Vetter Red Panda Exhibit is a great example. Staff work
diligently to maximize these funding sources by fulfilling the unmet needs of the Zoo, and
follow up with City-funded resources when possible. The Zoo will need to make some
significant replacements to animal exhibits in order to maintain accreditation.
Park facilities are also deteriorating including parking lots, sidewalks, benches, picnic
tables, playgrounds, restrooms, and athletic facilities. The shoreline retaining walls at
Atascadero Lake needs significant work, and the lake requires costly periodic dredging
to keep it healthy.
Replacing and repairing these assets has been put off in order to make ends meet. Some
items like playground equipment, shade structures or picnic benches are removed until
donations are made to replace them. Other critical infrastructure that must be replaced
or fixed is done as an emergency measure by eliminating or delaying some other service,
program, or capital replacement. It is important to find ongoing funding to repair and
replace these items as necessary.
Understanding the value of funding these items, the City Council has authorized transfers
from the General Fund to the Building Maintenance and Replacement fund. These
investments are made possible due to some one-time occurrences in the General Fund
in a particular year, making the amount unexpectedly available to be put in reserves for
future facility repairs or replacements.
A valuation of Atascadero City-owned property was recently completed and paid for by
the California Joint Powers Insurance Authority (CPJIA), the City’s self-insurance pool.
The replacement cost of City-owned buildings and improvements was estimated in
excess of $88 million. This doesn’t suggest that the City should have that amount tucked
away in a reserve account, however it does provide some context as to the level of
investment the City has in this category
The estimated annual reserve requirement for building replacement is demonstrated
below:
65
City Department
Estimated Annual
Reserve
Requirement
Historic City Hall $ (962,330)
Fire (351,080)
Parks (196,310)
Pavilion (92,940)
Police (112,130)
Recreation (198,910)
Public Works (31,380)
Zoo (104,240)
Total Ideal (2,049,320)
Current Funding Level 250,000
TOTAL (Deficit) / Surplus $ (1,799,320)
BUILDINGS
Conclusion:
It is the City’s goal to fully fund building replacement. The City was able to begin partially
funding building replacement in fiscal year 2000/01, and continued through 2008/09 until
the Great Recession prevented further funding. There is currently about $4.2 million
saved up in the fund. Historically, the building reserves were largely used to pay for repair
projects and improvements, which prolong the lives of the assets and keep them in good
working order. In addition, staff actively looks for grants and other opportunities to
augment available funds. The City has been successful with FEMA/OES and California
Cultural and Historical Endowment (CCHE) funding for City Hall, grant programs such as
the Energy Efficiency Grant for municipal buildings, Proposition 68 for the replacement of
the Atascadero Lake Pier, and local donations. This has been an effective strategy thus
far, but eventually costs will come due. Fire station #1 is scheduled for replacement and
because there aren’t enough building replacement reserves, that project is being funded
with Measure D-20 funds.
66
Technology Replacement
Introduction:
The City has a significant investment and dependence on technology equipment
throughout the different departments. The computers and associated software make-up
a technology system that is crucial to the day-to-day operations of the City. The system
represents a total value of about $3.4 million including specialized software. This section
deals with the current technology replacement responsibilities of the City.
Analysis:
Each department was reviewed for the number of computers and associated software
necessary to complete department objectives. Expected useful lives and replacement
costs are determined and used to calculate the amount of reserve necessary each year.
As technology continues to emerge quickly, it can be difficult to know what the future
brings. Technology staff are always on the lookout for newer and more efficient
technology that will provide safe and effective computing tools for managing City
business. The City has been funding replacement and maintenance reserve for
technology for almost 25 years, and as a result, the technology reserve is almost fully
funded. Both hardware and software are maximized and best efforts are made to stretch
the useful life out as long as possible, while keeping a tight balance with efficiency.
The reserve fund allows for hardware and upgrades as determined necessary. Daily City
business functions are dependent on the consistent operation of the City’s computers,
associated technologies, safety, data backup, and data integrity. The two biggest
concerns in the field of technology and data management are data loss and data
corruption (through any number of methods.) Data backup and redundancy are critical
to protect against these two concerns and are the backbones of the City’s technical
infrastructure. The City must be prepared in the event of emergencies that may impact
the electronic operations of the City, and the City must have security in place to avoid
being the target of unwanted data intrusions and ransoms. Therefore, it is critical that the
City have a designated reserve for the replacement and upgrade of computers and other
technology equipment as it becomes obsolete.
67
The annual cost to provide for replacement of the technology system is as follows:
City Department
Estimated Annual
Reserve
Requirement
City Council $ (900)
City Manager (3,630)
Administrative Services (18,060)
Police (27,550)
Fire (9,040)
Community Development (8,950)
Recreation (6,180)
Public Works (7,690)
Information Technology (116,000)
Total Ideal (198,000)
Current Funding Level 198,000
TOTAL (Deficit) / Surplus $ -
TECHNOLOGY
Conclusion:
It is the City’s goal to maintain a technology fund that will provide for the replacement and
upgrading of technology as needed. Since the City began funding technology
replacement in the 1998/99 budget, an adequate reserve exists to fund the City’s
technology needs in order to keep operations running smoothly and efficiently. Costs to
fully fund technology have not been delayed as other reserve funds were. In addition to
providing the opportunity to replace items as needed, the technology reserves allow the
City to take advantage of newer and more efficient technologies as they become
mainstream. That being said, technology is constantly evolving and prices are
continuously changing. The amount to fully fund this category of about $2.4 million in
technology assets may change and grow, and will be evaluated again as we move into
the new budget cycle.
68
Vehicle Replacement
Introduction:
The City owns many vehicles that are operated in the various City departments, from
patrol cars to parks vehicles. The estimated replacement value of this rolling stock is
about $7.3 million. Eventually, all of this equipment must be replaced as it becomes
ineffective. Like similar tools addressed previously, vehicles are critical to performance
of department objectives and in order to carry out the priorities of the community.
Analysis:
Ninety-eight percent of the value of the $7.3 million in vehicles belongs to the police, fire
and public works departments. All of these departments require employees to travel
throughout the community with very specialized vehicles. Police officers need patrol cars
to keep criminal activity in check, fire fighters need fire trucks and engines to fight fires,
and public works need tractors, mowers, and service trucks to keep up the infrastructure
and the community treasures.
These specialized vehicles are critical to the operations of the departments and are
typically higher priced purchases. The Council’s goal has been to fully fund the vehicle
replacement fund. Vehicles, like technology, are used until they become either inefficient
or inoperable. Savings can be achieved when a vehicle’s useful life can be stretched out
by one or more extra years. Staff has been conscientious about how this affects the City’s
bottom line and has utilized this technique effectively.
While the City has consistently been funding the routine replacement of smaller vehicles
such as police cars and building inspector vehicles, there was pause on funding the
larger, more expensive vehicles from 2009-2011 through 2019-2021 due to revenue
constraints. Starting with the 2021-2023 budget cycle, these vehicles are once again
being funded and additional amounts were added to the reserve to make up the difference
from the twelve-year funding holiday. These were funded with Measure D-20 in the 2021-
2023 budget cycle.
Costs of replacement vehicles have risen significantly in the past few years. Starting with
the 2021-2023 budget cycle, many of the replacement values of the existing rolling stock
were increased to reflect current pricing environments. Prices have continued to rise in
the last two years, and it is only very recently that prices are beginning to ease slightly.
The COVID-era impacts of supply chain shortages have not yet be resolved in the
marketplace, and supply of most vehicles continues to be restricted. It is not uncommon
to see lead times of a year or more on police and fire vehicles, which puts even more
pressure on the departments to continue use of older rolling stock.
The estimated annual reserve for vehicle replacement is as follows:
69
Conclusion:
As part of the budget cycle, staff will look at the City’s fleet of vehicles to determine the
appropriate amount of annual funding needed and how much of that can be
accommodated in the budget. Thanks to the careful planning of the Council, the City has
met its goal to have sufficient funding for the replacement vehicles. Because the City has
committed to annually contributing to vehicle replacement, vehicles are replaced as
needed.
City Department
Estimated Annual
Reserve
Requirement
Police $ (243,720)
Fire (221,120)
Community Development (6,000)
Recreation (3,000)
Zoo (4,000)
Public Works (5,030)
Streets (28,340)
Parks (26,080)
Building Maintenance (7,000)
Total Ideal (544,290)
Current Funding Level 544,290
TOTAL (Deficit) / Surplus $ -
VEHICLES
70
Equipment Replacement
Introduction:
The City has a significant amount of equipment, which is essential to the operation of the
City. These tools are necessary and allow employees to effectively perform their duties.
The ideal strategy would be to work toward a program where replacement is funded
annually, allowing the City to stay current with equipment. Wastewater equipment is not
included in the estimates for this section.
Analysis:
Each department has specialized equipment that assists employees in performing their
duties as expected. Office staff need office machines such as copiers, police officers
need radios and radio repeaters, fire fighters need breathing apparatuses and jaws of life,
parks employees need mowers and irrigation equipment.
For example, as an all risk fire department, the firefighters are equipped and trained to
respond to not only structure and vegetation fires, but also medical emergencies, traffic
collisions, hazardous material incidents, technical rescues, natural disasters and more.
Public safety personnel rely on a variety of tools and equipment that are crucial to
mitigating these emergencies.
Traffic collisions sometimes require extrication tools, like the Jaws of Life, to remove a
trapped occupant from a vehicle. Every medical emergency, fire paramedics use cardiac
monitors to assess and treat patients. Firefighters require specialized breathing apparatus
to fight structure fires, keeping their airway safe from fatal heat and gases. Both Fire and
Police require specialized protection as part of their uniform, like firefighter turnouts and
bulletproof vests and helmets. All public safety members rely heavily on radios for
communication, which not only means hand-held and mobile radios, but also the towers
and equipment that support the radio network. Recent mandates by the State have placed
additional requirements on the Police Department radio system.
Also, standby generators are important pieces of equipment throughout the City that allow
services to continue uninterrupted during power outages or PG&E power shutdowns.
Generators provide back-up power to essential service buildings such as the Police and
Fire Stations, but also power essential functions such as radio repeaters sites,
wastewater lift stations and Zoo refrigerators, but not all of these facilities have the
generators needed in a PG&E widespread shut down.
While Staff does their best to keep existing equipment running for the maximum amount
of time, eventually equipment ceases to be effective. Often times, specific items of
equipment must be replaced to comply with new regulations or safety requirements. The
City’s budget has included some contribution to the equipment replacement fund during
most of the fiscal years 2000/01 through 2007/08. Limited, yet helpful, contributions were
included in the 2021-2023 budget cycle. While all of these tools and equipment are critical
71
to public safety, they are not yet fully funded. Police, Fire and Public Works have relied
many times on grants and donations to fund this equipment, and continue to look for
grants and alternative funding sources were possible.
The 2021-2023 budget cycle includes $450,000 for an asset management program. The
process of implementing this program would include a survey of the City’s equipment and
other assets. Once this survey has been completed, and the data has been verified and
uploaded to the software program, staff will have a much better idea of what the annual
reserve amount should be, and expect it to be much more significant than current
estimates below. Until that time, the estimated annual reserve for equipment replacement
is as follows:
Conclusion:
It is the City’s goal to fully fund equipment replacement; however, this has been a difficult
goal to achieve. Equipment replacement was funded from about fiscal year 2000 to fiscal
year 2008. City staff has been very successful obtaining grants for critical equipment
replacement, and have received generous community donations to fund equipment such
as a large portion of the breathing apparatus equipment for fire fighters. The Fire
Department has also received funding to the replace the extrication equipment. The
Police Department has used special funding and grants for communications equipment
and other police equipment. City staff will continue to maximize the equipment life to the
extent possible, take advantage of savings opportunities as they arise, and continue to
pursue grant funding as an alternative funding source. Equipment replacement for many
items has not been complete and there are items that will have to be replaced within the
next budget cycle. The current accumulated reserve deficit is estimated to be between
$3 million and $4 million.
City Department
Estimated Annual
Reserve
Requirement
Administration $ (7,760)
Police (76,140)
Fire (144,780)
Recreation -
Pavilion (360)
Zoo (60)
Public Works (4,140)
Streets (8,590)
Parks (22,920)
Total Ideal (264,750)
Current Funding Level 225,000
TOTAL (Deficit) / Surplus $ (39,750)
EQUIPMENT
72
Leave Accruals
Introduction:
There are several different types of paid leave that accrue to full-time employees. These
include vacation, holiday, administrative leave, sick leave, and compensatory time
accruals. The amount of leave employees are eligible to accrue is governed by
Memorandum of Understandings (MOUs), personnel contracts, and the Personnel
System Rules.
Analysis:
Each employee is required to record time worked and time off in official attendance
records that are recorded with payroll. Depending on the specifics of the governing MOU,
contract and Personnel System Rules, employees earn paid time off each year. As the
employee earns leave, it is accrued in an appropriate leave bank as leave hours. The
employee may take these hours off of work during the year and be paid for their regular
rate of pay for the hours, thus decreasing their leave bank hours. When an employee
leaves the City, they must also be paid for certain leave hours they have on the books.
What is paid off is governed by law, MOUs, Personnel System Rules and past practice.
If all City employees left the City on June 30, 2022, the total value of all leave accruals
eligible to be paid off would have been just under $2.4 million.
Vacation Accrual
Typically, the City’s vacation accrual balances ebb and flow with the economic tide. When
the economy is tight, fewer employees leave the City and thus there are fewer vacation
payouts, increasing the liability balance. As the economy perks up, employees take more
vacations and the vacation liability balance decreases. Affecting the leave balance to an
even greater extent is the tight staffing in each of the departments. Atascadero employees
are a loyal group of individuals and are dedicated to getting their work done. Because
staffing is tight, overtime budgets are tight and the work doesn’t go away, employees tend
to forgo taking time off. This increases the leave balances.
Leave Accrual Dollar Value of
Accrual
Vacation Leave $ 1,143,110
Holiday Leave 592,090
Administrative Leave 2,500
Sick Leave 438,960
Compensatory Time 211,530
TOTAL AMOUNT FUNDED $ 2,388,190
73
Starting with revisions to the Personnel System Rule in 2012, employees cease to
accumulate vacation once their accrued vacation balance has reached two times their
current annual accrual. This 2012 change to the vacation accrual policy requires that
employees take enough time off to avoid hitting the maximum accrual amount. This
practice has contained the long-term liability, and is healthier for the employee; but it does
not come without operational costs. The operational issue with this is that the work of the
vacationing employee doesn’t dissolve as the person vacations, and there is still the same
number of employees to get the work done. This often means overtime to cover the shift
or get the work done. Staff will continue to consider this effect as the new 2023-2025
budget is developed.
Vacation Accrual
at 6/30/22
$ 1,143,110
Holiday Accrual
There are similar staffing issues that result in increasing holiday pay accruals. Employees
receive 12 paid holidays per year (Fire receives 5.6 shifts per year). Some employees
are unable to take the holidays off when the holiday occurs due to the nature of their
position. Primarily, this is a function of the 24/7 scheduling of public safety. Employees
of both Police and Fire work regularly on holidays and accrue the paid time off. The MOU
between the City and the Police department allows employees to either take the time off
or to be paid off annually for the holiday time accrued. (Most eligible employees are paid
off annually and this amount in included in the police budget.) The MOU with the Fire
department does not include a similar annual payoff. Fire Department employees tend
to build up paid holiday time off as an alternative to causing the department to pay
overtime to backfill their shift. Gradually, the accruals build up. There is no maximum
cap for holiday accruals. The value of this accrued time is paid out to the employee upon
termination of employment. Hiring of a replacement employee has historically been
postponed until payroll savings on the vacancy is enough to cover the payout amount.
Fire Department
Holiday Accrual
at 6/30/22
Other
Departments
Holiday Accrual
at 6/30/22
Total Holiday
Accrual
at 6/30/22
$ 504,540 $ 87,550 $ 592,090
74
Administrative Leave Accrual
Administrative Leave is paid leave granted to certain positions that are exempt from
overtime. It is common practice to include administrative leave in compensation
packages for salaried positions. The employees in these positions usually work a
significant number of extra hours, and receive administrative leave as a benefit in lieu of
overtime that is typical of non-exempt employees. Administrative leave functions similar
to vacation time except that it is tracked separately and is carried over to the next fiscal
year only under specific conditions.
Administrative Leave
Accrual
at 6/30/22
$ 2,500
Sick Leave Accrual
Sick Leave is provided to employees to minimize the economic hardship that may result
from an unexpected personal or dependent illness or injury. It is accrued at the rate of
eight hours per month (12.01 for Fire personnel) without a maximum cap. Some
employee groups are eligible for an annual Stay Well Bonus that pays out a portion of the
employee’s sick leave accrual, at the employee’s option, up to an established maximum.
Additionally, some employee groups are eligible to receive up to one-half of the
employee’s accrued sick time paid out at termination. The City’s policy and practice
support an employee’s use of his/her entire sick leave accrual bank, as necessary, with
an appropriate verification documenting the illness or injury.
Total Sick Leave Accrual
at 6/30/22
$ 438,960
75
Compensatory Time Accrual
Non-exempt employees may choose to accumulate compensatory time instead of
receiving overtime pay. The compensatory time credit is computed at time and one-half.
The maximum hours non-exempt employees may accumulate is determined by the
employee’s MOU or Compensation Resolution. Compensatory time may be partially or
fully paid out at any time at the request of the employee or may be used as paid time off
in place of vacation or other similar paid leave. Compensatory time accrual is paid out to
the employee at termination.
Total Compensatory Time
Accrual
at 6/30/22
$ 211,530
Conclusion:
While the City’s leave accruals are real liabilities, they have different characteristics than
other long-term liabilities. As an employee terminates employment, the City pays out that
person’s leave liability. The City then has an option as to how quick to hire a replacement
employee for that position and can opt to hold off until sufficient salary savings has been
achieved to cover the outgoing employee’s payoff. Of course, this can also cause
operational issues, as the work does not go away. While often times a department is able
to move around shifts or workloads to minimize overtime while a replacement is recruited,
there is some level of service reduction during this period.
The City is a service organization and much of the General Fund is spent on labor. The
leave liability is a part of doing business. This is not a liability that we would expect to
have to payout all at once, but instead it’s a liability that grows and contracts by relatively
small amounts each year. The balance of the leave liability has often been closely tied
to the economy. As the economy booms, leave liability is used or paid off. Employees
take vacations when they can afford to go to nice places and as staffing is less of an
issue. Employees are also more mobile in a growing economy, not staying with the City
for long periods and thus taking earlier payoffs. It is projected that because of the recent
departures of several long-term employees and the implementation of the vacation policy,
that the liability will be contracting for the next few years.
76
Unfunded Infrastructure
There are other public asset maintenance costs that are not included in this section due
to the fact that they are not the responsibility of the City to maintain according to the
Atascadero Municipal Code. Instead, these assets are the responsibility of adjacent
property owners. Many property owners feel this is unfair, and care for these assets may
be worth consideration for City funding.
Property owners are often surprised to find out that sidewalks and street trees in the public
right of way are actually their responsibility. Property owners often assume the City takes
care of these items, so they do not perform repairs and maintenance. As a result, the
sidewalks and trees fall into a state of disrepair until a problem occurs and the property
owner and City are sued. A lot of staff time is spent to notice and explain this responsibility
to property owners and it takes funds to defend the City in lawsuits.
There are also over 30 miles of public streets in Atascadero that are not maintained by
the City but instead, by property owners that live on the street. Many of these streets
were never built to City standards, and others meet standards but were not accepted after
completion. These public roads are used like City maintained roads, but the burden to
maintain and repair them falls to adjacent property owners – who pay the same taxes as
those on City maintained roads.
There is also a Community Facility District that require some newer residential units to
pay an additional tax of about $780 each year to help offset that home’s impact to police,
fire, and parks. A proposed unit to be constructed that requires City Council approval for
the project will have to pay this additional tax, while other new units in projects that don’t
require City Council approval, and existing units do not need to pay the tax.
77
Wastewater
The Wastewater system is a significant part of the City’s infrastructure, but is excluded
from the analysis in this Section. The Public Works Department recently updated its
Wastewater Treatment Plant and Collection System Master Plans. From these studies,
the City’s current list of necessary Capital Improvement Projects and system upgrades
will be updated to meet changing State and Federal regulatory requirements, General
Plan modifications since the last master plan update in 2002 that will increase flows to
the sewer system, and new system collection and treatment deficiencies identified by staff
and consultants.
Wastewater collection and treatment involves year round, 24-hour per day energy
intensive and highly mechanical processes. Pumps and equipment are particularly
susceptible to frequent repair, reconditioning, and replacement. Pipes and manholes are
constantly exposed to highly corrosive liquids and gasses and have finite lifespans.
Currently, the City has a relatively simple and low cost treatment plant technology
compared to some other surrounding communities.
Future increased wastewater treatment plant technology is expensive as evidenced by
the recent Paso Robles Wastewater Treatment Plant upgrade that cost $50 million
dollars. The City is currently in the preliminary design stages for the Wastewater
Reclamation Facility upgrade project. A new treatment process will be required to meet
future wastewater flows as there is no additional area to expand the existing wastewater
pond system, and the pond system is incapable of meeting newly adopted State waste
discharge requirements. Preliminary estimates for a new wastewater treatment process
could range anywhere up to $75 million or more, depending upon treatment processes
required to meet discharge requirements.
The City’s current challenge is to maintain and operate what we have today, keep up with
the replacement costs of the equipment and facilities described above, and prepare for
future growth to build out as identified in the City’s General Plan. Staff recently completed
a fee study with a consultant to determine if and by how much those connection fees and
annual sewer fees may need to be adjusted. Based on the findings of that study, a rate
increase for sewer service charges and connection fees was approved to be phased in
over five years. This additional revenue puts the City in a good position to continue to
fund ongoing operations and maintenance while also planning for needed upgrades to
the wastewater system.
78
Summary
While the need for infrastructure reserves discussed in this section may seem daunting,
it is not unlike what other cities face. The nature of government, its accounting methods,
and citizens’ desire for services make the funding of long-term assets very difficult until it
becomes critical. Atascadero is ahead of the game by looking at these costs, analyzing
them bi-annually, and determining what the horizon looks like.
The City has made incredible strides toward funding long-term assets since 1997 when
the City did not have a financial plan and did not have a funding plan for any of its long-
term assets. At this time, vehicles and technology equipment are fully funded with
scheduled replacement of all assets, building reserve deficits have decreased, Measure
F-14 and the road program are in place and, along with SB1 funding, have made great
strides towards improving roads, and the immediate needs for equipment replacement
have been funded through grants, donations, Measure D-20, and other available funding.
79
Atascadero
Comprehensive Financial Strategy
April 2023
Section 5- Reserves
80
Reserves
RESERVES
WHAT ARE RESERVES?
City finances are comprised of various funds, which for legal purposes have to be
separated. For example, sewer charges are to be spent on maintaining and operating
the wastewater system and may not be used to hire police officers or firefighters. One
fund over which the Council may exercise considerable discretion is the General Fund.
General taxes and receipts are deposited into this fund and the Council decides on how
to spend these general revenues, whether it’s for police, fire, parks maintenance,
recreation services or other public services. (Of course restricted revenues such as
grants or fees for services are also deposited into the General Fund and the City must
ensure that these receipts are spent appropriately.) The City must cautiously guard its
General Fund to ensure that there are always adequate resources to provide critical
services to the public.
The term reserves is used quite universally in governmental finance. There are different
types of reserves, different purposes, and different legal restrictions on them. Essentially,
they are the collective amount of revenues in excess of expenses, or similar to what a
company might term retained earnings. Typically, the General Fund reserves are the
most carefully monitored as these are the most flexible and discretionary of all the funds.
In a pinch, however, there are reserves in other City funds that could legally be borrowed
if the City found it necessary.
General Fund reserves are often thought to be one indicator of the fiscal stability of an
organization. In the early 1990’s, the City of Atascadero had a negative General Fund
balance, forcing layoffs and service reductions in order to weather the storm. In fiscal year
1995, the collapse of the Orange County Investment Pool hit the City hard and the
General Fund reserves fell to an all-time low of $-790,360. At that time, the City’s audit
carried a going concern: in other words, the City’s finances were so bad that there was a
serious question of ongoing solvency. Around 1998, as the economy was starting to turn
around, Council adopted a fiscally conservative reserve policy and began to aggressively
go about building reserves in order to avoid history repeating itself.
The General Fund reserves are broken down into different components, each with
separate ramifications and costs. The Governmental Accounting Standards Board
(GASB) changed how fund balances are classified and reported effective June 30, 2011.
While the categories are similar, there are some differences. In the past, the Council,
through the budget process, would designate a portion of the fund balance to be used for
a specific purpose. This would show up as a designation in the financial statements.
Under current GASB guidelines, the Council may still designate a portion of the fund
balance for items such as roads, libraries, economic uncertainties, etc; however this has
no legal effect on the funds and thus does not show up in the fund balance designations.
The new fund balance (or reserve) designations are as follows:
81
Non-spendable- includes fund balance amounts that cannot be spent either because it
is not in spendable form or because of legal or contractual constraints. Because some
assets are not easily convertible to cash in a timely manner, the fund balance is
designated to show the portion that is non-spendable or can’t be spent within a timely
manner.
Restricted- includes fund balance amounts that are constrained for specific purposes
which are externally imposed by providers, such as creditors or amounts constrained due
to constitutional provisions or enabling legislation. For the City, these typically include
the fund balances of most other funds. For example the fund balance in the Circulation
System Impact Fees fund is constrained by state legislation (AB1600) which sets forth
specific criteria for collecting and expenditure of these funds. The use of the fund balance
is restricted.
Assigned- includes fund balance amounts that are constrained for specific purposes by
the City through formal action of the City Council and does not lapse at fiscal year end.
These amounts typically include encumbrances or amounts that Council has formally set
aside by resolution or contract.
Unassigned- includes positive fund balance within the General Fund which has not been
classified within the above mentioned categories and negative fund balances in other
governmental funds. These are funds that have not been earmarked for any specific
purpose and are available for Council discretionary spending.
WHAT IS THE CURRENT STATUS OF
RESERVES?
The City first adopted a Financial Strategy
in 1998 and the results of having such a
plan are clear. Over the years, the overall
strategy has consistently been to maintain
a conservative outlook by putting aside
reserves in good times and then using
those reserves during down periods to
achieve stable operations. By employing
this cautious strategy in the past, the City
has been able to remain fiscally stable
during revenue fluctuations and increases
in operational costs. The City has used reserves along with other fiscal strategies to
maintain services and ensure the City’s long-term financial viability.
As of June 30, 2022, the General Fund reserve balance, excluding Sales Tax Measure
F-14 activity, was about $21.1 million. During the 2021-2023 budget process, Council
continued to support using reserves annually in the short-term to close the gap between
Financial Strategy
YearsDollars
Expenses Revenues
82
projected revenues and expenses, with the long-term goal of building up the reserves
again.
In addition to General Fund reserves, it is equally as important to understand which other
accounts there might be within the City that are legally accessible to the General Fund in
order to meet its operational needs. There are two other sources of potential funds that
could be considered. The first is the internal service account replacement funds and the
second is unspent funds transferred to the Capital Projects Fund for road replacement.
Internal Service Account Replacement Funds - The City also has amounts set aside
for replacement of vehicles, equipment, buildings and technology. The City has the legal
right to transfer these funds back to the General Fund; however, it is not necessarily
prudent to do so. Historically, the City has put away amounts annually so that as vehicles,
computers, software and buildings become old and no longer function, the City has funds
to replace them. These funds are legally available to transfer back to the General Fund;
however, it does not change the time frame that roofs will have to be replaced or software
will no longer be supportable. The City had just under $9.9 million in unrestricted net
position in the internal services funds as of June 30, 2022.
Unspent Capital Project Road Funds – In past budgets, the City Council approved
transferring City General Funds to the Capital Projects Funds for road projects. While
many road projects were accomplished with the transferred funds, approximately
$224,000 of these funds remain unspent. They are a good source of matching funds for
capital grants related to projects within the five year capital improvement program;
however, they are also available to be transferred back to the City’s General Fund if the
Council chose to do so instead.
WHAT SHOULD OUR RESERVES BE?
The Adoption of Reserve Policies in California Cities by Anita Lawrence asked “What is
the amount of fiscally prudent reserve? How much would be enough to cover certain
events and develop a sense of security for the organization and the community? At what
level would the constituency begin to question it as too much? What is the risk tolerance
of the organization and the community? What criteria should be used to make that
decision?” There is no easy answer to these questions. Anita’s research showed that
“…if you asked 100 city finance professionals these questions, very few would provide
the same mix of answers. The elements that are right for one city are entirely wrong for
another.”
The real question is: What is the right amount of reserves for the City of Atascadero, both
at this point in time and for the foreseeable future? In order to formulate a reserve policy,
it is important to answer the following:
1. State of the Economy
2. The level of diversity in General Fund revenues
3. The stability of the revenue base
4. Potential actions of State and Federal agencies
83
5. Cash flow needs
6. Costs of potential natural disasters and emergencies
7. Asset replacement requirements
8. The consistency desired in service levels
9. Available opportunities
10. Needs of future commitments
11. Interest income earned on reserves
Measurement #1 – State of the Economy
In the City’s reserve strategy, the largest driver of what should be done with reserves is
the state of the economy. Are we in an economic boom?- if so we should be putting away
reserves for a rainy day. Are we in a severe recession?- if so, we should be using those
reserves to stabilize services and the
organization. Are we in a period of
recovery?- if so we may still need
reserves to stabilize services, but we
need to be looking to the future to ensure
that reserves will last. Are we in a stable
period of flat growth?- if so, we should
neither add to, nor use reserves. Our
simple reserve strategy graph tells us
what action we should take. So the
question becomes, where are we on the
graph? Is the economy booming,
busting, recovering or somewhere in
between?
Prior to COVID-19, the nation was in its longest expansion in history. Beacon Economics
reported, based on their research and analysis of the data, that the pandemic-induced
recession began at the height of the economy in February 2020, and then hit bottom in
April 2020, and has been on the rebound since. It has been reported as the deepest and
shortest cycle ever.
The economy was impacted by a combination of events that, taken together, increased
inflation. COVID shutdowns caused interruptions in the global supply chain,
manufacturing, shipping, and retail sectors, which sharply reduced the availability of
products for consumers. Along with that, the Federal Government provided pandemic
stimulus funds to households and businesses throughout the country. Product availability
was tight, travel was restricted, and entertainment experiences were shut down. Many
consumers found themselves with money to spend and nothing to buy. According to the
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal savings rates reached a high of 33.8% in
April 2020, a significantly higher savings rate than the more typical 5% - 10%.
Financial Strategy
YearsDollars
Expenses Revenues
X
84
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Saving Rate [PSAVERT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT, March 23, 2023.
This pent-up demand from consumers with high
savings accounts and a desire to buy products
and experiences largely contributed to the
brevity of the COVID-induced recession. The
strong demand for consumer goods forced
prices up. The high prices and the consistent
demand pushed up spending. This caused
inflation to increase at a fast pace. Inflation is a
measure, or an index, of the increase cost in
goods over a specific period and is used as a
measure of how the economy is doing. Often
when inflation is high, purchasing power is
reduced as wages don’t typically increase at the
same rate. Untamed inflation can lead to a
recession.
85
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (the measure
of inflation) for the cost of all items went all the way up to 9.1% in June 2022, before
falling.
To avoid runaway
inflation, actions are
taken at a federal level to
try to keep it at a
“reasonable” level. Enter
the Federal Reserve
System (also known as
the Fed). This is the
Central Bank of the U.S.
and one of its key
functions is to promote
the health of the U.S.
economy and the
stability of the nation’s
financial system. The
Fed tries to reduce
inflation when it is
growing too quickly, and
stimulate it when it is too
sluggish. To that end, the Fed increased the federal funds rate nine times in the span of
about the last year.
Increasing the federal funds rate increases the rates that banks pay to borrow money.
The banks, in turn, pass on these higher interest rates to their customers. This drives up
the cost of consumer borrowing for things like real estate, vehicles, and credit card
balance rates. This is based on the theory that as it is more expensive to purchase goods,
FOMC Meeting Date Rate Change (bps)Federal Funds Rate
March 22, 2023 +25 4.75% to 5.00%
Feb 1, 2023 +25 4.50% to 4.75%
Dec 14, 2022 +50 4.25% to 4.50%
Nov 2, 2022 +75 3.75% to 4.00%
Sept 21, 2022 +75 3.00% to 3.25%
July 27, 2022 +75 2.25% to 2.50%
June 16, 2022 +75 1.50% to 1.75%
May 5, 2022 +50 0.75% to 1.00%
March 17, 2022 +25 0.25% to 0.50%
Fed Rate Hikes 2022-2023: Taming Inflation
Interest
Rates
86
spending will decline. When spending declines, demand declines, and eventually, so will
the prices of goods. This is turn is expected to tame inflation. This method is not without
risk, of course. Increasing the rate too fast or in combination with other influential factors
has the potential to tip the economy into a recession.
Overall, many economists believe that inflation has peaked and will gradually continue to
descend. Below are some inflation projections from a cross section of economists.
In addition to the impacts that inflation has on the economy, the economy is also
influenced by the health of the nation’s banking system. The American people became
wary of this system after the recent collapse of some large banks. Many banks are
struggling as higher interest rates knock down the value of their investments, while
contending with worries that skittish customers could try to withdraw their money all at
once if there is concern about the bank’s solvency.
State regulators and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) stepped in during
March 2023 to take charge of two large banks, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.
Most deposits up to $250,000 at covered institutions are insured by the FDIC and this
provides a level of confidence for average depositors. According to a joint statement
issued on March 12, 2023 by the Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and the
FDIC, “The U.S. banking system remains resilient and on a solid foundation, in large part
due to reforms that were made after the financial crisis that ensured better safeguards for
the banking industry.” The stock market has since stabilized and there doesn’t currently
appear to be any extreme long-term negative impacts to the economy as a result of the
recent failures. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated that the U.S. banking system
remains sound and that the recent bank failures are different from the massive bank
failures that occurred in 2008 because in 2008, there were an underlying solvency issues
and today’s failures are due to fear of solvency issues rather than actual solvency-based
issues.
The bottom line is that current economic indicators, while they may have their temporary
ups and down, are steadily trending upward. A deceleration in growth is expected in
2023/24. Fiscal year 2024/25 is expected to pick up additional steam, and then the
following years are expected to be back to a steadier growth rate. However, concerns
continue to linger regarding a number of issues:
Inflation project from the point of view of:Projection:
Federal Reserve Inflation peaked in 2022, and will decline in 2023, but will not
return to its 2% target until 2025.
Morgan Stanley Inflation peaked in 2022's fourth quarter.
World Economic Forum Inflation rates will deline to 6.5% in 2023 to 4.1% in 2024
Goldman Sachs Core PCR inflation will fall from 5% in 2023 to 3% year-over-year.
Beacon Economics Inflation peaked in 2022, and will continue to cool, but will
remain higher than normal for at least two years.
87
• How will changes to inflation impact consumer confidence?
• Will the Federal Reserve be able to cool inflation without inciting a recession?
• What changes are in store due to the upcoming elections in 2024 and current and future
political polarization?
• What impact will global unrest have on the economy?
• Will the high cost of housing be a deterrent to labor force growth and limit business
development?
• Will local businesses be able to sustain their customers in light of the low unemployment
rate, especially in the entry-level jobs sector?
• How will the recent weather events impact the city and the statewide economy?
These issues that may influence the economy are all important points to watch and
consider as the City moves into the new budget cycle.
Measurement #2 – Level of Diversity in General Fund Revenue
One measurement to quantify an appropriate level of reserves concerns how broad a
range of General Fund revenues the City receives and what the future holds for such
revenue. Some cities have a very broad range of General Fund revenues not associated
with fees. For example, Pismo Beach and Morro Bay enjoy a large amount of transient
occupancy taxes (hotel tax). Other cities, such as Grover Beach and San Luis Obispo,
have a utility user tax. This is a percentage of the cost of all utilities used by citizens of
those cities, including gas, electric, phone, cable TV, and even those cities’ own utilities
of water, sewer, and garbage.
This table shows General Fund revenue by type for Atascadero as compared to other
cities in the county:
88
Cities with fewer sources of General Fund
revenue will require a greater amount in
reserves in order to successfully weather
a downturn in one revenue area. This is
true for the City of Atascadero. Excluding
the impact of the $3.6 million ARPA
payment, property-based taxes
accounted for 35% of General Fund
revenues in fiscal year 2021/22, with
sales tax accounting for an additional
35%. These two revenues sources alone
account for 70% of the City’s General
Fund revenues. In the graph above, you
can compare this to the revenue base of
other cities which have different make-
ups.
One reserve methodology dictates that reserve levels should be tied to the broadness of
General Fund tax revenues sources. The greater number of revenue sources require
fewer layers of reserves. Conversely, the fewer number of revenue sources require
higher levels of reserves. As Atascadero’s property tax and sales tax revenues comprise
$22.6 million of the $32.5 million in General Fund revenues (excluding ARPA), the City is
defined as having a narrow base of revenue-just two significant categories.
Measurement #3 – Stability of Revenue Base
As discussed above, General Fund revenues (excluding Measure F-14 revenues and
one-time ARPA funds) for fiscal year 2021/22 were $32.5 million. Due to effects from
COVID-19, sales tax and TOT revenue were abnormally low in fiscal year 2019/20. These
reductions were partially offset by two one-time revenues (PG&E Settlement agreement
in the amount of $783,106 and CARES Act funds in the amount of $123,706), included
as “other revenue” for this discussion. In a typical year, about 70%-75% percent of
General Fund revenue (excluding Measure F-14 revenues) comes from taxes, with the
balance coming from fees, grants, and other sources. The fees and grants pay for specific
services or projects. To examine the tax base more closely, it is helpful to break it down
further. Property tax usually comprises about 30%-35% of the revenues, sales tax
typically about 30%-35%, TOT is generally about 6%, other taxes about 6%, development
costs and other fees for services usually about 12% and other revenues/interfund charges
make up the remainder.
Property tax is considered to be one of the more stable sources of revenue. Historically
the property tax revenues have two components: (1) a stable base that does not vary
drastically from year to year and (2) a housing market expansion and correction
component.
89
While there is a stable underlying base, this revenue does vary with the strength of the
housing market. The table below shows property tax per capita on a constant dollar basis.
The constant dollar smooths out changes for normal inflation so that we can see if we are
better off than we were in 1987 or worse.
In California in the late 80’s/early 90’s and then again in the mid-2000’s, the housing
market did not follow normal inflation. Housing prices and new construction boomed,
causing spikes in the property tax revenue base, followed by a smoothing or flat period.
Overall the smooth or flat period of revenue is the stable portion of the revenue base and
is what the City can count on year after year. The spikes are periods of boom where
there are opportunities for the City to sock away reserves and address one-time fixes. It
appears that the real estate market has generally corrected itself since the Great
Recession, as we are seeing signs of strong residential demand in the properties and
limited supply. It is reasonable to assume that we are now again in the gentle growth
period where the entire property tax base is considered very stable. There remains some
question regarding the impact of the high inflation and interest rates on real estate.
Demand for residential properties in the Central Coast area appears to remain strong for
the time being. Commercial and industrial property is slower to rebound from the impact
of the pandemic, but Atascadero continues to see robust economic development
including both residential and commercial.
90
It is also interesting to
compare Atascadero’s
property tax per capita with
other cities in the county. The
chart to the right shows that
our community has the lowest
per capita property tax in the
county according to fiscal year
2022/23 budgeted figures. It
is true that in this county, each
city has its own unique
characteristics which often
make it hard to do
comparisons. Even with that
in mind, however, this chart
does make one thing painfully
clear. Atascadero has less
money per person to spend on essential functions such as public safety and parks that
are critical to citizens of the community. In other words, the relative strength of our dollars
per capita is not as good as that of our neighbors.
Sales tax is much more susceptible than property tax to fluctuations in the economy.
During fiscal year 2021/22, 30% of General Fund revenues came from sales tax (if one-
time ARPA funds are excluded, this figure is 35%). There are about 1,000 business
outlets that report sales tax within the City of Atascadero, however, the top 25 businesses
account for about 57% of the sales tax revenue. The City’s sales tax is currently heavily
reliant on the continued health of the top 25 businesses listed in Attachment B- HDL’s
City of Atascadero Sales Tax Update Q3 2022.
The following chart depicts sales tax per capita, constant dollar, over the last 35 years.
Like property tax, it too shows evidence of the ebbs and flows of the market, but to a
greater extent. Atascadero started experiencing an increase in this revenue after a new
retailer came on line in fiscal year 2000/01, but then a sharp decrease with the loss of two
new car dealerships. The good news is that Measure D-20 is making a big impact as the
graph below shows for fiscal year 2021/22. The City is also seeing overall growth, in good
part due to the planned development throughout the City and the aggressive economic
development policies of the City Council.
91
There are also a few external driving factors that influenced recent sales tax revenue. The
COVID-19 pandemic with its uncertainty, social distancing, stay-at-home orders, travel
restrictions, and unemployment affected the purchasing patterns of consumers. Shifts
occurred throughout the economy’s different business types; some getting hit hard and
some seeing large gains. Fortunately, most of the industries have recovered since the
beginning of the pandemic. With the contraction of the economy in 2020, we would expect
to see a corresponding dip in the graph above. However, at the same time the pandemic
was occurring, the City’s sales tax revenue was positively influenced by the increase in
“pool” revenue as a result of Assembly Bill 147 (AB 147).
AB 147, also known as the Wayfair Decision, requires that online retailers meeting a
certain volume of in-state sales collect and remit sales tax on those sales effective April
1, 2019. In addition, AB 147 also compels “marketplace facilitators” to collect and remit
sales tax on behalf of their sellers beginning October 1, 2019. Sales tax collections
resulting from AB 147 are put into the county-wide and state-wide pools, and
proportionately allocated to each agency. In fiscal year 2021/22, pool related sales tax
revenue in Atascadero increased about 7.4% over the prior year and made up about 16%
of the City’s total Bradley-Burns sales tax revenue.
Measurement #4 – Potential Actions of Federal and State Agencies or Public Policy
When the State faced fiscal challenges in the early 1990’s it simply transferred property
tax revenues from cities and counties in effect to itself (known as the ERAF I & II shifts).
In addition, the State reduced funding for counties, and in turn allowed counties to recoup
these lost revenues by charging cities for services such as collection of property taxes
and booking people into county jail. In the late 1990s, the State was in very good financial
position and desired to give constituents a tax break. The State did this by reducing one
City revenue (VLF) and promising to backfill it with a different one. Proposition 1A was
approved by California voters in 2004. Proposition 1A is an amendment to the state
constitution intended to restore predictability and stability to local government budgets by
strengthening prohibitions against unfunded state mandates and state take-aways of city
92
funds. This legislation certainly made strides to protect local funding, however, the state
continued to search for ways around the new law. For example, in 2012, in spite of the
passage of Proposition 1A, the State eliminated Redevelopment Agencies.
As a subdivision of the State, the City is still vulnerable to continued increased costs due
to added regulations and shifting of costs. Unfunded mandates are becoming more
typical and apply to regulations concerning water, storm water, housing, homelessness,
pollution, employment, reporting/transparency, and law enforcement, just to name a few.
The newly adopted Surplus Land Act requires that all local agencies offer surplus land for
affordable home developers first before selling the land to any others. Other housing-
related pieces of legislation have removed many aspects of local control for cities
statewide, and impacts the City’s decisions for economic development and policy.
Additionally, propositions that are passed by the taxpayers can often have a fiscal impact
on the City. Propositions 47 (2014) and 57 (2016) changed laws related to public safety
and while these propositions reduce costs to the State Corrections system, they increase
local law enforcement costs.
The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) projects the state coffers will see reduced
revenues in 2022/23, and then will see flat revenue in the following two years. At the same
time, the LAO predicts that the state faces a $24 billion budget shortfall for 2023/24, and
ongoing deficits in future years. Especially with the state lawmakers trying to make ends
meet for the state budget, the City’s financial well-being continues to be vulnerable to
political action.
Measurement #5 – Cash Flows Needs
The cash flow needs of the City have a direct bearing on the amount of reserves needed.
Unlike many private organizations and businesses with a steady cash stream, the City
receives large portions of its annual revenues in chunks, twice a year. The fiscal year
begins in July and ends in June. During the summer months, the City incurs more
expenses for fire reserves, recreation programs, and capital projects than during other
months of the year. However, the City does not receive its first fiscal year injection of
property tax until late December, and then waits to receive the rest in late April. In other
words, the City’s general fund receipts go down from April through November while the
City’s disbursements go up during the same period.
93
At the current rate of continued use of General Fund reserves, the General Fund is not
anywhere near having a negative cash balance. However, in the event the economy has
another severe and prolonged downturn that further depletes the General Fund reserves,
the City does have a couple of fairly simple options at its disposal.
1. The City overall does NOT have a cash flow issue. The citywide cash and
investments balance on hand at June 30, 2022 was about $62.9 million and the
lowest cash balance in the last five years was $33.8 million.
The City’s General Fund can borrow funds from other available funds within the
City. The City has almost 40 funds in total. Some funds, such as the internal
service funds mentioned previously, are not restricted at all and may be loaned or
94
transferred back to the General Fund at Council’s direction. Other funds may have
legal restrictions on how they can be spent. The restricted funds, however, may
be loaned to other funds as long as they receive at least the same interest as they
would’ve received without the loan, and the loan does not interfere with the
purpose of the funds (i.e. the monies are not slated to be spent prior to the payback
period). The City does have many funds available to loan, especially for the very
short period (2 – 3 months). As always, borrowing funds does not come without
concerns. Prior to any borrowing, projections of incoming funds and the ability to
pay back should be evaluated and assessed.
2. As of June 30, 2022, the General Fund had over $243,000 in loans that it had
made to other funds. Typically loans to other funds are made for expenditures
purposefully made in advance of receiving the revenues. This may be for a grant,
where the funds must spend funds first and then be reimbursed, or it may be for
impact fees, where the Council decides to build a specific project now in order to
benefit future development, and then collects the funds as development occurs.
These loans have historically been from the General Fund as it has had available
funds on hand. Council could determine that these loans would be more
appropriate from different funds, thus paying the General Fund back its cash.
3. Historically, the City was one of many cities that issued Tax Revenue Anticipation
Notes or TRANs to cover annual General Fund cash shortfalls. The TRANs were
issued through the California Statewide Communities Development Authority.
Because the TRANs were tax free issuances and the funds were needed for just
a short period of the year, it was an opportunity for the City to cover the short period
of negative cash, and earn interest on the funds for the rest of the year. The City
was not allowed to participate in the TRANs issuance once it had positive General
Fund cash flow throughout the year.
Ideally the City General Fund would have enough cash on hand to cover the annual cash
ebbs and flows; however the City does have options for these annual fluctuations. A
much harder look must be taken though, when the annual negative cash balance is no
longer annual, but instead a long-term loan. It would not be consistent with Council’s
conservative fiscal policy to allow reserves to fall so low that interfund loans are not paid
back within the fiscal year. While the current seven year projection does not anticipate
such an occurrence, it is something that must be monitored.
Measurement #6 – Potential Natural Disasters or Emergencies
Atascadero is subject to potential natural disasters including earthquakes, floods, fires,
major auto and train accidents, and hazardous materials spills. Pandemic should now be
added to the list of emergency situations. The 2003 San Simeon Earthquake, the current
2023 and 2017 storms, and the COVID-19 pandemic are all proof these events can and
will occur in Atascadero. City staff are well trained in responding to emergencies and
meeting the needs of the community. Any natural disaster or emergency will undoubtedly
cause unbudgeted expenditures, fortunately however, in the event of a declared disaster,
agencies such as FEMA and CalOES provide assistance to help the City recover. The
95
funding received from these agencies are typically reimbursement funds; in other words,
the City spends the funds and then requests reimbursement. The City was recently
reimbursed about $371,000 in CARES Act reimbursement funds for expenditures related
to the response to COVID-19, and received about $7.2 million in the Federal American
Rescue Plan Act, Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds to provide
additional financial relief in the wake of the COVID pandemic. The City is also actively
working with FEMA and CalOES for reimbursements of 2023 storm-related costs.
In the event of a disaster or emergency, the number one priority of the City must be to
respond to the emergency and protect the community. When looked at as a whole, the
City has ample cash on hand to respond to an emergency until assistance funds could
be received. It may mean once the emergency is over and the accounting done, that the
General Fund cash is low and it had to borrow from other funds, but the Council’s higher
priority to ensure the safety of its citizens was attained.
The City is fully insured against property damage and liability claims. Additionally,
Atascadero is very aggressive in applying for all applicable grants, when available,
particularly to pay for the cost of responding to emergency situations.
Measurement #7 – Asset Replacement Requirements
The City of Atascadero owns large amounts of assets that have lives longer than a year
such as buildings, infrastructure, technology, and vehicles. Council began back in the
late 1990’s putting money into the reserves for many of these items so they could be
replaced as needed. While not all of these assets reserves are fully funded, many of
those that most directly affect community service levels have been funded. These include
technology and vehicles. Asset replacement reserves have been evaluated in Section 4
of this report. See Section 4 for more detail on this subject.
Measurement #8 – Service Level Consistency
Another issue to consider is how important it is to the organization and residents that
services levels are consistently maintained. Looking back more than two decades ago,
this was a key concern. A less fiscally conservative policy was in effect during that time,
and when the economy became sluggish, reserves were insufficient to carry the City
through the tight times. Services were cut. Many families had to seek alternate sources
for youth recreational activities. Parks and Public Safety services were at a bare
minimum. Employees were laid off. The few employees that remained to run the City
were overworked and frustrated. Morale was at an all-time low. Recruitment during the
recovery period was difficult at best.
Fortunately, as the Council put the fiscal sustainability policy in place, things began to
turn around. This strategy of putting aside reserves in good times and then using those
reserves during down periods to achieve stable operations has allowed the City to
maintain fairly consistent operations. Instead of burdening the ongoing operations budget
with significant new purchases and programs when times were good, the Council kept
96
level heads and tucked away some extra funds. As the economy started to turn south,
instead of cutting programs and staff to uncomfortable levels, Council was again able to
maintain services to the public by utilizing some of the reserves that were saved up. The
ability to maintain level and consistent services is important to consider when evaluating
reserve levels.
Maintaining a service level consistency is even more of a delicate balance when there is
an expansion of revenue due to growth in the economy or a new revenue source such as
the new Sales Tax Measure D-20. The wants of the citizens, employees and other
constituents are immediate. Over the years with very constricted revenues, people
understood why services may have been somewhat minimized. Now that there is a new
revenue source, it is a natural reaction to want service levels to improve. Things are
better; the City is receiving more revenue, so services should be better. However, the
cornerstone of the fiscal policy is to set aside money in good times for use in bad times
so that service levels remain constant. This means that in the bad times, while the City
did cut back where possible, in most areas, the service levels remained constant. In
addition, many “hidden” expenses were going completely unfunded. The City was
providing services at a level higher than revenues could afford, and budgets didn’t allow
to put funds away for replacement of assets like storm drains, equipment, and buildings.
Since the start of Measure D-20, some, but not all, of these assets are now being funded.
The issue of how to fund more of these hidden costs will be a topic for the upcoming
budget cycle. While the next two years will bring higher revenues than the City has
historically had, there remains a high level of needed funding that well exceeds even the
more enhanced revenues.
Measurement #9 – Available Opportunities
Previous Councils have wanted the flexibility to take advantage of opportunities as they
arose, and used reserves at times as a tool to achieve such goals. Beginning with the
economic downturn and since then, the focus was directed not at new programs or
services, but ways to improve and streamline existing programs, improve services to
better serve the public, promote economic development, and attract businesses and
visitors in an even more efficient manner. Available reserves can be used for these
opportunities. Alternatively, if it makes fiscal sense, financing can be another option to
achieve identified goals or pursue opportunities.
Measurement #10 – Needs of Future Commitments
It is important to consider the City’s future commitments when discussing reserves. The
City has made financial obligations that will affect future budget cycles. There are several
projects and future expenses including those such as the Downtown Infrastructure
Enhancement Project, the General Plan Update, the Broadband Enhancement Project,
and the City’s CalPERS Unfunded Accrued Liability (employee retirement obligations).
97
The City renewed its commitment toward the Council’s three priority goals, and will
continue to build the 2023/25 budget cycle around these same key goals that have been
reaffirmed from the prior budget cycle:
1. Economic and Community Vibrancy
2. Fiscal and Infrastructure Efficiency and Sustainability
3. Ensuring Public Safety and Providing Exceptional City Services
Measurement #11 – Interest Income Earned on Reserves
The City’s reserve policy is in place to provide guidelines for the prudent investment of
the City’s temporary idle cash. Investing the City’s temporary idle cash to earn interest
income will enhance the economic status of the City. Reserves provide an opportunity to
further increase investment income for the City that will fund important services to
residents.
Looking at the Big Picture
Eleven criteria have been analyzed in order to ascertain what constitutes a prudent
reserve for the City of Atascadero. While each of these is an important measurement,
they should not be looked at individually but instead as a whole. They must also be
considered within the framework of the financial picture for the entire organization rather
than just the General Fund.
If each reserve was to be considered individually, it might be recommended that the City
reserve 10% of sales tax in case a major sales tax provider closes its doors, plus three
months’ worth of expenditures for natural disasters, plus $4 million for annual cash flow
needs, plus $2 million on hand just in case an opportunity comes up, etc. Each item listed
is an individual event, and, in theory, could all happen at the same time, but the risk of
that happening is minimal. It would be irresponsible to the residents to keep the
cumulative amount of what would otherwise be prudent individual reserves. These are
funds that could be used to fund City services. Instead, as looked at above, it is sensible
to analyze each potential use of reserves and determine what risk and use level is
acceptable to the City and what other options are available.
As of June 30, 2022, the City’s General Fund had a reserve balance (excluding Sales
Tax Measure F-14 funds) of $21 million, and fiscal year 2022/23 is estimated to be just
under $24 million. Some of this heightened reserve amount is due to receipt of one-time
revenues such as $7.2 million in American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) funds, $783,000 in
Senate Bill 1090 (SB 1090), the addition of Sales Tax Measure D-20 revenue, and a
series of fiscal years with one-time savings. There is often a timing difference between
when the revenues are received and when the projects are funded. In the interim period,
the funds are included in the General Fund reserve balance. For example, the $7.2 million
in APRA funds is included in revenue, half in fiscal year 2021/22 and the other half in
fiscal year 2022/23. These funds are included in expenses for the Downtown
Infrastructure Enhancement Project in fiscal years 2023/24 and 2024/25, and therefore,
98
those funds are included in the General Fund reserve balance for the interim period.
Similarly, Council authorized the use of the City’s SB 1090 funds (received for economic
stimulus for the closure of Pacific Gas and Electric’s Diablo Canyon Power Plant) to
establish a Deputy Community Development Director- Economic Development and Long-
Range Planning position, and the Broadband Enhancement Project. Spending those
funds requires using reserves, since the SB 1090 funds are being held in with the other
reserve funds. Additionally, encumbrances and approved capital projects not spent in
that one year are carried forward to the next fiscal year. This also includes unspent
Measure D-20 funds. Staff estimates that about $2.2 million of budgeted Measure D-20
funds weren’t spent as expected in fiscal year 2021/22, and as a result, those funds are
also included in the General Fund reserve balance. About $580,000 of this is a one-time
savings, and the remainder are timing differences that will be spent on projects such as
the new dispatch system, the Radio Repeater Project, the Fire Station #1 Replacement
Project, and the Parks Infrastructure Replacement Project. All this is to say that while the
General Fund reserve balance is higher than usual, it also includes funding for many
projects that have been committed to but not yet spent.
The Seven Year Projection shows a Net Income of $1,004,000 in 2023/24 and
($3,299,000) in 2024/25. The large negative in 2024/25 reflects timing differences for
some larger projects, as discussed above. Fiscal year 2024/25 includes about $5.2 million
in funding for the Downtown Infrastructure Project, however, this amount of revenue was
received in a prior period and held in the General Fund reserve for this project.
99
The five future years in the outlook period are expected to have positive net incomes. The
General Fund reserve balance in dollars in depicted in the following graph:
The financial policy has worked for the City in the past, and if we stick to it, it appears that
it will work through this next financial planning horizon. Current projections show that
using current assumptions and strategies in place, reserves will not fall below $22 million
in the forecast period. Reserves as a percentage of General Fund expenditures stay
strong as well, and are in alignment with Council’s reserve policy. In prior strategic
planning sessions, the Council agreed that it was critical to maintain service levels and
felt that it was prudent to cut a little bit deeper into reserves with the mindset to turn to
building reserves again as soon as possible. The organization is on target to start building
reserves again for the future while being ready to take advantage of opportunities
including those that are now possible with Sales Tax Measure D-20 revenue. The general
financial plan laid out in the Seven Year Projection ensures that we are not borrowing
against our future and that there are sufficient reserves on hand to address the needs of
the City throughout this downturn and recovery.
100
Summary
It is important that the City maintain an appropriate level of reserves. The fiscal strategy
has been an effective tool to keep the City in a respectable financial position. Council
has agreed that reserves should not drop below 20% of General Fund expenses.
Through careful planning and many years of belt tightening through the worst of it, this
continues to be an achievable goal. While it will take continued effort to balance the
increase in the revenues with the many needs, overall, the City is likely in the best position
in its history. Staff will continue to monitor actual figures as they come in and compare
them to the projected numbers. With consistent monitoring, the Council has been, and
will continue to be, alert and effective leaders guiding and supporting the City toward a
prosperous and flourishing future.
101
Atascadero
Comprehensive Financial Strategy
April 2023
Section 6- Policies
102
Review of Fiscal Policies
The budget document allocates City resources such as personnel, materials, and
equipment in tangible ways to achieve the general goals of the community. It is prudent,
therefore, for the City to have in place fiscal policies and practices to guide the City
Manager and City Council through the budget decision-making process. These policies
and practices are:
Operational Efficiencies:
Implement and practice ongoing operational efficiencies to the extent reasonable;
Seek and consider opportunities to reduce future operating and maintenance costs,
including energy costs and vehicle maintenance, even when some additional up-front
investment may be required;
Enter into joint operating arrangements with other organizations so as to provide
services more cost effectively;
Continue the use of valuable volunteers.
Staffing:
Continue to have the Department Head team evaluate key personnel needs of the
City. A supplemental request is submitted by each Department Head for staffing
needs within the department, and these are evaluated, discussed and prioritized.
Tough decisions are made as part of the budget process based on Council priorities,
safety concerns, and work volume changes;
Utilize private contractors when the same or higher level of service can be obtained
at lower total cost;
Utilize consultants and temporary help instead of hiring staff for special projects or
peak workload periods.
Attract and retain competent employees by providing a professional work
environment, competitive salaries, safe working conditions, and adequate training
opportunities;
Base salary increases on individual merit and job performance levels;
Strive toward maintaining competitive compensation packages in order to recruit and
maintain the best and the brightest;
Work toward adequate staffing for the service levels being provided;
Be aware of and plan for state, federal and OSHA mandates which might have an
effect on staffing levels;
Be aware of, monitor and avoid the “hidden” costs of employee turnover, burnout, and
stress due to overwork;
Look for staff-level streamline opportunities and reductions in areas where there will
be minimal impacts to citizens, thus “freeing” employee time.
103
Education and Communication:
Dissemination of important financial information to staff through City Manager
roundtables, meetings, emails, and other means of communication;
Dissemination of user-friendly annual reports on sales tax measures to residents and
local business owners;
Encourage employee ideas for efficiency, reduction in costs, or increases in revenues;
Provide Council and public with information regarding the City’s financial outlook
through both the audit and budget process, and continue to update with any changes
that occur.
Economic Development:
Provide a climate that encourages healthy commercial areas that capture more of the
purchasing power of the community and creates more destination commercial
activities to capture regional money;
Aggressively pursue new developments and businesses which are consistent with the
community’s quality of life and add to the City’s economic base, particularly those that
generate sales tax revenue or provide head of household jobs;
Promote a mix of businesses that contributes to a balanced community;
Continue to improve programs to enhance and retain existing businesses;
Continue the promotion and tourism programs as a key component of the economic
development strategy.
Community Development:
Ensure that adequate funding is in place to provide essential services to new residents
without diluting services for existing residents by:
o Supporting the Community Facilities District to fund the addition of essential
police, fire and parks personnel needed to provide services to these new
households;
o Continue, to the fullest extent possible, annexing projects into the Community
Facilities District by requiring all residential projects consisting of five or more
residential units to annex into the Community Facilities District;
o Discontinue the use of Assessment Districts in lieu of Homeowner’s Associations
or other similar mechanisms required of new development to provide ongoing
revenue source for the maintenance of development-related infrastructure. These
Homeowner’s Associations or other mechanisms would be privately managed to
avoid City staff time otherwise required by Assessment Districts.
Require that new developments contribute toward the expansion of facilities and
infrastructure necessary to serve the expanding population;
Plan community growth with service and maintenance funding requirements in mind.
104
Infrastructure:
Fully fund technology replacement funds;
Work toward fully funding vehicles, equipment, buildings, and other infrastructure;
Continue to determine and implement strategies to reduce the current backlog of
deferred maintenance projects;
Provide vitally important maintenance each year to avoid increasing the deferred
maintenance backlog;
Determine a maintenance plan and funding strategy prior to the construction,
improvement or acceptance of new infrastructure.
New Services:
New or expanded programs should only be added when a new funding source has
been developed or when an equal or greater cost program has been eliminated;
Require agreements for specific services and monitor effectiveness on an ongoing
basis.
Construction of New Facilities:
Plan for new facilities only if construction and maintenance costs will not negatively
impact the operating budget.
Cash Investment:
Follow adopted Investment Policy guidelines for the prudent investment of City funds
not required for the immediate needs of the City;
Maximize the efficiency of the City’s cash management system;
Enhance the economic status of the City while protecting its pooled cash.
Fiscal Management:
Maintain appropriate reserve levels;
Consider the long-term and the short-term when making financial decisions;
Continuously monitor operations and make adjustments as necessary;
Take full advantage of opportunities to receive reimbursement funding at maximum
rates possible;
Generate additional revenue by marketing City services to other agencies on a
contract basis;
Maximize revenues by utilizing grants from other agencies to the fullest extent
possible;
105
Charge fees for services that reflect the true cost of providing such services and review
fee schedules on a regular basis;
Fully account for the cost of enterprise operations to avoid any subsidy by the General
Fund and to charge all enterprise funds their fair share of the cost of City support
services;
Maintain accurate accounting records to keep the City Manager, City Council and
public informed of the financial condition of the City at all times;
Think outside of the box to achieve revenue opportunities that wouldn’t otherwise
exist;
Consider partnerships and taxing opportunities when appropriate.
Conclusion
The policies and practices listed in this section have been practical guides toward a
consistently healthy fiscal condition. The importance of these and a well-defined financial
strategy to anticipate and conquer difficult issues cannot be understated. The
responsibility to maintain a strong organization is shared community wide, but as the City
Council and City employees, we agree to be the leaders in this effort. Council has shown
integrity in the decisions made to maintain the conservative fiscal strategy. When
resources are tight and needs are plenty, it is difficult to commit to saving some of those
precious resources for the future. Those reserves are most appreciated now as the City
continues to recover and strengthen revenues. Clearly, the City’s Fiscal Strategy has
been successful. The recovery has been slow and steady, given the economic conditions
over recent years. Decisions will continue to be difficult, especially as public pressure
continues to build to increase one-time and on-going spending. The fiscal strategy has
provided the option to keep operations and service level stable and continues to provide
the City with a sustainable future.
ATTACHMENTS:
Attachment A- The State Legislative Analyst’s Office’s (LAO’s) The 2023-24 Budget:
California’s Fiscal Outlook, November 2022
Attachment B- HDL’s City of Atascadero Sales Tax Update Q3 2022
Attachment C- HDL’s California Forecast: Sales Tax Trends and Economic Drivers,
December 2022
Attachment D- Governor’s Budget Summary 2023-24
106
Atascadero
Comprehensive Financial Strategy
April 2023
Attachment A:
The State Legislative Analyst’s Office
California’s Fiscal Outlook, November 2022
www.lao.ca.gov
2023-24 BUDGET
i
GABRIEL PETEK
LEGISLATIVE ANALYST
NOVEMBER 2022
The 2023-24 Budget:
California’s
Fiscal Outlook
LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE
2023-24 BUDGET
ii
www.lao.ca.gov
2023-24 BUDGET
1
Executive Summary
Economic Conditions Weigh on Revenues. Facing rising inflation, the Federal Reserve—
tasked with maintaining stable price growth—repeatedly has enacted large interest rate increases
throughout 2022 with the aim of cooling the economy and, in turn, slowing inflation. The longer
inflation persists and the higher the Federal Reserve increases interest rates in response, the
greater the risk to the economy. The chances that the Federal Reserve can tame inflation without
inducing a recession are narrow. Reflecting the threat of a recession, our revenue estimates
represent the weakest performance the state has experienced since the Great Recession.
State Faces $24 Billion Budget Problem and Ongoing Deficits. Under our outlook, the
Legislature would face a budget problem of $24 billion in 2023-24. (A budget problem—also
called a deficit—occurs when resources for the upcoming fiscal year are insufficient to cover
the costs of currently authorized services.) The budget problem is mainly attributable to lower
revenue estimates, which are lower than budget act projections from 2021-22 through 2023-24
by $41 billion. Revenue losses are offset by lower spending in certain areas. Over the subsequent
years of the forecast, annual deficits would decline from $17 billion to $8 billion.
Inflation-Related Adjustments Vary Across Budget. The General Fund budget can be
thought of in two parts: (1) the Proposition 98 budget for schools and community colleges,
representing about 40 percent of General Fund spending, and (2) everything else. Under our
estimates, the state can afford to maintain its existing school and community college programs
and provide a cost-of-living adjustment of up to 8.38 percent in 2023-24. The extent to which
programs across the rest of the budget are adjusted for inflation varies considerably. Because
our outlook reflects the current law and policy of the Legislature, our spending estimates
only incorporate the effects of inflation on budgetary spending when there are existing
policy mechanisms for doing so. Consequently, our estimate of a $24 billion budget problem
understates the actual budget problem in inflation-adjusted terms.
Save Reserves for a Recession. The $24 billion budget problem in 2023-24 is roughly
equivalent to the amount of general-purpose reserves that the Legislature could have available
to allocate to General Fund programs ($23 billion). While our lower revenue estimates incorporate
the risk of a recession, they do not reflect a recession scenario. Based on historical experience,
should a recession occur soon, revenues could be $30 billion to $50 billion below our revenue
outlook in the budget window. As such, we suggest the Legislature begin planning the 2023-24
budget without using general purpose reserves.
Recommend Legislature Identify Recent Augmentations to Pause or Delay. Early in 2023,
we suggest the Legislature question the administration about the implementation and distribution
of recent augmentations. If augmentations have not yet been distributed, the Legislature has
an opportunity to reevaluate those expenditures. Moreover, in light of the magnitude of the
recent augmentations, programs may not be working as expected, capacity issues may have
constrained implementation, or other unforeseen challenges may have emerged. To address the
budget problem for the upcoming year, these cases might provide the Legislature with areas for
pause, delay, or reassessment.
LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE
2023-24 BUDGET
2
www.lao.ca.gov
2023-24 BUDGET
3
INTRODUCTION
Each year, our office publishes the Fiscal Outlook
in anticipation of the upcoming state budget
process. The goal of this report is to help the
Legislature begin crafting the 2023-24 budget.
Our analysis relies on specific assumptions about
the future of the state economy, its revenues, and
its expenditures. Consequently, our estimates are
not definitive, but rather reflect our best guidance
to the Legislature based on our professional
assessments as of November 2022. This year’s
report addresses four main topics for lawmakers:
• Economic Conditions and the Revenue
Picture. We discuss the implications of
persistently high inflation for the economy
and, in turn, the effects of the economic
environment on our revenue estimates.
In short, although our revenue estimates do
not assume a recession occurs, they are
lower than budget act estimates due to the
heightened risk of an economic downturn.
• The Budget Problem. We then discuss the
implications of lower revenue estimates for
the budget condition in 2023-24 and beyond.
Specifically, lower revenues are expected to
lead to a deficit of $24 billion in the budget
window. Over the subsequent years of
the forecast, annual deficits decline from
$17 billion to $8 billion.
• The State Budget and Inflation. We also
discuss the implications of persistently high
inflation on the state’s spending programs.
Given that many program areas do not
account for inflation without direct legislative
action, we advise the Legislature keep in
mind the programmatic impacts of inflation
as it considers budget solutions to address
the deficit.
• Reserves. We conclude with a discussion of
the state’s reserves, which are the key tool
the state has available to address budget
problems. We urge lawmakers to begin
planning the 2023-24 budget without using
general purpose reserves and, instead, to
save those reserves for when the state faces
a recession.
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS WEIGH ON REVENUES
Booming Economy Has Led to High Inflation.
Spurred by pandemic-related federal stimulus, the
U.S. economy entered a period of rapid expansion
in the summer of 2020 that extended through
2021. Over the last year, however, evidence has
mounted that this rapid economic expansion was
unsustainable. Amid record low unemployment
and continued global supply chain challenges,
businesses have strained to meet surging consumer
demand. As a result, consumer prices have risen
8 percent over the last year, more than three times
the norm of the last three decades.
Efforts to Tame Inflation Are Slowing the
Economy. Facing rising inflation, the Federal
Reserve—tasked with maintaining stable price
growth—repeatedly has enacted large interest
rate increases throughout 2022 with the aim of
cooling the economy and, in turn, slowing inflation.
Higher interest rates dampen economic activity
by increasing borrowing costs for home buyers,
consumers, and businesses, as well as depressing
the value of riskier assets like stocks. The impacts
of recent interest rate hikes are apparent in certain
areas of the economy: home sales have dropped
by one-third, car sales are at the lowest level in over
a decade, and stock prices are down 20 percent
from recent highs. Some impacts also can be seen
in state tax collections. For example, estimated
income tax payments for 2022 so far have been
notably weaker than 2021, likely due in part to
falling stock prices.
Inflation Pressures Remain, Raising Risk of
a Recession. While these slowdowns in certain
areas of the economy have not yet spread more
LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE
2023-24 BUDGET
4
broadly, similar historical episodes have ended in
recessions. The longer inflation persists and the
higher the Federal Reserve increases interest rates
in response, the greater the risk to the economy.
The chances that the Federal Reserve can tame
inflation without inducing a recession are narrow.
Despite recent interest rate increases, inflation
remains well above the Federal Reserve’s stated
price stability goal. Further, factors that tend to
predict future inflation—such as recent changes
in consumer spending, incomes, and prices
for food and energy—suggest that heightened
inflation pressures could remain for some time.
These observations suggest that the Federal
Reserve will take additional steps to curb inflation
in the coming months, further raising the risk
of a recession.
Economic Environment
Creates Challenges for the
Legislature. The current economic
environment poses a substantial
risk to state revenues. In the past,
when economic conditions have
been similar to today, revenues
subsequently have tended
to decline. This presents the
Legislature with the challenge
of balancing two key risks when
selecting a revenue assumption for
the 2023-24 budget. On the one
hand, adopting overly optimistic
revenues which fail to account
for the potential of an economic
downturn would create a high risk
of shortfalls in future years. On
the other hand, while it appears
likely a recession will occur, it is
far from certain. Further, the exact
timing and severity of a possible
recession are unknowable. Because of this,
adopting revenues consistent with the abrupt onset
of a recession would run the risk of making cuts to
public services before they are necessary.
Fiscal Outlook Revenues Balance Competing
Risks. Our revenue outlook—displayed in
Figure 1—weighs equally the risks of excess
optimism and excess pessimism. Reflecting the
threat of a recession, our revenue estimates
represent the weakest performance the state has
experienced since the Great Recession. At the
same time, our revenues stop short of reflecting an
abrupt recession. Were a recession to occur soon,
revenue declines in the budget window very likely
would be more severe than our outlook.
THE BUDGET PROBLEM
In this section, we describe our estimates
of California’s budget condition in the near
term (in 2023-24) and over a multiyear period
(through 2026-27). Over both time horizons, we
expect the state will face deficits, also known as
budget problems.
BSA = Budget Stabilization Account.
Figure 1
LAO Revenue Outlook
General Fund Revenue, Excluding BSA Transfers (In Billions)
150
175
200
225
250
275
$300
2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27
The shaded area shows how far revenues
could deviate from our main forecast.
Outcomes beyond the shaded area are
possible, but revenues most likely will fall in the shaded area.
www.lao.ca.gov
2023-24 BUDGET
5
BUDGET YEAR
We Anticipate the Legislature Faces
a Budget Problem of $24 Billion in
Upcoming Year. Figure 2 shows that, under
our revenue estimates, the state would have a
budget problem of $24 billion in 2023-24. The
nearby box describes what the term “budget
problem” means in more detail. As the figure
shows, the state also would end 2023-24 with
nearly $22 billion in the Budget Stabilization
Account (BSA)—the state’s general-purpose
reserve. These funds are available to address
a budget emergency. (Under the State
Constitution, the Governor can declare
a budget emergency when estimated
resources in the current or upcoming fiscal
year are insufficient to keep spending at the
level of the highest of the prior three budgets,
adjusted for inflation and population.
The Legislature cannot access the BSA
without this declaration.)
Figure 2
General Fund Condition Under Fiscal Outlook
(In Millions)
2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
Prior-year fund balance $38,334 $19,885 -$1,166
Revenues and transfers 224,089 208,280 208,252
Expenditures 242,539 229,331 226,486
Ending Fund Balance $19,885 -$1,166 -$19,400
Encumbrances $4,276 $4,276 $4,276
SFEU Balance $15,609 -$5,442 -$23,676
Reserves
BSA balance $21,925 $21,925 $21,925
Safety Net Reserve 900 900 900
SFEU = Special Fund for Economic Uncertainties.
What Is a Budget Problem?
A budget problem—also called a deficit—occurs when resources for the upcoming budget are
insufficient to cover the costs of currently authorized services. As such, calculating the budget
problem involves two main steps:
• Projecting Anticipated Revenues. First, we estimate how much revenue will be available
for the remainder of the current and upcoming year. This means using assumptions about
how the economy is likely to perform over the coming 20 months and then using those
assumptions to project revenue collections.
• Estimating Current Service Level. Second, we compare those anticipated revenues to
the level of spending to support the current service level under the state’s current law and
policy. Projecting current service spending, which we also call “baseline spending,” has
several components. For example, it requires us to project how caseload will change for
means-tested programs, estimate how much federal funding will come to the state based on
current federal policy, and make many other assessments.
When current service level spending exceeds anticipated revenues, the state has a budget
problem. In this document, the budget problem is reflected in the 2023-24 ending balance in the
Special Fund for Economic Uncertainties, shown in Figure 2.
Budget Problem Must Be Addressed. The State Constitution requires the Legislature to pass
a balanced budget. As a result, if—earlier in the process—the state faces a budget problem, the
Legislature must solve the problem using a combination of tools. In a recession, the main tool for
solving a budget problem is the state’s reserve. If reserves are insufficient to cover the budget
problem, however, the Legislature must take other actions to bring the budget into balance.
These actions include reducing spending, increasing revenues, and/or shifting costs, for example,
between funds, time periods, or entities of government.
LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE
2023-24 BUDGET
6
Budget Problem Driven by Lower Revenue
Estimates. The budget problem for 2023-24 mainly
is attributable to lower revenue estimates. More
specifically, however, the budget problem arises as
a result of the offsetting effects of five main factors:
• Planned Deficit of Nearly $3 Billion for
2023-24. Under the 2022-23 Budget Act
assumptions, the state would have ended
2023-24 with a deficit of nearly $3 billion in
2023-24. Revenue losses compound this
already negative starting point.
• Revenues Losses Add to Deficit by
$41 Billion. Across 2021-22, 2022-23,
and 2023-24, our estimates of revenues
and transfers (excluding transfers to the
BSA) are lower than budget act projections
by $41 billion.
• Formula-Driven Spending on Schools and
Community Colleges Offsets Revenue
Losses by $13 Billion. General Fund
spending on schools and community colleges
is determined by a set of constitutional
formulas under Proposition 98 (1988).
Under our outlook, the state allocates
about 40 percent of General Fund revenue
to K-14 education each year of the budget
window. Relative to budget act estimates and
consistent with lower revenue,
our estimate of required
General Fund spending on
schools and community
colleges for 2021-22 through
2023-24 decreases by
$13 billion.
• Formula-Driven BSA
Deposits Offset Revenue
Losses by an Additional
$5 Billion. Relative to the
budget act, under our revenue
estimates, the state’s required
deposits into the BSA would
be lower by $5 billion across
the three-year period. This
decline is driven by three
factors: (1) higher capital
gains revenues in 2021-22
result in a $1.6 billion increase
in the deposit that year;
(2) significantly lower revenues in 2022-23
cause that year’s $3.4 billion deposit to be
reduced to zero; and (3) our assumption that
the state suspends the otherwise required
BSA deposit in 2023-24, due to the budget
problem, originally estimated to be $2.9 billion.
• Other Spending Lower by Nearly $3 Billion.
Across the rest of the budget, our estimates of
spending are lower than the administration’s
by $2.6 billion across the three-year period.
This figure reflects the net effect of a number
of different factors moving in both directions.
Under Our Revenue Estimates, No SAL
Requirement in 2023-24. In recent years, the state
appropriations limit (SAL) has placed considerable
limitations on how the Legislature can use revenues
that exceed a specific threshold. Mainly due
to lower revenues, the SAL is less likely to be a
significant constraint in this year’s budget process.
The box on page 9 describes our SAL estimates for
2022-23 and over the multiyear period.
MULTIYEAR
State Faces Operating Deficits Over the
Multiyear Period. Figure 3 displays our estimates
of the budget’s condition over the outlook period.
Figure 3
State Faces Budget Deficits Across Multiyear Period
(In Billions)
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-$5
2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27
$24 Billion Budget
Problem in 2023-24
Smaller Ongoing
Operating Deficits
www.lao.ca.gov
2023-24 BUDGET
7
As the figure shows, in addition to the $24 billion
budget problem the state faces in 2023-24, the
state faces annual operating deficits which decline
from $17 billion to $8 billion by 2026-27. The
remainder of this section describes some of the
key multiyear trends that result in these bottom
line estimates.
Revenues Decline, Stabilize, and Then Grow.
The key assumption underlying our multiyear
outlook is our estimate of revenues. As we
discussed earlier, our revenue outlook balances
competing risks. It reflects the threat of a downturn,
but stops short of reflecting an abrupt recession.
As Figure 4 shows, we anticipate revenues will
decline between 2021-22 and 2022-23 by more
than the budget act anticipated, but then remain
largely flat between 2022-23 and 2024-25, before
growing again in the last two years of the outlook.
Significant Underlying Program Growth
Somewhat Offset by Reductions in Temporary
Spending. We estimate spending growth assuming
current law and policy remains in place, meaning
we assume the Legislature enacts no new policies
over the period. Under our assumptions, General
Fund spending would grow from $227 billion in
2023-24 to $246 billion in 2026-27—an increase
of about $20 billion or an average annual growth
of 2.9 percent. (The next section describes some
of the other major spending
assumptions that are embedded
in these estimates, including
specific differences with the
administration’s budget act
assumptions.) The relatively slow
overall growth in expenditures
is the result of many offsetting
factors, shown in Figure 5 on
the next page. Namely, faster
growth in ongoing programs,
such as in education, employee
compensation, and health and
human services programs, would
total nearly $35 billion over the
period. But this growth is offset by
about $15 billion in lower spending
in other areas—including in
natural resources, transportation,
and housing. In these areas,
the state allocated significant
portions of recent budget surpluses to temporary
augmentations, which “turn off” over the period,
resulting in declines relative to the 2023-24 level.
Recent Budgets Committed to Growing
Ongoing Augmentations. The spending
growth in Figure 5 reflects a combination of
underlying program growth and recent legislative
augmentations. While recent budgets have
committed a significant share of new spending
to one-time or temporary purposes, those
budgets also consistently allocated some funds
to ongoing purposes—many of which grow
significantly. For example, the 2021-22 budget
allocated $3.4 billion to new, ongoing spending,
expected to grow to about $12 billion by 2025-26.
Similarly, the 2022-23 budget allocated $2.3 billion
to new, ongoing spending, expected to grow
to nearly $5 billion by 2026-27. With mostly flat
revenue growth, these recent, sizeable, ongoing
augmentations place significant pressure on the
out-year condition of the budget.
Major Spending Assumptions
Our Fiscal Outlook reflects current
law and policy. This means our spending
estimates incorporate the fiscal effects of
all enacted policies. In addition, we include
the fiscal effects of those policies which the
Legislature has repeatedly enacted (absent
190
200
210
220
230
240
$250
2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27
LAO Multiyear Revenue Outlook
Budget Act
BSA = Budget Stabilization Account.
Figure 4
Under Our Outlook, Revenues Decline,
Stabilize, and Then Grow
General Fund Revenues and Transfers Excluding BSA Deposits (In Billions)
LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE
2023-24 BUDGET
8
statutory commitments to ongoing spending).
The remainder of this section describes some
of the other key spending assumptions in this
Fiscal Outlook.
Assume Spending Enacted With Clear
Legislative Intent Occurs... In the Fiscal Outlook,
we aim to estimate the costs of the state’s
commitments under current law and policy. For
this analysis, we include the costs associated
with legislative intent language as current policy
if it meets certain conditions. Specifically, (1) the
Legislature voted on and approved the policy,
(2) the policy is included in budget-related statutes
(for example, in trailer bill) that have force of law,
and (3) the policy as described in statute is specific
and implementable.
…Which Results in Some Differences With
the Administration. The administration’s spending
estimates at the time of the budget act included
some expenditures that did not meet these criteria.
Consequently, those items are not included in our
expenditure estimates. The largest expenditures
included in the administration’s estimates but
excluded from our analysis are: (1) spending
$1.7 billion to accelerate the repayment of bond
debt service in 2024-25, (2) setting aside additional
reserve deposits of $1 billion in 2024-25 and
$3 billion in 2025-26, and (3) spending $1.9 billion
in 2023-24 to shift capital outlay projects currently
authorized for lease revenue bonds to General
Fund cash. In addition, the administration included
an unallocated set aside for inflation-related
costs in their estimates. We do not make a similar
adjustment because those costs do not reflect
current law and policy. (If we had included these
amounts in baseline spending, the budget problem
would have been larger.) On the other hand, we do
reflect spending on school facilities of $2 billion
in 2023-24 and $875 million in 2024-25, and
broadband spending of $300 million in 2023-24 and
$250 million in 2024-25, in which enacted legislative
intent language met our criteria.
Figure 5
Factors Affecting Spending Growth
(In Billions)
$40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Schools and Community Colleges
Employee Compensation,
Pensions, and Retiree Health
Medi-Cal
Childcare and Preschool
IHSS
CalWORKs
Resources and Environment
Transportation
Housing
Emergencies
Correctionsª
Other
Underlying Growth Concentrated in
Education, Employee Compensation,
and Health and Human Services...As a Result, Spending Grows $20 Billion
Between 2023-24 and 2026-27
...Offset by Reductions in Other Areas, Largely Temporary Spending
a Excluding employee compensation.
IHSS = In-Home Supportive Services.
www.lao.ca.gov
2023-24 BUDGET
9
Assume BSA Deposit and Infrastructure
Spending Requirement Are Not Suspended
After 2023-24. Under the constitutional rules of
Proposition 2 (2014), the state must make annual
payments toward certain state debts, deposits
into the BSA, and, in some years, infrastructure
payments. While the debt payments are required
until 2029-30 regardless of the condition of the
budget, BSA deposits and infrastructure payments
can be suspended if the state faces a budget
emergency. Our outlook assumes these payments
are suspended in 2023-24, but not in 2024-25
or later. That said, in at least one of these years,
the Legislature might have the option to suspend
deposits and infrastructure spending if certain
conditions are met. Suspending BSA deposits
and infrastructure spending would result in an
improvement in the budget condition by an average
of roughly $1 billion each year.
Make CalPERS Contribution Assumptions
Consistent With Recent Experience and LAO
Forecasts. Our outlook assumes the state makes
required pension contributions to the California
Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS)
based on the most recent actuarial valuation—in
this case, as of June 30, 2021, which establishes
the state’s contribution rates for 2022-23. Using
CalPERS’ online tool, we adjust these contribution
rates based on recent investment returns,
our assessment of economic conditions, and
expected Proposition 2 debt repayments under
our forecast. The net effect of these assumptions
November 2022 State Appropriations Limit (SAL) Estimates
How the SAL Works. The SAL calculation involves comparing (1) the limit to (2) appropriations
subject to the limit. The limit is calculated by adjusting last year’s limit for a growth factor that
includes economic and population growth. Appropriations subject to the limit are determined
by taking all proceeds of state taxes and subtracting excluded spending. If appropriations
subject to the limit are less than the limit, there is “room.” If the converse is true, the state has a
SAL requirement. The Legislature can meet SAL requirements in one of three ways: (1) lowering
proceeds of taxes (for example, by providing taxpayer rebates), (2) spending more on excluded
purposes (for example, for capital outlay or funding to local governments), or (3) issuing taxpayer
rebates and providing more funding to schools and community colleges. For more information
about the SAL and its recent implications on the state budget, see our reports The State
Appropriations Limit and The 2022-23 Budget: State Appropriations Limit Implications.
Under LAO Revenue Estimates, State Has Room Across the Budget Window… Under
our estimates of revenues and spending, including special funds, the state would have room
of $27 billion in 2021-22 and $23 billion in 2022-23. In 2022-23, this is somewhat more room
than was anticipated at budget act, mainly due to lower General Fund revenues. In 2023-24, the
state still would have $19 billion in room due to a few factors: (1) relatively flat General Fund tax
revenues, (2) continued capital outlay spending from recent budget acts, (3) modest growth in
other baseline exclusions, and (4) some growth in the limit itself.
…But if Revenues Grow Again, State Most Likely Would Face SAL Requirements Again.
Under our multiyear outlook, the state would have much less room in 2024-25, about $4 billion,
and then face SAL requirements in 2025-26 and 2026-27 of $4 billion and $18 billion, respectively.
These SAL requirements occur largely because our estimates of General Fund tax revenues grow
faster than the limit itself in these years. Under our outlook, the state also would face budget
deficits in these years, making these SAL requirements considerably more difficult to address.
That said, while these estimates are highly uncertain and revenues could be significantly higher or
lower than our estimates in any given year, on a long-term basis, we expect the state to continue
to reach the limit. This will reoccur because historical revenue growth rates exceed the growth in
the limit itself.
LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE
2023-24 BUDGET
10
is that the outlook assumes that state pension
contribution rates are significantly higher than the
projected rates published in CalPERS’ most recent
actuarial valuation. Specifically, annual General
Fund contributions to CalPERS would be higher
by $1.7 billion by the last year of our outlook.
(A corresponding upward adjustment to The
California State Teachers’ Retirement System was
not necessary due to differing funding mechanisms
and investment returns.)
Assume Enhanced Federal Match for
Medicaid Ends Midway Through 2022-23.
Medicaid is an entitlement program whose
costs generally are shared between the federal
government and states. In 2020, Congress
approved a temporary 6.2 percentage point
increase in the federal government’s share of cost
for most state Medicaid programs. This funding
enhancement lasts until the end of the quarter
in which the national public health emergency
(PHE) declaration ends. For the purposes of this
analysis, we assumed the declaration would expire
in January 2023, resulting in an increase in General
Fund costs of Medicaid programs in the fourth
quarter of 2022-23. However, as we completed this
analysis, the U.S. Department of Health and Human
Services did not notify states the PHE would
end in January. Given the federal administration
committed to providing states 60 days’ notice
regarding the end of the public health emergency,
the PHE is likely to remain in place after January
2023. We estimate a one-quarter extension results
in lower General Fund costs of about $450 million—
improving the budget bottom line condition by that
amount (this figure is subject to uncertainty).
INFLATION-RELATED ADJUSTMENTS
VARY ACROSS BUDGET
The General Fund budget can be thought of
in two parts: (1) the Proposition 98 budget for
schools and community colleges, representing
about 40 percent of General Fund spending, and
(2) everything else. In this section, we discuss
the budget conditions of each of these parts of
the budget—accounting for inflation—and the
implications of those differences.
Under Proposition 98 Estimates, State Can
Maintain Program Spending to Schools Even
Adjusted for Inflation. Under our outlook, the
Proposition 98 funding requirement for schools and
community colleges is $108.2 billion ($78 billion
General Fund) in 2023-24, a decrease of $2.1 billion
(2 percent) compared with the enacted 2022-23
level. Despite this decrease, the state could afford
to maintain its existing school and community
college programs and provide a cost-of-living
adjustment (COLA) of up to 8.38 percent in
2023-24. (This COLA represents a slight reduction
in the statutory rate that would apply if the
Proposition 98 funding requirement were larger.)
The key reasons this COLA can be afforded are:
(1) the June budget allocated a sizeable amount
of funding to one-time activities, which expire in
2023-24; (2) program costs decline from 2022-23
to 2023-24 due to an adjustment for school
attendance; and (3) a constitutionally required
withdrawal from the Proposition 98 Reserve
supplements the regular Proposition 98 funding
level. The nearby box gives more detail about the
out-year condition of the Proposition 98 budget.
In Contrast, the Remainder of the Budget
Has a Budget Problem Without Universal
Adjustments for Inflation. In some areas across
the rest of the budget, programmatic spending is
adjusted somewhat automatically for inflation—
either through formulas or administrative decisions.
Examples of these adjustments include actuarially
determined increases in Medi-Cal managed care
rates and administrative discretion over increases
to capital outlay. In other cases, spending increases
are determined through legislative deliberation
and are directly approved by the Legislature.
Because our outlook reflects the current law
and policy of the Legislature, our spending
estimates only incorporate the effects of inflation
on budgetary spending when there are existing
www.lao.ca.gov
2023-24 BUDGET
11
Proposition 98 Multiyear Outlook
Proposition 98 Establishes “Budget Within a Budget.” By requiring the state to set
aside certain amounts of funding, Proposition 98 (1988) creates a budget for schools and
community colleges within the state’s larger budget. The minimum size of this budget—the
“minimum guarantee”—is determined by a set of constitutional formulas. Individual school and
community college programs, in turn, are paid out of this budget. A “shortfall” in the context of the
Proposition 98 budget means that funding under the guarantee is insufficient to cover the costs
of existing educational programs, as adjusted by changes in student attendance and inflation.
A “surplus,” by contrast, means that the guarantee exceeds these program costs.
Guarantee Grows Over the Outlook Period. Our estimate of the total Proposition 98 spending
on schools and community colleges in 2022-23 is $106.7 billion ($78.6 billion from the General Fund
and $28.1 billion from local property taxes). The minimum funding requirement grows by an average
of $5.6 billion (4.9 percent) per year over the next four years. Most of this growth comes from the
state General Fund, but increases in local property tax revenue also contribute. The increases in the
guarantee are relatively slow early in the period and faster near the end.
Growth in General Fund Portion of the Guarantee Driven by Three Factors. The General
Fund portion of the guarantee grows by $16.7 billion from 2022-23 to 2026-27. Most of this increase
reflects our General Fund revenue estimates, with the constitutional formulas generally directing
about 40 percent of state revenue growth toward the Proposition 98 guarantee. Our estimates also
account for two smaller adjustments: (1) an increase of $2.6 billion for the expansion of transitional
kindergarten and (2) an increase of approximately $1 billion beginning 2023-24 to fund arts
education (based on preliminary Proposition 28 results).
Reserve Withdrawals Compensate for Small Shortfalls. The figure summarizes the overall
condition of the Proposition 98 budget under our forecast. The negative blue bars early in the period
correspond with small shortfalls. Reserve withdrawals, however, reduce the shortfall in 2023-24 and
eliminate it entirely in the following two years. (Proposition 2 [2014] created a reserve for schools
and community colleges and established rules requiring deposits into and withdrawals from the
fund under certain conditions.) The orange bars show the surplus or shortfall after accounting for
these withdrawals. By the end of the period, the Proposition 98 budget is back in balance and the
state makes a small reserve deposit. Overall, our outlook suggests that the school and community
college budget generally is balanced but does not have capacity for new ongoing commitments.
COLA = cost-of-living adjustment.
Proposition 98 Reserve Compensates for Small Shortfalls Over the Next Few Years
Main Forecast (In Billions)
2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27
Surplus: available funding exceeds program costs, adjusted for COLA.
Shortfall: available funding is less than program costs, adjusted for COLA.
Reserve Deposit or Withdrawal
Surplus/Shortfall After Reserves
-3
-2
-1
1
2
$3
Surplus/Shortfall Before Reserves
LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE
2023-24 BUDGET
12
policy mechanisms for doing so. This means that
the actual costs to maintain the state’s service
level are higher than what our outlook reflects.
Consequently, our estimate of a $24 billion budget
problem understates the actual budget problem
in inflation-adjusted terms. That is, assuming the
Legislature wanted to maintain its current level of
services, additional spending would be necessary.
Consider Inflation When Addressing the
Budget Problem. As the Legislature works
to address the budget problem, we suggest
policymakers consider the unique impacts of
inflation on each of the state’s major spending
programs in conjunction with possible budget
solutions. On the one hand, pausing automatic
adjustments could free up resources and mitigate
the need for other reductions. On the other hand,
for those programs whose costs have not recently
been adjusted for inflation, budget reductions
would result in greater reductions in service. If the
Legislature wants to provide inflation adjustments
in some areas in response to higher prices, the size
of the budget problem would increase, meaning
corresponding reductions to other areas also would
be required.
SAVE RESERVES FOR A RECESSION
A Recession Would Result in Much More
Significant Revenue Declines. While the
heightened risk of a recession weighs down our
revenue outlook, our estimates do not reflect a
recession. Were a recession to begin within the
next several months, revenue declines would be
greater than shown in our revenue outlook. Based
on historical experience, should a recession occur
soon, revenues could be $30 billion to $50 billion
below our revenue outlook in the budget window.
General Purpose Reserves Are Adequate to
Cover Budget Problem, but Not if a Recession
Occurs. Consistent with lower revenue estimates,
the Legislature faces a budget problem of
$24 billion in 2023-24—roughly equivalent to
the amount of general-purpose reserves it
could have available to allocate to General Fund
programs ($23 billion). Despite this, we suggest
the Legislature begin planning the 2023-24
budget without using general purpose reserves.
We say this for two reasons. First, the state will
have more information about the budget condition
in May. At that time, revenues could be higher
or lower than our current estimates and the
Legislature will need to enact the final budget in
a very compressed time frame. If revenues are
significantly lower, the Legislature will need both
reserves and other budget solutions to address the
deficit. If revenues are higher, the Legislature will
not need to make as many spending reductions or
revenue increases. Using the beginning months of
the year to deliberate difficult budgetary choices
about spending reductions or revenue increases
would give the Legislature more time to weigh these
decisions. Second, we would urge the Legislature
to consider saving reserves for a recession when
the budget problem could be twice as large as the
one identified in our outlook.
In the Meantime, Recommend Legislature
Identify Recent Augmentations to Pause or
Delay. Recent budgets allocated significant
funds to one-time and temporary purposes, with
many large augmentations planned for 2022-23
and 2023-24. For example, the 2021-22 budget
committed $39 billion in General Fund resources
to one-time or temporary purposes and the
2022-23 budget committed $36 billion to similar
types of activities. Early in 2023, we suggest
the Legislature question the administration
about the implementation and distribution of
these augmentations. If augmentations have
not yet been distributed, the Legislature has an
opportunity to reevaluate those expenditures.
Moreover, in light of the magnitude of the recent
augmentations, programs may not be working as
expected, capacity issues may have constrained
implementation, or other unforeseen challenges
may have emerged. To address the budget
problem for the upcoming year, these cases might
provide the Legislature with areas for pause,
delay, or reassessment.
www.lao.ca.gov
2023-24 BUDGET
13
APPENDIX
Appendix Figure 1
General Fund Spending Through 2023-24
(In Billions)
2022-23
Outlook
2023-24
Change From
2022-23
Legislative and Executive $10.9 $9.2 -15%
Courts 3.5 3.7 5
Business, Consumer Services, and Housing 2.3 1.3 -43
Transportation 0.6 0.4 -37
Natural Resources 8.6 7.4 -15
Environmental Protection 1.5 2.0 35
Health and Human Services 66.4 68.2 3
Corrections and Rehabilitation 13.6 13.1 -4
Education 18.7 20.9 12
Labor and Workforce Development 1.5 2.0 35
Government Operations 4.9 3.6 -26
General Government
Non-Agency Departments 1.8 3.3 78
Tax Relief/Local Government 0.7 0.6 -7
Statewide Expenditures 7.6 6.7 -20
Capital Outlay 2.8 0.5 -82
Debt Service 5.4 5.6 4
Agency Spending Total $150.7 $148.4 -2%
Schools and Community Collegesa $78.6 $78.1 -1%
Totals $229.3 $226.5 -2%
a Reflects General Fund component of the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee.
LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE
2023-24 BUDGET
14
Appendix Figure 2
General Fund Spending by Agency Through 2026-27
(In Billions)
Agency 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27
Average
Annual
Growth
Legislative and Executive $15.5 $10.9 $9.2 $5.2 $2.8 $2.4 -35.8%
Courts 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.1 3.8
Business, Consumer Services, and
Housing
2.2 2.3 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 -46.9
Transportation 2.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 -27.2
Natural Resources 11.4 8.6 7.4 4.4 4.6 2.9 -26.5
Environmental Protection 4.2 1.5 2.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 -56.2
Health and Human Services 52.5 66.4 68.2 73.5 77.5 81.9 6.3
Corrections and Rehabilitation 13.7 13.6 13.1 12.4 11.9 11.8 -3.3
Education 20.8 18.7 20.9 21.0 20.6 21.7 1.3
Labor and Workforce Development 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.1 1.1 -17.1
Government Operations 20.1 4.9 3.6 3.9 4.0 3.8 1.4
General Government
Non-Agency Departments 1.8 1.8 3.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 -33.2
Tax Relief/Local Government 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.1
Statewide Expenditures 1.7 7.6 6.7 8.1 8.5 11.7 20.4
Capital Outlay 1.6 2.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 —
Debt Service 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 5.8 1.2
Agency Spending Total $158.6 $150.7 $148.4 $142.9 $143.8 $149.9 0.3%
Schools and Community Collegesa $83.9 $78.6 $78.1 $81.8 $87.3 $95.4 6.9%
Proposition 2 Infrastructureb ———$0.8 $0.5 $1.3 -100.0%
Total Forecasted Spending $242.5 $229.3 $226.5 $225.5 $231.6 $246.6 2.9%
a Reflects General Fund component of the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee.b In 2022-23, amounts are distributed across agencies. In 2023-24, we assumed required infrastructure payments were suspended under Proposition 2
budget emergency provisions.
Appendix Figure 3
LAO Multiyear Revenue Outlook
(In Billions)
2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27
Personal Income Tax $135.9 $125.2 $122.6 $127.1 $144.1 $171.9
Corporation Tax 45.5 37.0 38.6 40.6 33.8 25.1
Sales Tax 32.9 33.3 33.1 34.1 35.3 36.5
Total “Big Three” Revenue ($214.3)($195.5)($194.3)($201.8)($213.1)($233.5)
Federal Cost Recovery $1.3 $6.9 $7.0 $0.5 $0.3 $0.1
Other Revenues 6.0 6.2 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.2
Total Revenues ($221.5)($208.7)($208.1)($209.4)($220.6)($240.8)
Transfers $2.6 -$0.4 $0.2 -$1.2 -$0.8 -$1.7
Total Revenues and Transfers $224.1 $208.3 $208.3 $208.2 $219.7 $239.1
www.lao.ca.gov
2023-24 BUDGET
15
LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE
WWW.LAO.CA.GOV (916) 445-4656
Legislative Analyst
Gabriel Petek
Chief Deputy Legislative Analyst Chief Deputy Legislative Analyst
Carolyn Chu Anthony Simbol
a General Fund Condition analyst, Fiscal Outlook coordinator.
State Budget Condition
Ann Hollingsheada
Economy, Taxes, and Labor
Brian Uhler, Deputy
Chas Alamo
Ross Brown
Seth Kerstein
Brian Weatherford
Health, Developmental Services, and IT
Mark C. Newton, Deputy
Jason Constantouros
Luke Koushmaro
Brian Metzker
Will Owens
Human Services and Governance
Ginni Bella Navarre, Deputy
Ryan Anderson
Lourdes Morales
Nick Schroeder
Angela Short
K-12 Education
Edgar Cabral, Deputy
Michael Alferes
Jackie Barocio
Sara Cortez
Kenneth Kapphahn
Higher Education
Jennifer Kuhn Pacella, Deputy
Ian Klein
Lisa Qing
Paul Steenhausen
Environment and Transportation
Rachel Ehlers, Deputy
Sarah Cornett
Frank Jimenez
Helen Kerstein
Sonja Petek
Eunice Roh
Public Safety and Business Regulation
Drew Soderborg, Deputy
Anita Lee
Caitlin O’Neil
Orlando Sanchez Zavala
Jared Sippel
Administration, Information Services, and Support
Michael Greer
Sarah Barkman
Vu Chu
Rey Gonzalez
Linda Le
Tamara Lockhart
Anthony Lucero
Mohammed Saeed
Sarah Scanlon
Jim Stahley
LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE
2023-24 BUDGET
16
www.lao.ca.gov
2023-24 BUDGET
17
LEGISLATIVE ANALYST’S OFFICE
2023-24 BUDGET
18
LAO PUBLICATIONS
This report was prepared by Ann Hollingshead, with contributions from others across the office, and reviewed by
Carolyn Chu and Anthony Simbol. The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) is a nonpartisan office that provides fiscal
and policy information and advice to the Legislature.
To request publications call (916) 445-4656. This report and others, as well as an e-mail subscription service, are
available on the LAO’s website at www.lao.ca.gov. The LAO is located at 925 L Street, Suite 1000, Sacramento,
California 95814.
Atascadero
Comprehensive Financial Strategy
April 2023
Attachment B:
HdL’s City of Atascadero Sales Tax Update
Quarter 3, 2022
www.hdlcompanies.com | 888.861.0220
Q3 2021*
Q3 2022*
Legend
$0
$40,000
$80,000
$120,000
$160,000
$200,000
$240,000
$280,000
SALES TAX BY MAJOR BUSINESS GROUP*Allocation aberrations have been adjusted to reflect sales activity
Fuel andServiceStations
BuildingandConstruction
Countyand StatePools
RestaurantsandHotels
AutosandTransportation
BusinessandIndustry
FoodandDrugs
GeneralConsumerGoods
TOP 25 PRODUCERSCITY OF ATASCADERO HIGHLIGHTS
Published by HdL Companies in Winter 2023
7 Eleven
Arco AM PM
Atascadero 76
Atascadero Chevron
Atascadero Shell
Chalk Mountain Gas
Chalk Mountain Liquor & Deli
Circle K Union 76
Dealers Choice
El Camino Building Supply
Farwest Line Specialties
Food 4 Less
Hitching Post Shell
Home Depot
In N Out Burger
Klem Gas
McDonalds
Miners Ace Hardware
San Anselmo Chevron
Shell
Sky River RV
Smart & Final
Sunset Auto Sales
Valley Speed & Marine
Vons
SALES TAX UPDATECITY OF ATASCADERO
3Q 2022 (JULY - SEPTEMBER)
Atascadero’s receipts from July through
September were 5.4% above the third
sales period in 2021. Excluding reporting
aberrations, actual sales were up 5.7%.
Increased summer tourism helped grow
overall sales tax. Restaurants, especially sit-
down casual dining established, experienced
solid gains as enhanced optional dining
areas, continued demand to eat out and
higher menu prices all helped contribute.
With the global cost of crude oil still keeping
gas prices high for commuters and travelers,
revenue from service stations jumped 26%.
Activity at building-construction suppliers
improved largely due to the stable housing
and commercial markets and on-going
infrastructure investment.
Allocations from the countywide use tax
pool continues to be a bright spot. Greater
investments in infrastructure and industrial
equipment purchases helping the pool grow
coupled with the improved local results
stated above, the City’s share grew 5%
compared to a year ago.
The City’s two transaction taxes,
experienced similar overall results with
strong building-construction and business-
industry activity and gas stations receipts
increasing the most.
Net of aberrations, taxable sales for all of
San Luis Obispo County grew 7.1% over the
comparable time period; the Central Coast
region was up 7.2%.
TOTAL:
4.8%
$804,325 Measure F14
TOTAL:
4.9%
$1,608,152 MeasureD-20
TOTAL:$ 1,323,154
5.7% 7.1% 8.0%
COUNTY STATE
ATASCADERO
3Q2022
TOP NON-CONFIDENTIAL BUSINESS TYPES
Q3 '22*AtascaderoBusiness Type Change Change ChangeCountyHdL State
18.5%25.2%26.3% 275.7 Service Stations
4.0%4.0%5.1% 86.5 Quick-Service Restaurants
10.1%0.7%14.7% 78.8 Casual Dining
3.0%1.8%0.6% 62.5 Grocery Stores
-7.6%-32.8%-29.2% 43.7 Used Automotive Dealers
5.3%11.9%4.5% 27.3 Automotive Supply Stores
-1.9%-0.9%-3.6% 23.7 Drug Stores
10.7%-5.3%-4.0% 20.0 Auto Repair Shops
15.5%-16.4%24.1% 18.7 Contractors
4.0%12.0%5.6% 14.1 Specialty Stores
*Allocation aberrations have been adjusted to reflect sales activity *In thousands of dollars
REVENUE BY BUSINESS GROUP
Atascadero This Quarter*
16%Pools
14%Restaurants
11%Autos/Trans.
17%Building
7%Bus./Ind.
6%
Cons.Goods
7%Food/Drug
21%Fuel
*ADJUSTED FORECONOMIC DATA
SALES TAX UPDATECITY OF ATASCADERO3Q 2022
STATEWIDE RESULTS
Local one cent sales and use tax for sales
occurring July through September was 8%
higher than the same quarter one year ago
after adjusting for accounting anomalies
and back payments from previous quarters.
These returns mark another strong period of
growth for the California spending economy.
Even as the Federal Reserve Board continued
ramping up interest rates in an effort to curb
the larger concern of inflation, consumers
maintained purchases on multiple fronts,
especially automobiles. Surprisingly, new
car dealers experienced 10% gains over
the comparable period in 2021. Limited
inventory and demand for higher mileage
vehicles including electric and hybrid
models helped support growth. In addition,
the increased cost of used vehicles has
pushed many into the new vehicle market;
in contrast, sales of recreation vehicles and
auto leasing activity remained soft.
For Californians, the summer of 2022
had the highest gas prices on record;
subsequently fuel and service stations
receipts jumped 21%. Commuters and
summer travel remained steady, yet overall
consumption still trails pre-pandemic levels
by approximately 13%. Although the Russia-
Ukraine conflict initially caused a dramatic
shift in global crude oil markets, prices have
begun to pull back closer to historical norms.
Restaurants experienced a strong uptick as
increased menu prices, consistent desire
to dine out and strong tourism contributed
to this favorable news. Just as important,
theme parks, leisure-entertainment venues
and hotels pushed positive momentum
back to 2019 levels. With tightening profit
margins and sustained labor concerns, future
improvement could be slowed compared to
the last two years.
Busy contractors and plumbing-electrical
suppliers boosted the building-construction
sector. Solid residential and commercial
housing prices persisted despite recent
interest rate hikes. Tenant improvements
further support spending activity as
businesses assess future office needs. With
statewide new housing requirements and
federal infrastructure funding on the horizon,
current forecasts stay optimistic.
Steady investment in capital equipment
coupled with the overall increased price of
goods enhanced both business-industry and
countywide use tax pool allocations.
For the second straight quarter, fuel sales
linked to discount department stores
propped up general consumer goods
results. Otherwise, retailers experienced
flat to decreased receipts as many apparel
categories, home furnishings and sporting
goods struggled to keep pace with the
prior year. As consumers balanced summer
opportunities and higher prices, in-store
shopping appears to have taken a temporary
back seat.
Sustained price increases and interest rate
hikes certainly have consumers contemplating
where to spend their dollars. However,
historically low statewide unemployment
rates and the recovery of the national stock
markets from declines earlier this year leave
modest optimism heading into 2023.
Atascadero
Comprehensive Financial Strategy
April 2023
Attachment C:
HdL’s California Forecast: Sales Tax Trends and
Economic Drivers, December 2022
Delivering Revenue, Insight and Efficiency to Local Government Since 1983
HdL provides relevant information and analyses on the economic forces affecting California’s local government agencies. In addition, HdL’s Revenue Enhancement and Economic Development Services
help clients to maximize revenues.
888.861.0220 | solutions@hdlcompanies.com | hdlcompanies.com
CALIFORNIA FORECASTSALES TAX TRENDS & ECONOMIC DRIVERS
DECEMBER 2022
Mono County, CA
STATEWIDESALES TAX TRENDS
2022/23 | 2023/242022/23 | 2023/24
Overview: Over the last few months, slight inflation improvements materialized in various industries, however real change has
yet to take hold. Households remain nervous about the economy sliding into a recession. Nevertheless, customer spending
remained strong through the holiday season. Experts vary on whether a recession will occur and to what extent. Unemployment
rates remain a key indicator of whether this adverse economic situation will occur. From a sales tax perspective, the forecast
does reflect a slowdown in taxable merchandise spending to 0.4% in FY 2023/24 as the higher cost of utilities, food and other
necessities limit dollars available for discretionary and non-essential items.
Food/Drugs 1.1% | 2.0%
Grocery stores saw a 3% increase on the sale of taxable goods this past quarter, due to the uptick in food costs. Recent polls showed cannabis usage and related revenues declined due to escalated product costs. Cannabis tax continues to be an alluring revenue source and many recent voter-approved measures will likely increase the permitted licenses throughout the state. Like other areas of this projection, a pullback in consumer spending keeps the estimates up only 1% in FY 2022/23, though spending in FY 2023/24 and beyond
should grow at a more traditional rate.
Fuel/Service Stations .4% | -7.7%
While war and global economic uncertainty caused petroleum per barrel costs to skyrocket last spring, gas prices have steadily dropped for two consecutive quarters. As of December 2022, the average per gallon rate is at its lowest point in 2022 and will continue to experience downward pressure. Other factors helping lower the associated sales tax include reduced oil barrel, diesel, and jet fuel prices, paring back on both consumption and demand for fuel and volatility tied to Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments. Due to recent results and outlooks, our forecast for actual sales tax receipts for the next three quarters (Q4’22-Q2’23) has been lowered. FY 2023/24 should see a decrease from the prior year’s historic gains linked to the events
noted herein.
General Consumer Goods 0.9% | -0.1%
Consumer spending and strong demand sustained positive sales tax receipts from general consumer goods retailers throughout the summer. Local tax receipts came in as expected for the third quarter of the year reflecting positive, yet modest gains. Trends observed this past spring were extended, reinforcing the impact that rising prices and elevated borrowing costs are having on low to middle income households. This was most apparent in the apparel categories. During the 2022 summer gas price peak, tax proceeds from discount department stores selling fuel increased due to shoppers wanting to purchase inexpensive fuel. HdL predicts returns will remain flat with a possible mild slowdown mid-2023. Beyond inflation and interest rates, low personal savings rates combined with growing credit card usage might indicate future headwinds for consumers.
Autos/Transportation 2.9% | -3.0%
Auto inventory available for sale is finally increasing from historic lows after recent supply chain disruptions and computer chip shortages ease. The lack of inventory caused the prices for both new and used vehicles to soar. However, the market now appears to be at an inflection point. Prior to the recent shift, expensive trucks and SUVs were in demand and US manufacturers overproduced. Now consumers prefer less costly, fuel-efficient vehicles which were in short supply amid summer’s high gas prices. Additionally, used car prices are declining on the wholesale market as quantities rise. Escalated financing costs bring additional uncertainty to a market already squeezed by affordability concerns. These factors are expected to crimp auto demand and result in a minor dip in revenue growth in the next fiscal year.
Building/Construction 4.3% | 1.0%
Statewide construction permit data continues to reflect vigorous growth as permit values rose 23% during the summer, the fourth consecutive quarter of growth. While this is a good sign, the San Joaquin Valley had signs of a slowdown as the majority of counties reported lower YTD permit values. Demand for new hotels, parking garages and office space remains strong. Higher mortgage interest rates dampened construction of single-family homes, but new construction has not stopped. The increased borrowing rates are fueling renovations on existing properties, and home improvement centers are reporting contractors still have sizeable project backlogs. Construction material costs remain above pre-pandemic levels. Pricing will be offset by major Infrastructure and Investment Jobs Act (IIJA) funded projects in 2023 and the corresponding demand for materials. By FY 2024/25, construction patterns will normalize as mortgage rates moderate and the mix of construction projects favors single-family homes more heavily.
Business/Industry 5.1% | 2.0%
The Business and Industry group swelled 10% during the Q3 sales period with most of the group’s 21 unique business types expanding. Comprising 24% of this category’s revenues, fulfillment centers surged 11.5%, boosted by early online holiday shopping. Industrial growth continued with strong demand, high cost of materials and a slight relief in supply chain and labor challenges. Project-related buying pushed the electrical equipment sector up double digits while technology investments and other B2B needs buoyed business services outcomes. HdL projects solid growth through the end of 2022, and modest overall improvement in 2023, into early 2024. Given the unique composition of this group, predictions vary based on the size and character of local businesses and industry taxpayers
within each community.
TOTAL 3.8% | 0.4%2022/23 | 2023/24
HdL Companies Consensus Forecast
December 2022
While Proposition 172 (1/2 Cent for Public Safety) growth projections closely track with the statewide Bradley-Burns, calculations vary somewhat due to the state’s allocation methodology. HdL forecasts a statewide increase of 3% for fiscal year 2022/23 and .46% for 2023/2024. As some counties rebound from significant sales tax losses these past two years, and the Bradley-Burns allocations were adjusted to reflect direct allocations for some internet-related sales, Proposition 172 pro-rata factors have shifted significantly for many counties.
NATIONAL AND STATEWIDEECONOMIC DRIVERS
U.S. Real GDP Growth 0.8% | 2.5%
National GDP has functionally stagnated; it was roughly the same level in Q3 of 2022 as it was in Q4 of 2021. During that period, prices in the U.S. rose sharply. In response to both underlying inflation and the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, interest rates have shot up, rising from record lows to levels that align with long term historical averages. While interest rates are not high from a long run perspective, their rapid increase from such a low floor has sent asset markets reeling. Today’s economy is fragile and highly susceptible to further negative shocks. Beacon Economics does not view a recession as a foregone conclusion as many other forecasts have suggested. However, we acknowledge that certain choices by policymakers in the months ahead could trigger an economic crisis.
U.S. Unemployment Rate 3.9% | 4.4%
The U.S. economy is not currently in a recession despite the lack of overall GDP growth. Despite the addition of 4 million payroll jobs since the start of this year, the U.S. unemployment rate remains well below 4%, and the job openings rate is at 6.3%, well above the pre-pandemic peak of 4.8%. At the same time, industrial production is at a record high, manufacturing orders are still rising and overall inventories remain low. The U.S. economy is clearly operating at capacity, the exact opposite of what economists refer to as a ‘recession’ — a period during which an economy, driven by some type of negative shock, produces less than it could. In contrast, today’s economy is one that is running at full speed. The U.S. is struggling with meeting demand, rather than a lack of demand.
CA Unemployment Rate 3.7% | 3.9%
Employers in the state have struggled to hire workers and fill positions. Typically, there are more unemployed workers in the state than there are job openings, but since the outbreak of the pandemic, this paradigm has flipped. Since October 2021, there have been more job openings in California than there are workers to fill these positions, meaning that worker availability has been the primary constraint on job growth in the state.
CA Total Nonfarm Employment Growth 3.4% | 1.9%
In October, California’s economy reached a milestone, having finally recovered all jobs that were lost during the outset of the pandemic. The state reached this milestone more slowly than the national economy and many other states, because California is experiencing a pronounced labor shortage. States that exhibited labor force expansion have also had the highest job growth, while job counts have yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels in states where the labor force contracted significantly. This phenomenon has also played out regionally within California, with job recovery closely tied to labor force expansion in many counties across the state.
CA Residential Building Permits 123,921 | 106,724
To meaningfully lower the costs of home ownership in California, the supply of housing must increase, particularly in the state’s largest metropolitan areas. California, given its high housing prices, is a net exporter of workers with lower levels of earnings and formal education, and a net importer of workers with higher levels of formal education. This represents a key policy challenge for the state as the economy produces (and needs) jobs that pay a range of wages. Ultimately, California, and particularly its large metropolitan areas, needs to allow more housing development to increase overall supply and prevent its lowest income workers from being priced out
of the state.
CA Median Existing Home Price $651,840 | $606,891
The drop in home sales has led to an increase in the number of available homes on the market, although the current level remains far below pre-pandemic inventories. This means that, despite the drop-off in sales, housing supply in the state remains incredibly constrained. Tight housing supply will have two consequences. First, when interest rates begin to fall, the consequent increase in buyers will again place upward pressure on housing prices. Second, while prices can and may go lower (prices have already started to turn down slightly), there is not enough supply in the market to provide the type of overhang that could lead to acute price declines.
2022/23 | 2023/24 2022/23 | 2023/24
Scan to view the HdL California Consensus Forecast 3Q22 webinar recording. Email solutions@hdlcompanies.com to learn more. HdL Companies Consensus Forecast
December 2022
STATEWIDESALES TAX TRENDS
Restaurants/Hotels 8.6% | 2.5%
Restaurant receipts once again improved compared to prior quarter filings, yet the increases are the result of higher menu prices compensating for slower foot traffic. Despite increased admission costs in the entertainment industry, the demand for experiences was high and Q3 recorded the largest percentage improvement over the comparable period. Regional performance varied, impacted by tourism trends and the return to office on a limited basis. Per the National Restaurant Association survey, 77% of consumers planned to order from restaurants during the holidays, which suggests visits lag 2019 levels. Ever-increasing prices and continued recovery are pushing hotels and leisure/entertainment to post strong gains. Though leisure travel remains hearty, business travel has yet to rebound. The restaurant and hotel industries do not expect patron prices to decrease, keeping the group’s forecast at an all-time high.
State and County Pools 6.2% | 4.5%
The combined efforts of online activities anchored to conveniences, access to large volumes of merchandise, and quick shipment pledges helped trigger 7% greater use taxes. Following earlier trends, gains came primarily from private party auto sales and small value business-based purchases. General retail sales have been flat or down in the pools this calendar year. Trends show a shift away from mobile ordering as individuals spent more on travel and/or experiences. E-commerce makes up about one sixth of overall retail sales and is predicted to grow modestly in the years ahead. Initial holiday shopping data divulged online spending up 8% as many merchants discounted products to move out bloated inventories. The percentage increases listed for this group reveal increased demand from industrial and equipment related orders along with greater cost of goods on the consumer front.
2022/23 | 2023/24 2022/23 | 2023/24
Beacon Economics LLC
310.571.3399 | BeaconEcon.com
Beacon Economics has proven to be one of the most thorough and accurate economic research/analytical forecasting firms in
the country. Their evaluation of the key drivers impacting local economies and tax revenues provides additional perspective to
HdL’s quarterly consensus updates. The collaboration and sharing of information between Beacon and HdL helps both companies
enhance the accuracy of the work that they perform for their respective clients.
HdL Companies
888.861.0220 | solutions@hdlcompanies.com | hdlcompanies.com
California’s allocation data trails actual sales activity by three to six months. HdL compensates for the lack of current information
by reviewing the latest reports, statistics and perspectives from fifty or more economists, analysts and trade associations to reach
a consensus on probable trends for coming quarters. The forecast is used to help project revenues based on statewide formulas
and for reference in tailoring sales tax estimates appropriate to each client’s specific demographics, tax base and regional trends.
888.861.0220 | solutions@hdlcompanies.com | hdlcompanies.com
Atascadero
Comprehensive Financial Strategy
April 2023
Attachment D:
California Governor’s Budget Summary
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
GOVERNOR'S BUDGET SUMMARY — 2023-24 119
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
OVERVIEW
Despite stubbornly high inflation, international instabilities, and the ongoing impacts of a
global public health pandemic, California and the nation experienced relatively strong
nonfarm job growth in 2022. The state recovered all COVID-19 Pandemic-induced job
losses as of October 2022, and the unemployment rate fell to a record low in
September 2022. While the labor market thrived, U.S. inflation became more
broad-based and reached a 40-year high of 8.5 percent by March 2022, leading the
Federal Reserve to start raising the target federal funds rate in efforts to cool the
overheated economy. (See figure on California and U.S. CPI Inflation Rates.)
Between March and December 2022, the Federal Reserve raised rates seven times to a
target range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent and has indicated that it will maintain high
target rates until inflation slows to the Federal Reserve’s target threshold of around
2 percent. The Governor’s Budget forecast projects economic growth to continue,
albeit at a slower pace in 2023 as interest rates remain high. Nonfarm job and total
wage growth are also expected to slow in 2023 before reverting to a trend of more
normalized growth.
The uncertain future paths for inflation and Federal Reserve policy pose short-term risks.
If high inflation persists longer than expected or if the Federal Reserve policy causes
greater pullbacks by businesses or individuals, the economy could tip into a mild
recession. This could lead to a steeper decline in investment and interest-sensitive
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
GOVERNOR'S BUDGET SUMMARY — 2023-24 120
consumption, which in turn could cause a larger decline in economic growth and
reduced nonfarm employment and personal income growth. However, upside risks
include a quicker-than-projected easing of inflation and an end to the Russian invasion
of Ukraine, which would lead to looser monetary policy and stronger economic
growth.
CALIFORNIA JOBS RECOVERY CONTINUES IN 2022 WHILE WAGE
GROWTH STALLS
As the state adjusted to living with COVID-19, nonfarm job growth was remarkably
strong, growing 3.2 percent annually—its largest growth since 2000. The state recovered
the last of the nearly 2.8 million jobs lost as a result of the COVID-19 Pandemic in
October. California added nearly 600,000 nonfarm jobs through the first ten months of
2022, a slower pace than in 2021 when the state added more than 900,000 jobs over
the same months. Nevertheless, California’s job gains in the first ten months of 2022
have accounted for 14.5 percent of the 4 million U.S. jobs added through October,
higher than its historical share of U.S. employment of around 12 percent.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
GOVERNOR'S BUDGET SUMMARY — 2023-24 121
Unlike the rapid nonfarm jobs recovery, the state’s overall labor force has yet to fully
recover to pre-pandemic levels as of October 2022. Despite strong annual labor force
growth of 1.7 percent—not seen since the 2000s—only 71 percent of the nearly 1 million
people who left the workforce in the first four months of the pandemic had returned as
of October 2022. However, California’s labor force participation rate is only
0.3 percentage point below its February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 62.6 percent even
as the state surpassed the nation’s labor force participation rate of 62.2 percent by
0.3 percentage point in June.
As the state’s labor force and employment recovery continued throughout 2022, the
state’s unemployment rate fell to a record-low rate of 3.8 percent in September.
Similarly, the nation’s unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent (its lowest rate since 1969)
in the same month. The state’s employment recovery has followed the nation’s trend
throughout the year. Even as labor market conditions remained strong, updated data
indicate that California’s average wage growth in 2021 and in early 2022 was lower
than initially estimated. This was in part due to a broad-based slowdown in total wage
growth in the first half of 2022, led by contractions in high-wage sectors such as
information, financial services, and professional and business services.
THE ECONOMIC FORECAST: SLOWING BUT CONTINUED GROWTH
Economic growth is expected to continue, albeit at a slow pace, through 2024 as high
interest rates decrease demand. (See figure on Contributions to U.S. Real GDP Growth.)
Consumption and exports are also projected to grow more slowly. As a result, U.S. real
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to be around 1 percent in 2023 and
2024.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
GOVERNOR'S BUDGET SUMMARY — 2023-24 122
STRONG STATE JOB GROWTH EXPECTED TO NORMALIZE
In line with slower expected U.S. real GDP growth, California’s nonfarm job growth is
expected to begin slowing in 2023. Reasons for slowing job growth include weakening
demand and the low unemployment environment driven by California’s strongest
economic recovery since 1960. Nonfarm jobs are then expected to increase across
most sectors in California in the second quarter of 2024 as monetary policy eases and,
by 2025, both the nation and the state's nonfarm employment growth are projected to
return to steady-state trends. The Governor's Budget forecast projects total employment
to remain above the pre-pandemic levels throughout the forecast window despite a
projected slowdown in job growth. (See figure on California Job Losses and Years to
Recovery.)
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
GOVERNOR'S BUDGET SUMMARY — 2023-24 123
California’s labor force is projected to grow by 1.4 percent in 2023 and approach its
pre-pandemic level even as the labor market weakens. It is projected to moderate
thereafter, averaging 0.7 percent growth between 2024 and 2026. Similar to the nation's
projections, the state's unemployment rate is projected to peak in 2025 at 5.2 percent
before falling to 5 percent in 2026. California’s unemployment rate—historically one to
two percent higher than the national rate—is expected to stay only one-half point
above the national rate over the forecast window.
INFLATION EXPECTED TO MODERATE
Inflation in 2021 was concentrated in energy and transportation and became more
broad-based in 2022, spreading to other components including food and shelter. U.S.
inflation peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022, but has since shown signs of easing,
slowing to 7.7 percent by October. Likewise, California’s inflation peaked at 8.3 percent
in June and dropped slightly to 7.5 percent by August, the latest available data when
finalizing the forecast.
Despite recent reports of slowing inflation, it remains broad-based but increasingly
driven by a backward-looking shelter inflation, which is based on rental contracts over
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
GOVERNOR'S BUDGET SUMMARY — 2023-24 124
a fixed period (for example, 6 months or 12 months) and represents about one-third of
the overall inflation index. Therefore, shelter inflation tends to decline more slowly than
other components. While port and trucking congestion continue to ease, the ongoing
shortage of microchips for vehicles continues to hamper production and thus keep new
vehicle prices elevated. Food and fuel prices rose sharply after the Russian invasion of
Ukraine and have since declined but remain higher than a year ago.
Going forward, headline inflation is expected to continue to decelerate as the labor
market cools due to the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy, supply chain issues
continue to resolve, and measured inflation incorporates recent contract rent
decreases. However, the forecast projects that the deceleration in shelter inflation will
lag other components, reflecting the increases in rents in late 2021 and early 2022. (See
figure on Economic Indicators at the end of this chapter.)
MODEST WAGE GROWTH EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD
With the expected easing of inflation and the winding down of the Federal Reserve’s
tight monetary policy, California average wage growth is projected to moderate
throughout the forecast period in comparison to the growth of 11.1 percent and
7.4 percent in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The forecast reflects data revisions released
in September 2022 showing a high-wage-sector-driven contraction in total wages in
early 2022. Average wages are projected to grow by 3.4 percent in 2023 before
averaging 3.6 percent between 2024 and 2026.
PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH REFLECTS MODERATING WAGE GROWTH
Personal income is projected to have continued growth through 2025, albeit at a slower
rate in part due to updated historical data and the labor market response to tighter
monetary policy. The Governor’s Budget forecast incorporates the second quarter
personal income data release, which included revisions to historical data going back to
2017 reflecting more accurate wage data. The data revisions showed a broad-based
slowdown in most personal income components, and slower overall headline growth
than previously estimated. (See figure on Personal Income Components.) Nevertheless,
tighter monetary policy is also expected to curtail headline personal income growth
through the forecast window.
Despite the downward revisions to total wages, which makes up more than half of total
personal income, the Governor’s Budget forecast projects total wages will drive
personal income growth. As high interest rates are assumed to cause nonfarm job
growth to slow in 2023 and early 2024, total wage growth is expected to see a similar
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
GOVERNOR'S BUDGET SUMMARY — 2023-24 125
slowdown. Slower job growth will also be reflected in proprietors’ income, which covers
the profits of non-corporate businesses and is an indicator of business activity. Business
activity is expected to slow due to high interest rates and inflation pushing up business
costs, in turn lowering income.
Property income is the sum of interest, rental, and dividend income and is generally
driven by interest income. Interest income is projected to grow in line with the expected
trajectory of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases, peaking in 2023 with
double-digit growth of 10.8 percent. Rental income is a lagged indicator as it represents
contract rents from leases signed over the previous 12 months and tends to follow
shelter inflation. It is projected to peak in 2022 due to increases in asking rents in late
2021 and later decelerate through the remainder of the forecast period in line with
current rent decreases. Dividend income growth is expected to slow as higher interest
rates lead to more risk and investor uncertainty in the stock market. The forecast
assumes interest rates will begin to ease by the end of 2023. Beginning in 2024,
California personal income is expected to begin reverting to its historical growth trends,
averaging 4.7 percent growth in 2025 and 2026.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
GOVERNOR'S BUDGET SUMMARY — 2023-24 126
HOUSING SHORTAGE PERSISTS
California continues to face a critical housing shortage despite recent declines in the
working-age population and various legislative efforts to ease building restrictions.
Between January 2000 and January 2022, the state gained 5.9 million new households,
but only an additional 2.5 million housing units. Ongoing growth in housing is essential to
support long term economic growth in the state. Although the Governor’s Budget
forecast projects California to average 122,000 permits in 2023, the state would need to
permit 180,000 units annually (according to the California Department of Housing and
Community Development) to meet housing needs. While building is expected to remain
below the necessary number of homes needed to address the state’s housing
shortage, higher interest rates are expected to limit growth in 2023 and 2024, then as
interest rates fall, permit growth is projected to increase in 2025 and 2026.
RISKS TO THE FORECAST
The possibility of inflation falling more slowly than expected, or of the Federal Reserve
overshooting its policy by tightening more than necessary, poses significant risk to the
Governor’s Budget forecast. The Federal Reserve has signaled ongoing increases to the
target federal funds rate in order to return inflation to its long-term target of around
2 percent, and policy could be tighter than expected if high inflation persists longer
than expected. It typically takes several months for the economy to absorb the full
effect of policy changes, and there is a risk that the Federal Reserve could raise target
interest rates too high and too fast, causing tight credit conditions that may discourage
economic activity even after inflation has returned to normal. This could deepen the
expected economic slowdown and push the economy into a mild recession.
Overreactions from individuals, businesses, and markets to the Federal Reserve’s
policies, for example, by assuming that future monetary policy would be tighter than it
turns out to be and curtailing expansion plans accordingly, could have a similar
impact.
A mild recession along the lines described above would likely entail steeper declines in
investment and interest-sensitive consumption than in the Governor’s Budget baseline
forecast. To that end, the Department of Finance has modeled a Recession scenario
that projects California nonfarm employment to contract in late 2023 through 2024.
Personal income would also grow more slowly in this scenario, as cumulative state
personal income would be $132 billion lower over the forecast window than in the
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
GOVERNOR'S BUDGET SUMMARY — 2023-24 127
baseline forecast. (See figures on Nonfarm Employment Growth Comparison and
Personal Income Growth Comparison.)
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
GOVERNOR'S BUDGET SUMMARY — 2023-24 128
Conditions in China also present a potential forecast risk, as turmoil stemming from
continued lockdowns under a zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy, related unrest, and a
potential financial crisis could disrupt the global economy. China has also threatened
an invasion of Taiwan, which could be more disruptive to the global supply chain than
the Russian invasion of Ukraine as Taiwan is the world’s largest supplier of
semiconductors.
California home prices fell in the second half of 2022, but a steeper decline could
depress permit activity more than expected, reducing construction employment and
overall economic activity in the state in the short term. While lower housing costs would
likely improve the state’s long-term competitive position, a sudden drop could lead to a
sustained construction slump as it did after the collapse of the housing bubble before
the Great Recession.
Potential upside risks to the forecast include faster-than-expected easing of inflation
and resolution of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which could revive European
economic growth and increase demand for U.S. exports. Inflationary cooling over the
next several months in line with the deceleration in October could lead to less restrictive
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
GOVERNOR'S BUDGET SUMMARY — 2023-24 129
monetary policy than expected. Resulting lower interest rates could boost construction
spending and other investment.